Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 And yeah that 16z run of the HRRR is robust. Seems like in this setup there may only be one or two dominant cells but they may be INTENSE ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Left moving supercell parameter is doing better than the normal supercell composite parameter. Also parameters as a whole seem JUICED along and east of a line pretty much bisecting MoCo running SW to NE generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1999.html Watch Likely DISCUSSION...An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes/OH Valley will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon. Modest ascent preceding this feature and low-level convergence along a surface cold front will likely foster robust convective initiation within the next 1-2 hours (by around 3 PM EDT) across parts of western/central NC into the coastal Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime heating has already warmed surface temperatures into the upper 80s and 90s across this region. A rather moist airmass, with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2+ inches and surface dewpoints generally in the 70s, should help offset poor mid-level lapse rates to some extent. Around 1500-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE has already developed given the ample diurnal heating that has occurred. While weak west-southwesterly low-level winds exist, they do strengthen with height to around 45-60 kt through mid levels. Related 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will act to organize updrafts, with a mix of bowing clusters and supercells possible. Isolated severe hail may occur with the more discrete convection that initially develops. A tendency for upscale growth into multiple clusters appears likely given the linear forcing of the front and mainly boundary-parallel flow aloft. Scattered damaging/severe wind gusts should be the main threat as this convection spreads eastward through the rest of the afternoon and evening. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed as robust convection develops over the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 First box over NC/VA posted - ours should be coming shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Activity running from Calverton, VA up to Manassas is growing nicely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Activity running from Calverton, VA up to Manassas is growing nicely. Maybe even rotation on the cell near Nokesville?Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out until 9pm for much of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Looks like we have a good chance to get clocked two days in a row, @H2O, @mattie g and @WeatherShak. My home office is currently taking on that same as-dark-as-9pm ambience it had yesterday afternoon... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Little shower now trying to fire up near Rockville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Looks like we have a good chance to get clocked two days in a row, @H2O, @mattie g and @WeatherShak. My home office is currently taking on that same as-dark-as-9pm ambience it had yesterday afternoon... Yup...could well be. It'd be nuts if I got nearly the same amount of rain as yesterday, but that said it's raining moderately right now, with the meat of that cell is still SW of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Wow...lightning strike less than .25 mile outside the home office window. Big flash over my shoulder and then BOOM! Edit: To say that there's no wind to speak of, but it's now pissing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yup...could well be. It'd be nuts if I got nearly the same amount of rain as yesterday, but that said it's raining moderately right now, with the meat of that cell is still SW of me. Indeed. We just had a 15 minute gully washer...but at least it wasn't horizontal rain like yesterday, and no bad lightning (yet). Snapped this a few minutes ago...was trying to capture the mammatus-like effect at far right for @mappy, but I was about two minutes too late to get the best of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Torrential rain for the 2nd day in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Moderate rain. No wind or thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Indeed. We just had a 15 minute gully washer...but at least it wasn't horizontal rain like yesterday, and no bad lightning (yet). Snapped this a few minutes ago...was trying to capture the mammatus-like effect at far right for @mappy, but I was about two minutes too late to get the best of it. still a great picture! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: And yeah that 16z run of the HRRR is robust. Seems like in this setup there may only be one or two dominant cells but they may be INTENSE ones. Got an image for us mobile folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Got an image for us mobile folks? It’s posted a page back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Nice outflow presentation on the LWX radar from the stuff crossing the Potomac. Outflow out to the north and south. The stuff down near Madison/Orange/and CHO looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 42 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Looks like we have a good chance to get clocked two days in a row, @H2O, @mattie g and @WeatherShak. My home office is currently taking on that same as-dark-as-9pm ambience it had yesterday afternoon... Just some light to moderate showers so far. Worst of it split to my W and E. All good. Not sure I need flooding rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 26 minutes ago, mattie g said: Wow...lightning strike less than .25 mile outside the home office window. Big flash over my shoulder and then BOOM! Edit: To say that there's no wind to speak of, but it's now pissing down. Wild that the main stripe and NW cutoff were in eerily similar positions as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Nice little thundershower here. On the razors edge to the north of the DC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 The Gordonsville area storm down in VA looks like the beefy one of the day...maybe some weak rotation on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Actually getting bright sun right now in Colesville despite that precip being just a HAIR east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Actually getting bright sun right now in Colesville despite that precip being just a HAIR east of me. It's over for Montgomery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Sunny here also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's over for Montgomery I think you're right for severe. But we may see some showers or thundershowers scrape by as the activity down in VA passes by to our south. Look at the litle showers on the northern end of that stuff. Western MoCo probably done for anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Well that was pretty underwhelming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Seems like it’s the usual pattern recently with the NC stuff, and the little bit of northern-ish VA stuff leaving a gap around richmond. I’ll wait a bit longer to be sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 37 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Wild that the main stripe and NW cutoff were in eerily similar positions as yesterday. I noticed that on the meso runs this morning. The storm yesterday caught me flush just as it blew up (almost split me, but nope) and we ended up on the highest end of the precip totals, while today we just got striped and will likely end up with highest totals again, especially if one of these cells to the SW grows a bit and hits us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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