TalcottWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m leaning towards a subpar outcome for swct but another 24-36hrs is needed. Would rather be here vs E Mass.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Sooo.. heh 12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick? sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sooo.. heh 12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick? sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate. and then there's this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Lots of possibilities with this as has been said. Far from a solution still. This is the middle term where things usually go haywire(every event seems to have them), and that’s where we’re at now. Watch the ensembles now, and we look for trends. Nobody out of the game yet with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Most would take that Morch firehose storm from 2013. One of my favorite storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m leaning towards a subpar outcome for swct but another 24-36hrs is needed. Let's just ride the UKIE for today.....it has nothing tomorrow night and a ton early next week. Can it be that bad? Lol..... Maybe this is the one, two punch we have been waiting for around here? I do worry the GFS has the right idea, progressive and further NE. But who knows at this point, still trying to figure out tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most would take that Morch firehose storm from 2013. One of my favorite storms Ukie almost pulled it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Let's just ride the UKIE for today.....it has nothing tomorrow night and a ton early next week. Can it be that bad? Lol..... Maybe this is the one, two punch we have been waiting for around here? I do worry the GFS has the right idea, progressive and further NE. But who knows at this point, still trying to figure out tomorrow night. Stop worrying…we can’t figure to tomorrow night yet, and folks think this is a loss lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I wouldn't worry too much with what models have for 2m temps verbatim, no matter the solution and forgot the garbage snowfall maps. The degree of upper-level dynamics which will be in place will support the potential for rapid deepening and cyclogenesis (obviously it's a matter of getting everything to phase and align). In the event we see a favorable phase, dynamics will then take over. Combination of increasing llvl convergence and ulvl divergence along will work to cool the profile and if you can get a favorable low track/placement you'll even increase the odds for a cold enough profile down to the coast. But the one thing models will struggle with is the 2M temperatures in these scenarios. Remember, they're going to want to scale towards climo in a sense. but if you were to look at 2M temps at this stage and see 34-35 (even in the most explosive runs), I would be willing to bet at verification time the temps are more 32-33. Dynamics will suffice @Typhoon Tip 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie almost pulled it off. Back up that 967 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dynamics will suffice @Typhoon Tip Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. We have the MJO going into 8 and 1 at a high amplitude so that should lead to a couple chances after this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Stop worrying…we can’t figure to tomorrow night yet, and folks think this is a loss lol? No worries here, I went into this storm hoping for a ton, but expecting a slushy inch. I said yesterday that I was expecting more snow Saturday morning than early next week and will stick to that forecast....Lets see what the Euro shows in an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. We have the MJO going into 8 and 1 at a high amplitude so that should lead to a couple chances after this threat. If this ends up shit, I'm riding off into the seasonal sunset. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sooo.. heh 12z's have either trended warmer, or a big waste of time ... take a pick? sounds like March D6 forecasting, incarnate. 12z trends have not been favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. Nuances and fine details George…we had chances this year in some good looks, but we couldn’t capitalize due to the finer details porking us. One big thing ain’t gonna always due the trick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IDK. I don’t have a feel for this yet. Rain is on the table though imo. Yeah not spiking any footballs by any means, just a feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 At least we won't have to deal with this uncertainty once severe weather season comes. It's cold front approaches, we get severe weather, boom...easy peasy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, George001 said: Man I can’t wait for a potent west based nino to develop, hopefully that will mean we won’t need to worry about cold air every storm threat. For now I’d like to just get one big snow to end this non winter. We have the MJO going into 8 and 1 at a high amplitude so that should lead to a couple chances after this threat. Go big or go home. Luckily spring is right around the corner literally. Unfortunately I see a crappy couple months ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 12z trends have not been favorable. depends on where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: depends on where you live. Both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If this ends up shit, I'm riding off into the seasonal sunset. You'll be back for the 3/18 and 3/23 threats. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Every 12z model gave a different solution. I don't really have a take either way. Way too complicated to have an idea this early IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nuances and fine details George…we had chances this year in some good looks, but we couldn’t capitalize due to the finer details opening us. One big thing ain’t gonna always due the truck. That’s true, we got unlucky with the pattern in December, and March is to be decided but the confluence being too strong for wave 1 and too weak for wave 2 is just rotten luck. However, we also had a shitty longwave pattern in the heart of winter, it feels like we had a bad pattern overall and the bad luck we got took us from below average to rat. Ray has some good information on his blog about enso structure, and he mentioned that the 2 worst enso state+structure combinations we can get are an East based nino and a modoki (west based) Nina. These effects are amplified when the enso event is stronger and well coupled. A moderate or stronger modoki Nina is bad news if you are looking for cold and snow in the east. We basically had the same enso configuration as 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I don’t want to say things look bad but I bought a new toaster today and put it on a very rickety shelf above my bathtub 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Both of us. well the highly amped runs slamming into CT were a non starter here. now more options on the table at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: I don’t want to say things look bad but I bought a new toaster today and put in on a very rickety shelf above my bathtub Save that for "severe" season. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: I don’t want to say things look bad but I bought a new toaster today and put in on a very rickety shelf above my bathtub Well, scooter has had caution flags up for days, so he is at peace with his decision 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Save that for "severe" season. Oh with severe I fully expect to be a jilted lover each time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, George001 said: That’s true, we got unlucky with the pattern in December, and March is to be decided but the confluence being too strong for wave 1 and too weak for wave 2 is just rotten luck. However, we also had a shitty longwave pattern in the heart of winter, it feels like we had a bad pattern overall and the bad luck we got took us from below average to rat. Ray has some good information on his blog about enso structure, and he mentioned that the 2 worst enso state+structure combinations we can get are an East based nino and a modoki (west based) Nina. These effects are amplified when the enso event is stronger and well coupled. A moderate or stronger modoki Nina is bad news if you are looking for cold and snow in the east. We basically had the same enso configuration as 2011-2012. This la nina ended up being even more hostile than 2011-2012..that was a modest to moderate modoki....this was equal intensity, but extraordinarily well coupled. Polar domain has been the big difference between this year and 2011-2012, but we haven't taken advantage of it in terms of snow...yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Not shook by 12z, zero continuity so nothing to parse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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