Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not caving. I’d say gfs made some nudges north too. Maybe it’s slightly moving toward it, but I’m tossing it for now. 

I see a consensus emerging a good portion of this sub-forum members won't like ( unfortunately ...)

Snow/mix contention is along Rt 2 ... but for a distance S, will probably have to contend with some mixing negotiation that terminates to a skunk event for the Pike and points S - limited to no ZR for this affair.

N of Rt 2 ... snow and mix fades to all snow, and determining stack is about temperature/ratios. 

All regions do not suffer more than a medium impact.   Obviously where all rain...the impact is defined as just a moderate QPF event. 

This is what I would be drawing my weather maps.  Whether that consensus may or may not meanders N or S from this interpretation ... who knows. But as is -

[codfishsnowman]

It's ok, at least we had a decent event a few days ago. This is just not a S of Pike event.

At least there's been active potential wintry threats to track. I am more discouraged by the 09-10 style air mass.

[weatherwiz]

There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night.

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There might be a decent little pocket of convection which traverses West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and maybe southern New Jersey. Depending how robust and organized this could certainly rob a quite a bit of moisture like Ullmark robbed the Flames the other night.

Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Are you going to follow the severe weather outbreak in the south this evening?

Yeah I'll be watching that while watching hokey. I'm a bit skeptical as to whether it will play out as advertised though. I think that large Slight risk tomorrow is a bit aggressive as well. That Artificial Intelligence severe weather tool that gets tossed around like candy now (I forget what it is) kind of drives me nuts. 

[George001]

Yeah, the models don’t look that far apart. Most have the low going over Nantucket. The more north guidance has the low going over the elbow and the gfs is a bit se of Nantucket, but not by much. I know there are big differences in the clown maps when looking at say gfs vs nam, but those clown maps suck and are probably going to be wrong. 10:1 doesn’t work when there is mixing or thermals are marginal, in reality especially for borderline areas they will be lower. Those snow depth maps are more realistic.

[Typhoon Tip]

... and I don't see any compelling reason why a Euro/NAM blend is more useful than the cold guidance camp. 

I would recommend a whole membership consensus here.  

There are equal logics in support of either - none of which can be convincingly refuted at this time.  Hence the inclusive tact.

Having said all that .. yeah, it's possible that a flat-out colder solution "wins" or vice versa, but the reasons for that would require some sort of reanalysis/research.  Course of lesser regret is the gray route

 

[ORH_wxman]

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

Already did 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z nam running

at 6z 5/7/850 lows all tracked further S by a couple ticks to help NH/Ma border general vicinity significantly 

[UnitedWx]

24 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

 This is just not a S of Pike event.

 

You can't say that 100 percent either. Even the Euro shows frozen down into CT. I feel there's lots on here Meh'ing anything now that doesn't show a foot plus. Lots of MA could easily be in for a good accumulation

[ROOSTA]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

S-W-E-E-T!
Locked and loaded...FIRE!
Liking the evolution to hopeful outcome for you's guys.

----------------
Meanwhile- mowing season has begun here. Time to break-out the 72" Ferris, all 10 acres.
Million dollar property.
Momma I'm coming home.

[weatherwiz]

I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours

[Sled]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

I’ll take it to get the sand and salt crap off the roads!

Pretty sure DOT would send em out to salt for rain at this point, wouldn't want to save money for any reason- That'd be silly

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

notice how the split in opinion seems to be function of latitude and longitude and which side of the r/s line you're on

Ironically, no this wasn’t the case with my opinion.  

My only point was that I believe the GFS had the better idea from the get go with this system.,it was better with the strength of the block/confluence.  And it had the right idea of not plowing the primary as far north/into Michigan, or as far west, like the Euro was showing Tuesday and early Wednesday. Just my take.  

But whatever,  lm at 11.3” on the season, at least I made it to double digits. What a horrible season. 
 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam ULL weaker Then 6z  as it crosses ILL/Indiana border 

but heights are a wee bit higher over NY ahead of it 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish COD had point-and-click soundings for the HRRR. TT is stuck at 33 hours

Has happened quite a bit lately. Probably from all of us seeing the post and inundating their server lol

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Sled said:

Pretty sure DOT would send em out to salt for rain at this point, wouldn't want to save money for any reason- That'd be silly

They were doing that this morning in Simsbury

[CoastalWx]

NAM still sucks. 

[CoastalWx]

Only hope is that maybe the low will slide east more Saturday morning if I am interpreting H5. But meh.

[dryslot]

SE ridge flexing a bit on the 12z Nam, This runs going to end up a few tics north of 06z it seems out west.

[Sled]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

They were doing that this morning in Simsbury

Id rather them just give the employees the overtime to twiddle their thumbs than spread that crap all over the roads. I weep for my truck every time I have to drive around on this crap.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM still sucks. 

Let me guess, torched mid-levels and sleet line to Manchester? 

[MuddyWx]

the differences at 42 hrs on the 12z NAM and 48 hrs on the 6z GFS are insane

[SouthCoastMA]

It has the primary in Detroit which means game over south of NH border.  i'm not buying it

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Let me guess, torched mid-levels and sleet line to Manchester? 

Primary stronger and further west. 

[HinghamBoss]

Based on overnight trends, I'm setting my sights on breaking the biggest storm of the season of 3" weeeee.  Fun to look at HRRR and GFS, but seasonal trends cannot be ignored.

[TalcottWx]

The NAM is tossed

[CoastalWx]

Only thing I can see is maybe a better CCB perhaps like I mentioned earlier. lets see.

[dendrite]

Ray enjoying this run