GaWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: I know its not much and cold air is marginal at best but watching next week. Per the new 12Z EPS for the SE US, the 8th-9th has some precip but only very limited cold air and thus practically no wintry precip. Then the 11th has much more significant precip along with a low that then tracks offshore the SE for many members. Whereas that's often favorable for SE wintry precip in mid January, it is still not cold enough in most areas except the NC mountains and possibly parts of N NC into VA. As of now, this looks like a minor deal at most but should be watched especially since there's an outside chance that it trends colder and the more N areas might have a decent shot at something. But then we come to 1/13-15, which is a totally different story. This period is the highest threat level for SE wintry of the run by a good margin. Like the 11th, the run has many members with a low that either tracks offshore from the NE GOM or inland or forms offshore the SE US and there is a strong signal for significant precip over the SE. Unlike the 11th, this period has ample cold air to potentially work with depending on the low's track. Thus, several members bring snow to the SE, especially NE GA, SC (heaviest upstate and E), and NC (heaviest E) along with VA. This run has by a good margin the highest threat yet for 1/13-15 for the SE overall. There's nothing boring about this run for the SE. ----------- Edit fwiw since this is the very unreliable GFS this far out and cold air is still limited: 18Z GFS has the Jan 11th low move NE from the E GOM and then wind up offshore strongly and pretty far south giving much of the E Carolinas several inches of snow 1/11-12. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Regarding the potential 1/13-15 SE wintry threat, the consensus has the MJO then at a moderate level mainly in phase 8 but possibly still in 7 during part of it. The GEFS has a weak +PNA (though the EPS' PNA may be up to moderate), a moderate -AO (~-1.5), and a moderate +NAO (~+0.6). So, moderate phase 7 to mainly phase 8 MJO, weak to moderate +PNA, moderate -AO, and moderate +NAO. For those fretting about the +NAO, a good number of major SE snowstorms have occurred with a +NAO per my research. I may post these later if I were to get the chance and if this threat were to grow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 Both models have played around with various outcomes for the 11-18th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 18z GFS looks downright interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I've got more to say about a -NAO not even being close to being required for major SE snow chances. I brought this up due to the moderate +NAO (~+0.6) forecasted during 1/13-15, which could become a threat period for a SE winter storm per the EPS. Here is the NAO for the 23 Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP storms that I found since 1950. (I'm calling neutral NAO to be from +0.25 to -0.25):-1/19/1955: -NAO- 12/11/1958: neutral NAO- 3/2-3/1960: neutral NAO- 3/9/1960: neutral NAO- 2/26/1963: neutral NAO- 1/25-7/1966: -NAO- 2/9/1967: +NAO (+0.5)(9.1")- 3/1/1969: -NAO- 1/7-8/1973: -NAO- 2/18-9/1979: neutral NAO- 3/1-2/1980: +NAO (+0.4)(11.1")- 1/13-14/1982: neutral NAO- 3/24/1983: neutral NAO- 2/6/1984: +NAO (+1.1)(6.9")- 1/7-8/1988: +NAO (+0.5)(7.3")- 2/17-8/1989: +NAO (+1.7 )(6.2")- 1/24-5/2000: -NAO- 1/2-3/2002: -NAO- 2/26-7/2004: -NAO- 12/25-6/2010: -NAO- 2/24-6/2015: +NAO (+1.0)(6.5") - 1/17-8/2018: +NAO (+1.2)(6.1") - 12/9-10/2018: +NAO (+0.9)(8.9")Tally:-NAO: 8Neutral NAO: 7+NAO: 8 Note that RDU had 5 big snows with an NAO much more positive than the +0.6 that is being predicted for 1/13-15! Honorable mention since Raleigh didn't get heavy snow from it but many others did: 3/12-3/1993 Storm of the Century: +NAOConclusion: results like this on a pretty nice sized sample tell me that any correlation of -NAO with heavy SE US SN/IP is likely low, if any. NAO daily data: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv RDU data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS looks downright interesting Can we have a weenie roast at your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Both the 0Z Euro and CMC have wintry precip in portions of the W Carolinas and NE GA late on 1/13 as a result of the system highlighted on the 12Z EPS. This system, no matter how it ends up evolving, has the makings of quite an energetic one in the upper levels. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Roughly 16 out of 50 EPS members (1/4 00Z) have at least something for RDU around the 1/15 time period. This has increased since yesterday's runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The coastal low ten days out on the 12z GFS run today is the best hope for SE snow I've seen in a few weeks. All the traditional ingredients are in place. Obviously, the problem is it's ten days out and likely to change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: The coastal low ten days out on the 12z GFS run today is the best hope for SE snow I've seen in a few weeks. All the traditional ingredients are in place. Obviously, the problem is it's ten days out and likely to change. Agreed. This was also on the 0Z CMC and 0Z Euro as well as recent EPS runs as noted earlier. In addition, the 12Z CMC has wintry precip in the SE 1/13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I'm not in love with the more Miller Bish look the GFS has going on, but this still looks like it could be a threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: I'm not in love with the more Miller Bish look the GFS has going on, but this still looks like it could be a threat Yeah storm crashing into the west coast there isn’t optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Odd solution from the euro but it gives much of NC snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12z EURO has the storm as wellSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It's far out there but it definitely has that "classic" look we are looking for. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Probably will begin seeing a scattering of clown maps the next few days... I'm glad the Euro is showing this even if it ain't 100% accurate. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Trigger Warning: http://twitter.com/SethMonteith150/status/1610716840405209089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 40 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Trigger Warning: http://twitter.com/SethMonteith150/status/1610716840405209089 That pic is bigfoot blurry 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I'm biting. Signal is their for wintry precipitation. 1/13 is usually when the Piedmont gets it's chance. Will keep the weenies warm on the flat top 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The 12Z EPS, consistently with the 12Z Euro, has the strongest signal yet for a SE winter storm on 1/13-14. The 12Z Euro has a closed upper low that is associated with this over MO early on 1/13 that strengthens and moves SE/ESE to the SE and hits max strength just offshore the SE US early on 1/14. At that time, the center is a whopping 25 dm below normal at 500 mb. So, plentiful cold air from above gets into this. In addition, strong CAD from a large SE Canadian high gets involved and imparts low level cold air. On the 12Z EPS, the winter storm signal is mainly for VA, NC, NE GA, and the N half of SC. It is important to point out that though this is the strongest signal from the EPS for 1/13-14, it isn't the first run with a significant signal for then as this is the 3rd in a row and 5th of the last 6 runs going back to the 0Z 1/2 run. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Average historical daily odds of measurable snow within the following date ranges in Greensboro: Jan 1-7 4.3% Jan 8-14 5.3% Jan 15-21 6.1% Jan 22-28 5.9% J 29 - F4 4.9% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 54 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: I'm biting. Signal is their for wintry precipitation. 1/13 is usually when the Piedmont gets it's chance. Will keep the weenies warm on the flat top I’m not biting yet but keep one warm for me. As I will bite it it’s still there over next two runs. I can come get a weenie after I cliff dive at last moment 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I'm all in!! Going to be in the mtns in a cabin for wedding anniversary! Let's get snowed in! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Average historical daily odds of measurable snow within the following date ranges in Greensboro: Jan 1-7 4.3% Jan 8-14 5.3% Jan 15-21 6.1% Jan 22-28 5.9% J 29 - F4 4.9% Put another way, the odds of going completely snowless in the second half of January is about 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 FWIW, Canadian keeps the storm on the 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 hours ago, JoshM said: FWIW, Canadian keeps the storm on the 0z run @Coldrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Gotta watch the High placement/strength. Could be a snow to ice type storm, if it doesn't cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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