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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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 No operational model, even the best, has all that much credibility for details past about day 7 imho. There's too much uncertainty after then. I, like many of you, enjoy looking at them and sometimes even post about them for the record or entertainment (like for winter storms)(though I may post about them in banter if way out in lala land). But I feel that about all they're semi-reliable for past day 7 is general pattern ideas. Example: the big cold of late December. After day 7, I usually concentrate more on ensemble runs, especially the means. Even during days 5-7 the best operationals can be off quite a bit, especially when there's a complex pattern.

 Regarding the ensembles, even the EPS has had a number of false runs regarding a general pattern change to colder this month as several of us have stated. The EPS, despite being the best, is quite fallible. That's why I often compare it and other ensemble means to prior runs as that may give me an early hint of bigger changes in future runs.

 I will say that after many runs showing a stronger and stronger PNA, the 0Z EPS actually backed off some on the +PNA intensity vs 12Z yesterday, despite still being stronger than the GEFS. Let's see what it shows at 12Z.

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9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 No operational model, even the best, has all that much credibility for details past about day 7 imho. There's too much uncertainty after then. I, like many of you, enjoy looking at them and sometimes even post about them for the record or entertainment (like for winter storms)(though I may post about them in banter if way out in lala land). But I feel that about all they're semi-reliable for past day 7 is general pattern ideas. Example: the big cold of late December. After day 7, I usually concentrate more on ensemble runs, especially the means. Even during days 5-7 the best operationals can be off quite a bit, especially when there's a complex pattern.

 Regarding the ensembles, even the EPS has had a number of false runs regarding a general pattern change to colder this month as several of us have stated. The EPS, despite being the best, is quite fallible. That's why I often compare it and other ensemble means to prior runs as that may give me an early hint of bigger changes in future runs.

 I will say that after many runs showing a stronger and stronger PNA, the 0Z EPS actually backed off some on the +PNA intensity vs 12Z yesterday, despite still being stronger than the GEFS. Let's see what it shows at 12Z.

Of course the eps is fallible just like the GEFS and the cmc ensembles but just going by the verification scores recently the gfs has been behind by a significant bit. More so than in the past.  But as you have greatly detailed a lot of uncertainty still remains with this possible change in the pattern or no change at all. 

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58 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I was just making a generalization about the pattern and likelihood of a Nina year producing Feb cold. We need those same ensembles to start showing a change in the medium range because they’ve been showing a long range “change” for about 2 and a half weeks.

Agree here.  They do seem to can-kick on many occasions but precise timing at the long range is not a banner component for them

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Longest -AO streaks back to 1950:

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days

-------------------

Current 11/23/2022-1/11/2023+: 50 days+

 

 0Z 1/11/23 GEFS 14 day fcast is even more emphatic about keeping the streak throughout, which would make 64+ days if verified, would mean at least a tie for third longest, and would then be only 5 days from tieing second place.

 At RDU, the current 50 day -AO streak  has averaged ~2 AN. We'll see where this ends up whenever the streak finally ends. If it were to end up AN or even NN, it would be notably mild vs the other four -AO streaks that were noted:

 

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 5 BN

2/2-4/11/1958: 6 BN

2/5-4/9/2013: 4 BN

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 6 BN

vs

11/23/2022-1/11/2023: 2 AN but streak ongoing

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12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m waiting for the EPS to come out but until we get within a week and something is still showing a pattern change I’m putting my money on anything that delays or denies it. 

 So far (through 288), the 12Z EPS has gone back stronger to the strength of yesterday's 12Z western ridge, but it is centered a bit further west/just offshore the west coast vs at the west coast 24 hours ago. It is centered ~200-300 miles west of where it was on yesterday's 12Z as of 288. But it still shows a clearcut pattern change to much colder vs earlier days in much of the US, including the SE. In the SE, it is colder than the 0Z and at least about as cold as yesterday's 12Z.

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I've got no damn clue what yall are talking about with the gefs. Does it look horrible? Not to me. It doesn't look great but it's not far off. It kind of dumps the cold in the Midwest then bleeds east but Canada is cold so that's good. The eps to me is rock steady as she goes. Still looks much better than the crap we are currently in. 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I've got no damn clue what yall are talking about with the gefs. Does it look horrible? Not to me. It doesn't look great but it's not far off. It kind of dumps the cold in the Midwest then bleeds east but Canada is cold so that's good. The eps to me is rock steady as she goes. Still looks much better than the crap we are currently in. 

Midwest source of cold just doesn’t cut it east of the mountains especially with height anomalies remaining high in the SER area. I may have made it sound worse than it is but it’s not a good look and not what I’d call a definitive change to cold in the SE. That look could throw in some CAD events though so it’s not the current pattern. I guess everyone just wants a return to winter after this hellish start and that’s not a sure fire look and usually means cutters 

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 The 12Z EPS suggests during the +PNA for the first Canadian high to come down 1/21-2 to start the cooling pattern change. Then a stronger, colder high comes down ~1/24 followed quite possibly by a third one ~1/26. It is between the 1/24 and 1/26 highs that I'd look for perhaps the best shot at wintry mischief in parts of the SE as by then it could easily be cold enough if any surface low takes a favorable track for one's area. Per climo the chance would be best imo if any cold enough Canadian high center moves to the Ohio River area and then eastward, which would still allow for cold enough in the SE, possibly including CAD, but also enough Gulf moisture. (See Alan's maps). This is as opposed to a high center plunging into the Deep South, which would normally be colder but a mainly dry outcome outside of NW flow in the mountains.

 

Edit for entertainment only: it appears that one member drops a good bit of snow over N GA to NC 1/23-4.

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39 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One interesting note about the pattern change around the 22nd- that’s the same day last year NC picked up a widespread snowstorm after a very bleak winter to that point. 

The big snowstorm for the western carolinas was on the 16th 

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The 12Z EPS still had some members showing snow for RDU around 24/25.  

We don't need extended cold around here.  We just need the cold and moisture to sync up at the right time.  

Most of the recent snows in central NC have barely stuck to the roads (if at all) and were melted off the grass by the next day or two.  

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 RDU received significant snowfall the last two late January's (2.7", 1.6"). Based on the ensembles as they look now, it appears that they'll have a halfway decent shot for a third wintry late January in a row. Anyone want to make a prediction on whether or not they'll get 1"+ of SN/IP and/or 0.10"+ of ZR between January 21st and 31st?

 This impending pattern change for late January looks fun to me and that's even with me having very little chance for wintry precip due to poor climo for that this far south. I just enjoy cold patterns. Many times in late January we don't have this kind of change to look forward to. So, I feel fortunate. In the meantime, the last week or so of wx here has been quite enjoyable for walking. I'm also looking forward to the upcoming cold weekend with highs of only 50-55 and lows of 30-35. The weekend looks to average ~8 BN with very low dewpoints. Great for outdoors!

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