EastonSN+ Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either What's wrong with the GFS? The GEFS was always a couple days behind and while not showing the same KU potential, still shows a couple snow events (op) as well as a good pattern (GEFS). So having the GFS/GEFS as a floor is great IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Posting these for NO OTHER REASON than to watch trends over the next 7-10 days. Four of 51 members pop the cork on a 12"+ event centered around 3/11. Let's see where this heads in the coming days. Will be encouraging to see more members go up once inside 7 days especially on EURO and CMC. The trends from day 10-12 into days 5-7 have not been favorable this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Everyone discounting the GFS and throwing it out needs to remember it was the first one to show Friday/Saturday as being a non event. The Euro and CMC kept showing a snowstorm this weekend run after run. Not saying the GFS is going to be right, but I would not just toss it in the trash either Different pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Different pattern Correct me if I’m wrong, but to me when it comes to the “big ones” the CMC and especially the Euro sniffs them out 7+ days out, while the GFS lags behind only to catch on as we get closer in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Light sleet in North Smithtown. 40⁰ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Complete list of March 1 or 2 day snowfall totals > 4.5 inches arranged by dates that they ended (daily record amount shown if no qualifying storms) Storm ended MAR 01 __ "blizzard of 1914" see 2nd for total _ 7.7" 2005 (4.8" Feb 28, 2.9" Mar 1) MAR 02 __ 1914 14.5" (13.5" + 1.0") __ 1896 10.0" (1d) __ 2009 8.3" (1.8" + 6.5") __ 4.6" 1996 (1d) MAR 03 __ 1960 storm see below for total _ 7.0" 2019 (4.0" + 3.0") MAR 04 __ 1960 14.5" (12.5" + 2.0") __ 6.0" 1917 (1d) __ 2019 additional 2.0" MAR 05 __ 1981 8.6" (1d) MAR 06 __ 1916 7.6" (1d) __ 4.0" more fell on 8th 1916 __ MAR 07 __ 1915 7.7" (6.9" + 0.8"), 1923 7.3" (5.4" + 1.9"), 1870 6.0" (1d), MAR 08 __ 1941 18.1" (2.4" + 15.7") __4.5" 1996 (1d) __ also 4.0" 1d 1875, 12.8" 1st - 8th in four events MAR 09 __ 1928 5.3" (1d) MAR 10 __ 1907 6.0" (1d) MAR 11 __ 1934 5.6" (4.5" + 1.1") MAR 12 __ Blizzard of 1888 see below for totals MAR 13 __ 1888 19.5" (16.5" + 3.0") _ 20.9" incl 1.4" 14th MAR 14 __ 1993 10.6" (10.2" + 0.4") __ 2017 7.6" (prec 1.97") MAR 15 __ 1906 6.0" (1d) MAR 16 __ 1896 12.0" (3.6" + 8.4") _ 2007 5.5" (prec 2.03") MAR 17 __ 1877 3.5" (1d) MAR 18 __ 1892 8.0" (0.9" + 7.1") MAR 19 __ 1956 11.6" (3.8" + 7.8") MAR 20 __ 1944 4.8" (2.0" + 2.8") MAR 21 __ 1958 11.8" (4.7" + 7.1") .. 2018 (8.2") (1d) 8.4" incl 0.2" 22nd MAR 22 __ 1967 9.8" (0.8" + 9.0") MAR 23 __ 1896 4.3" (+0.2" 24th) equalled 1d 4.5" 1883 30th (there has never been a 2d snowfall total greater than 4.5" Mar 23-31 although Mar 24, 1912 has missing data for snowfall, and a storm that was cold enough for some of the heavy precip 1.37" reported to have been snow) APRIL has had a total of seven more one- or two-day snowfalls greater than 5.0" ... 8.2" Apr 1, 1924 5.5" Apr 2, 2018 10.2" Apr 3-4 1915 (10.0" + 0.2") 6.5" Apr 5 1944 9.6" Apr 6 1982 6.4" Apr 9 1917 (6.5" incl 0.1" 8th) 10.0" Apr 13-14 1875 (8.7" + 1.3") 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Light sleet in North Smithtown. 40⁰ Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. Yup. Kinda getting used to it. At least the clear days/moments have tended to be brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. and it was so nice and sunny this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Light rain/sleet mix. Temp 42. The March sun felt invigorating earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. The clouds the last two days have helped keep the snow around longer than I expected although next few days are really warm and rainy so it’ll be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Was snowing in Syosset earlier. We arent going to see the sun until Sunday. We have had many cloudy days lately. Was just outside and was just mist here. Yep, lousy days ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s ahead of a cold front. Showers are possible. Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday. From Philadelphia to New York City, the storm will likely be mostly or all rain. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. After a somewhat warmer than normal start, a colder regime will likely develop during the second week of the month and could last into the closing week of March. Overall, March will likely wind up colder than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.460 today. On February 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.980 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.729 (RMM). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Had to borrow from the MA forum. What a crazy year! Newport Beach? Isn't that near LA in the OC? It's awesome they deserve it. Snow looks dirty here anyway lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution. Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture. March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March. While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.' 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I don't want to get pulled into an event that I don't like at all but the 0Z RGEM did seem to come in colder with the sleet line very close to northern parts of the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Pretty good video by DT (WxRisk) on the evolving pattern, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing. None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 None of the 0z models have more than an inch of snow even up here in Rockland, most have no snow at all. The midlevels are torched by the time the precip starts. It’s sleet to rain at best south of I-84Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done.The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done. The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods. But this storm is key to getting the 'big one' if indeed that happens. People just need to be a little patient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Im still in the camp of a off cape may transfer.. then we might be talking wintry weather shifting south. Any shifts east and south would help many in this forum. Not totally impossible that the blocking is a bit stronger then modeled also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done.The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods. I’m 70 miles North and I’m forecasted for 3-6”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.'One of the best things I’ve read on these boards - nicely done!. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Im still in the camp of a off cape may transfer.. then we might be talking wintry weather shifting south. Any shifts east and south would help many in this forum. Not totally impossible that the blocking is a bit stronger then modeled also. Meh I thought this would also transfer further south due to the blocking but that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Pretty good discussion from Mt. Holly for the storm later Friday into Saturday. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...The main story for this part of the forecast is the storm system expected for Friday into early Saturday. Guidance continues to hint at a slower system overall, which makes sense given the developing blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. Much of the forecast area may not see any precip until Friday afternoon or even the early evening. Thinking is still that a primary low will track north and east from Texas towards the lower Great Lakes from late day Thursday to late day Friday. A secondary low will then take shape Friday night near or just west of Delmarva with this low then tracking northeast towards Long Island by Saturday morning as it strengthens and takes overas the main low. This is generally not a favorably track for wintry precip for the urban corridor but we still expect there will be some snow and ice with this system farther north towardsthe I-78 and especially the I-80 corridor. Other threats with this system will be strong winds near the coast, potentially getting close to advisory levels, with the increasing threat forcoastal flooding as well (detailed in the coastal flooding section below). Finally, there will be at least some potential for localized freshwater flooding Friday night in any heavier bands of rain that set up. For Friday, with the slower timing, there could even a bit of filtered sunshine in the early morning before clouds thicken andlower by afternoon. Precip will arrive from west to east and could develop as early as around midday over Delmarva before spreading east through the rest of the area during the afternoon. Temperatures will get into the low to mid 40s with mid 30s in the Poconos. Much of the area except our far northerncounties (Carbon and Monroe in PA and Sussex County, NJ) could see precip start as rain before temperatures cool through the late afternoon into the early evening due to evaporational cooling effects. At this point though, continue to think a laterarrival with warmer temperatures should preclude any wintry impacts near the I-95 corridor. Farther north though, any rain should trend towards a wintry mix near the I-78 corridor and especially and north of the I-80 corridor as we get into Friday evening. This will be due to temperatures cooling at the surfaceas warmer air moves in aloft. Friday evening into the overnight is when the heaviest precip with the storm is expected as the secondary low develops and basically tracks right through moving from Delmarva northeast through NJ. This will draw warmer air from the south and southeast near and south of the storm's track. In fact, forecastmodels are indicating there will be a 60+ knot LLJ near 925 mb aiding in moisture transport into the area and also resulting inincreasing winds, especially near the coast where E/SE winds may gust 35 to 45 mph. There may even be some embedded thunder here as well due to elevated convection from the warmer air advecting in aloft. Otherwise, expect rain, heavy at times, Friday night with a wintry mix continuing farther north near/north of I-78 but with this transition zone eventually shifting a bit farther to the north as the low tracks across NewJersey. The precip should eventually wind down west to east by late Friday night or early Saturday. In terms of accumulations, still expecting upwards of 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet near and north of I-80 with the potential for a tenth to quarter inch of ice accretion over Carbon/Monroe County due to to freezing rain.Snow accumulations should quickly decrease heading farther south of I-80. In terms of rainfall accumulations, the overnightsuite of guidance did increase QPF a bit, with a general 1-1.5 inches of rain expected for the urban corridor, NJ Coastal Plain, and Lehigh Valley. Currently have lesser amounts over Delmarva and far South Jersey, where values range from 0.5-1 inch. Would not be surprised to see some spots get near/over 2 inches of rain, especially from the I-95 corridor on east. Will have to watch for any freshwater flooding issues, especially in urban areas. WPC has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Still a lot of factors at play here. While confidence is increasing in totals/impacts, there could be some changes as a shift in development or track of the secondary low could have implications in snow/ice totals. For Saturday, storm exits to the east but there may be some scattered lingering showers around over portions of eastern PA and northern NJ. Otherwise, expect considerable clouds around with highs near 40 over the southern Poconos and NW NJ, around 50 near the urban corridor, and into the 50s farther south/east.Saturday night could feature some snow showers up north as a weak shortwave passes north of the region. Any snow accumulations will be light, less than a half inch. No precipitation is expected for Saturday night south of the I-78 corridor. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GFS GEFS is later with the good period compared to GEPS and EPS. Let's hope........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Lowest snow seasons through February and their progression through April 15th. Mean additional snowfall: 3.2". Maximum in the sample: 9.4". Possible insight: Prospects for a very snowy March or a big March snowstorm are probably low, if the historic experience is representative. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now