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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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43 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85...

The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15.

Temperatures too warm for central NC.  EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip.  Triad and west stays around freezing.

I accept it.  Rooting for the west crew.

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1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The UK has the shortwave at day 6 in west central New Mexico,very close to the Canadian position maybe even a tick southwest of it.

 However, this run doesn't have the 970 mb low off SE Canada that the 12Z had and is thus not nearly as cold ahead of the storm. The 12Z looked like it was heading toward a huge mess in the SE after the end. This run isn't as threatening for especially more southern areas.

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 So far (hour 132), the 0Z Euro doesn't look as threatening as the 12Z, mainly because there's no surface low on the way to being the very strong low that the 12Z had that helped lock in cold in the SE ahead of the SE storm, itself. Also, H5 isn't so far as strong for the storm, itself. 
 

 Going further out, the SE Canadian high is weaker and there's no precursor storm to help bring down cold air into the SE. The H5 for the potential SE storm is weaker, too.

 Edit: not surprisingly, a big fail on this run

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 0Z EPS has similar change to the 0Z Euro with much weaker or no precursor surface low to help bring down and lock cold air in the SE. Thus, I expect this run won't be as wintry as the last one. Let's see....

Edit: confirmed to have less wintry precipitation

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12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Will probably see more wobbles with the runs for late next week... it does flatten everyone's tires to go from some consistency of snow/ice to nothing at all...

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I don't think we're really that much further from a positive outcome than we were yesterday. What we're seeing though, is how many things have to go right, with little or no below average temps to pull from anywhere in North America. A perfect low track, perfect placement & timing of the 50/50, sufficiently strong Canadian HP, etc. A perfect setup up top still means living on a razors edge WRT track.

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