TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: It was hardly a thumping. The area is hurting badly for snow. Relative to norms it’s downright hideous. Can’t be worse than sne 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: It was hardly a thumping. The area is hurting badly for snow. Relative to norms it’s downright hideous. I meant for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs If the deepest cold was advecting from the northern plains and central Canada behind it, I'd agree with your concerns - the primary will want to hang on, and bend back. But the airmass behind it is relatively quite warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Can’t be worse than sne Lol 4-5” sounds like a pretty robust seasonal total at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well we got METS/and others selling everything at this point S of pike now? Who the F knows anymore… They are scared of the primary and most of those posts are out of area. I can think of many good snows with a dying primary the Lakes. Shit 1888 had a 1004 over Lake Superior. As long as confluence continues and the best model show a storm I am all in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: 4-5” Nice you whined your self to a nice cover. Come down here and look at my grass but you don't see me o me o mying. Come on man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: They are scared of the primary and most of those posts are out of area. I can think of many good snows with a dying primary the Lakes. Shit 1888 had a 1004 over Lake Superior. As long as confluence continues and the best model show a storm I am all in. Thanks for the info. Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice you whined your self to a nice cover. Come down here and look at my grass but you don't see me o me o mying. Come on man Ya…4.3” on the season lol. So if I get 5” from this next potential, I more than double my season total to date. I’m in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya…4.3” on the season lol. So if I get 5” from this next potential, I more than double my season total to date. I’m in too. At 6” for the season. I’m not in yet but there’s no denying the signal. This one—as long as there’s no big reversal in the broader setup that allows for a north trend—looks legit here in CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 We shouldn't get too concerned or tied up with what's happening with the models today or last night. I think what we're seeing is there's going to be some fluctuations. Today is Thursday. Is this coming next Monday night into Tuesday. A very good signal is there that it will be snow. But it is going to fluctuate on what totals it will show. We have some time. I think we'll know more by Sunday on what exactly we're going to see as far as totals go and what area see the most. But this is the best signal we've seen all winter for southern New England at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This looks like a good dumping on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Don’t see a solution I hate yet at 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 the GEFS actually made a move in the colder direction. lower downstream heights and touch more confluence 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian tries too, but a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours. I am not seeing it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W A lot of those individual members leave a lot to be desired here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A lot of those individual members leave a lot to be desired here George in deep trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: George in deep trouble? Produce or else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: George in deep trouble? Who knows, this is why you approach with caution at this lead. The gfs mean is being skewed by a couple big members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not that good for the southern half of CT but just one run. Regardless, I mentioned to pope earlier this morning the hedge is for a CNE max hit, not mid atl. We’ll see though. Oh god… here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Oh god… here we go It’s just my initial hedge from last night but a) I am a nobody and b) it’s d5… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Dr no should be running shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 slightly OT as we wait for the ECMWF, but the GEFS synoptically looks pretty great for 3/4. stout -NAO and a 50/50 signal as well with a digging trough over the eastern half of the country this is a good signal for a storm that'll be affected by confluence with the nascent 50/50 and -NAO dipole 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Its running now, I have it out to hr 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoth said: I mean, even if the models throw out HECS after HECS over the next five days, I’m so snakebitten this season that I won’t be able to take them seriously until I see Ryan standing in a business suit in the NBC parking lot weening out in 5”/hr rates. Yeah that little garden thing they made out back that I haven’t seen in action in quite some time. I’m with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s just my initial hedge from last night but a) I am a nobody and b) it’s d5… It’s a valid observation brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't get these skeptical posts. Are you not looking at the evolution ,the confluence, the antecedent conditions, the huge amount of low dewpoints and cold air pumping in. Models are all showing the same thing. Me either. Some are so butt hurt with this season that irrationality abounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Dr no should be running shortly Dr. No has been downgraded to Intern i don't know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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