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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1999.html

Watch Likely 

MD 1999 graphic

 DISCUSSION...An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes/OH
   Valley will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon. Modest
   ascent preceding this feature and low-level convergence along a
   surface cold front will likely foster robust convective initiation
   within the next 1-2 hours (by around 3 PM EDT) across parts of
   western/central NC into the coastal Mid-Atlantic. Strong daytime
   heating has already warmed surface temperatures into the upper 80s
   and 90s across this region. A rather moist airmass, with
   precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2+ inches and surface dewpoints
   generally in the 70s, should help offset poor mid-level lapse rates
   to some extent. Around 1500-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE has already
   developed given the ample diurnal heating that has occurred.

   While weak west-southwesterly low-level winds exist, they do
   strengthen with height to around 45-60 kt through mid levels.
   Related 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will act to organize updrafts,
   with a mix of bowing clusters and supercells possible. Isolated
   severe hail may occur with the more discrete convection that
   initially develops. A tendency for upscale growth into multiple
   clusters appears likely given the linear forcing of the front and
   mainly boundary-parallel flow aloft. Scattered damaging/severe wind
   gusts should be the main threat as this convection spreads eastward
   through the rest of the afternoon and evening. One or more Severe
   Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed as robust convection
   develops over the next couple of hours.
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19 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Looks like we have a good chance to get clocked two days in a row, @H2O, @mattie g and @WeatherShak. My home office is currently taking on that same as-dark-as-9pm ambience it had yesterday afternoon...  :yikes:

Yup...could well be. It'd be nuts if I got nearly the same amount of rain as yesterday, but that said it's raining moderately right now, with the meat of that cell is still SW of me.

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9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup...could well be. It'd be nuts if I got nearly the same amount of rain as yesterday, but that said it's raining moderately right now, with the meat of that cell is still SW of me.

Indeed. We just had a 15 minute gully washer...but at least it wasn't horizontal rain like yesterday, and no bad lightning (yet). Snapped this a few minutes ago...was trying to capture the mammatus-like effect at far right for @mappy, but I was about two minutes too late to get the best of it.

image.thumb.jpeg.751ea1d26fa998b911cadc668ae0f4d5.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Indeed. We just had a 15 minute gully washer...but at least it wasn't horizontal rain like yesterday, and no bad lightning (yet). Snapped this a few minutes ago...was trying to capture the mammatus-like effect at far right for @mappy, but I was about two minutes too late to get the best of it.

image.thumb.jpeg.751ea1d26fa998b911cadc668ae0f4d5.jpeg

still a great picture! 

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42 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Looks like we have a good chance to get clocked two days in a row, @H2O, @mattie g and @WeatherShak. My home office is currently taking on that same as-dark-as-9pm ambience it had yesterday afternoon...  :yikes:

Just some light to moderate showers so far.  Worst of it split to my W and E.  All good.  Not sure I need flooding rains.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's over for Montgomery

I think you're right for severe. But we may see some showers or thundershowers scrape by as the activity down in VA passes by to our south. Look at the litle showers on the northern end of that stuff. Western MoCo probably done for anything though. 

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37 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Wild that the main stripe and NW cutoff were in eerily similar positions as yesterday.  

I noticed that on the meso runs this morning. The storm yesterday caught me flush just as it blew up (almost split me, but nope) and we ended up on the highest end of the precip totals, while today we just got striped and will likely end up with highest totals again, especially if one of these cells to the SW grows a bit and hits us again.

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