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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs 

If the deepest cold was advecting from the northern plains and central Canada behind it, I'd agree with your concerns - the primary will want to hang on, and bend back.

But the airmass behind it is relatively quite warm.

 

gfs_Td2m_us_19.png

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we got METS/and others selling everything at this point S of pike now? Who the F knows anymore…

They are scared of the primary and most of those posts are out of area. I can think of many good snows with a dying primary the Lakes. Shit 1888 had a 1004 over Lake Superior. As long as confluence continues and the best model show a storm I am all in.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

They are scared of the primary and most of those posts are out of area. I can think of many good snows with a dying primary the Lakes. Shit 1888 had a 1004 over Lake Superior. As long as confluence continues and the best model show a storm I am all in.

Thanks for the info. Appreciated. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…4.3” on the season lol. So if I get 5” from this next potential,  I more than double my season total to date. I’m in too.  

At 6” for the season. I’m not in yet but there’s no denying the signal. This one—as long as there’s no big reversal in the broader setup that allows for a north trend—looks legit here in CT. 

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We shouldn't get too concerned or tied up with what's happening with the models today or last night. I think what we're seeing is there's going to be some fluctuations. Today is Thursday. Is this coming next Monday night into Tuesday. A very good signal is there that it will be snow. But it is going to fluctuate on what totals it will show. We have some time. I think we'll know more by Sunday on what exactly we're going to see as far as totals go and what area see the most. But this is the best signal we've seen all winter for southern New England at least.

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interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-7661200.thumb.png.ca0dcbe1972da70e1f2ff32e408cc535.png

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

1521842140_Screenshot2023-02-23121329.png.196d085d473e824119bad13713d07339.png

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-7661200.thumb.png.ca0dcbe1972da70e1f2ff32e408cc535.png

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

1521842140_Screenshot2023-02-23121329.png.196d085d473e824119bad13713d07339.png

There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours.  I am not seeing it though.

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-7661200.thumb.png.ca0dcbe1972da70e1f2ff32e408cc535.png

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching, as it seems that the heights out west as the S/W ejects have a significant impact on the amount of latitude gain. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

1521842140_Screenshot2023-02-23121329.png.196d085d473e824119bad13713d07339.png

A lot of those individual members leave a lot to be desired here 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I mean, even if the models throw out HECS after HECS over the next five days, I’m so snakebitten this season that I won’t be able to take them seriously until I see Ryan standing in a business suit in the NBC parking lot weening out in 5”/hr rates. 

Yeah that little garden thing they made out back that I haven’t seen in action in quite some time. I’m with you 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't get these skeptical posts. Are you not looking at the evolution ,the confluence, the antecedent conditions, the huge amount of low dewpoints and cold air pumping in.  Models are all showing the same thing.

Me either. Some are so butt hurt with this season that irrationality abounds

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