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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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10 hours ago, JoshM said:

almost forgot...

giphy.gif

but it should just say "we're closed just temporarily" because:

- something interesting for especially parts of NC/VA next week can't yet be ruled out, which is normally the case when looking over a week out during the heart of winter with progged very cold air not too far away

- The North Pole is progged on the 12Z GEFS to warm in the stratosphere at 10 mb a whopping ~45 C/81 F within the 5 day period from 1/23 to 1/28, which would be due to a SSW (though maybe not technically a "major" one). With this kind of warming, a change to a multi-week cold dominated pattern is quite possible in the E US starting maybe as early as ~Feb 10th (call it mid-Feb), especially if the MJO is not then outside the COD in phases 4-5 and the +NAO ends.
 

- This is despite the infrequency in having a cold Feb during La Niña. Infrequency doesn't mean it can't get cold. Also, only 18 of the last 34 (53%) La Niña Febs have actually been 2+ warmer than normal (what I consider AN) at KATL. So, that is barely more than a coin flip. The number of torches (5+ AN) is only 9 of those 34 (26%). So, the idea of a mild Feb during La Niña, while higher than the typical chance, is nowhere near a guarantee. Near normal occurred 11 times (32%) and BN 5 times (15%). With this progged late January strong SSW, I'd put the odds of an AN Feb at well under the typical 53% chance and increase the chance of normal or BN to higher than the typical 47%.

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

but it should just say "we're closed just temporarily" because:

- something interesting for especially parts of NC next week can't yet be ruled out, which is normally the case when looking over a week out during the heart of winter with progged very cold air not too far away

- The North Pole is progged on the 12Z GEFS to warm in the stratosphere at 10 mb a whopping ~45 C/81 F within the 5 day period from 1/23 to 1/28, which would be due to a SSW (though maybe not technically a "major" one). With this kind of warming, a change to a multi-week cold dominated pattern is quite possible in the E US starting maybe as early as ~Feb 10th (call it mid-Feb), especially if the MJO is not then outside the COD in phases 4-5 and the +NAO ends.
 

- This is despite the infrequency in having a cold Feb during La Niña. Infrequency doesn't mean it can't get cold. Also, only 18 of the last 34 (53%) La Niña Febs have actually been 2+ warmer than normal (what I consider AN) at KATL. So, that is barely more than a coin flip. The number of torches (5+ AN) is only 9 of those 34 (26%). So, the idea of a mild Feb during La Niña, while higher than the typical chance, is nowhere near a guarantee. Near normal occurred 11 times (32%) and BN 5 times (15%). With this progged late January strong SSW, I'd put the odds of an AN Feb at well under the typical 53% chance and increase the chance of normal or BN.

Yeah, I'm definitely watching that CAD with the 23rd event. Hard to score with how warm the whole continent has been and will be. But we shall see.

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1. The 12Z EPS through 240 maintained the warmer trends of the last few days after having been a few degrees BN on several runs last week for the same days and is still mainly AN in the 6-10. That has how the EPS has been several times this month making it hard to trust it when it is significantly colder than the GEFS.

2. The 12Z EPS, similar to its 0Z, has cooled significantly from AN to several degrees BN in the 11-15. Whereas I'd love that to be real and thus hope it is for a change, I know better than to trust this. See #1 just above this for a key reason not to. It has been too cold (especially) in the 11-15 many times this winter to date and thus has tended to warm up as it gets closer (like a cold mirage). Another reason is that the GEFS, which has done better because it has been warmer much of the time this month, is warmer here too at near normal though it has cooled some.

3. There looks to be very cold air not too far NW of the SE US and also a southeast ridge lurking close by to the SE. So, there is higher than normal bust potential to go either way. There could easily be a sharp gradient within the SE.

4. None of the above points have anything to do with the progged SSW for next week. Any possible cooling effects from that on the SE US would likely not be til Feb 10th+.

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Surprisingly there seems to be some consensus growing from the 27th-on as being an active period with a much colder look. EPS and GEFS on the same page… The previous “pattern change” that failed to materialize never featured consensus between those two. This may  be a good sign for the end of the month. We laugh at fantasy storms but the fact we’re getting them on op runs is a very good sign as well that there is some potential during that period. 

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At least 2 events showing up on the GFS 12Z that could turn into opportunities with slight adjustments.  Lots of energy flying around so anything could happen: 1/25-27 and 1/29-1/31.   

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20230117 12 UTC&param=sim_radar_comp&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1&skip_num=1#

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the EURO solution tor the 26th verified and we (central NC) rained with that track and strength of LP, go ahead and hang it up for the winter 

The storm will make its own cold air, system will track further south, HP will trend stronger, SE ridge will finally break down. I like extra mustard on my weenie. 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the EURO solution tor the 26th verified and we (central NC) rained with that track and strength of LP, go ahead and hang it up for the winter 

Don't get your hopes up. Winters here have been slowly moving towards mass pain. Just ignore models that show snow and hug ones that don't. 

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 Models are as emphatic as ever about very strong stratospheric warming/SSW late this month into early Feb. Many Arctic areas are projected at 10 mb to warm 40-50+ C (72-90+ F) within just 5-10 days! The trend at 10 mb has been slowly toward a further N Alaskan ridge and further S SPV. These trends are increasing the chance that any SSW will be "major", which means that the mean wind direction north of 60N shifts from W to E. The chance for a major SSW is higher during the 2nd half of winter. Since 1958, there have been 13 winters with one in the late Jan to early Feb timeframe or 20% of them:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1981, 1987, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018

 How many of these 13 had significant multi week long cold periods to follow starting 10+ days afterward in the SE? Using ATL:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971 (La Niña with cold first half of Feb), 1973, 1987, 2001 (La Niña with cold March), 2006 (La Niña with cold Feb), 2009 (La Niña with cold 2nd half of Feb to early March), 2010, 2018 (La Niña with cold March)

- So, 11 of the 13 had significant cold to follow in Feb and/or March

- So, specifically looking at just the 5 La Niña winters with a late Jan or early Feb major SSW, all 5 later had significant and lengthy cold to follow in Feb and/or March.

 Conclusion: Because of the very strong SSW progged late this month, there's a very good chance for a multi week period in the SE dominated by significant cold in Feb and/or March starting at some point 10+ days after the SSW, which means most likely 2/10 or later.

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Models are as emphatic as ever about very strong stratospheric warming/SSW late this month into early Feb. Many Arctic areas are projected at 10 mb to warm 40-50+ C (72-90+ F) within just 5-10 days! The trend at 10 mb has been slowly toward a further N Alaskan ridge and further S SPV. These trends are increasing the chance that any SSW will be "major", which means that the mean wind direction north of 60N shifts from W to E. The chance for a major SSW is higher during the 2nd half of winter. Since 1958, there have been 13 winters with one in the late Jan to early Feb timeframe or 20% of them:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1981, 1987, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018

 How many of these 13 had significant multi week long cold periods to follow starting 10+ days afterward in the SE? Using ATL:

1958, 1960, 1963, 1971 (La Niña with cold first half of Feb), 1973, 1987, 2001 (La Niña with cold March), 2006 (La Niña with cold Feb), 2009 (La Niña with cold 2nd half of Feb to early March), 2010, 2018 (La Niña with cold March)

- So, 11 of the 13 had significant cold to follow in Feb and/or March

- So, specifically looking at just the 5 La Niña winters with a late Jan or early Feb major SSW, all 5 later had significant and lengthy cold to follow in Feb and/or March.

 Conclusion: Because of the very strong SSW progged late this month, there's a very good chance for a multi week period in the SE dominated by significant cold in Feb and/or March starting at some point 10+ days after the SSW, which means most likely 2/10 or later.

Thanks for putting this together! Hey, this mid-atlanticer likes those analogs :lol: Will share in home forum, lol

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5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

IMO overnight runs confirmed the window is from the 26th-2nd. After that we likely warm.

 If the 12Z GFS/Euro/CMC and 0Z Euro have the right idea (it is still out in semi-fantasyland), this past below normal cold weekend will have a chance to be exceeded by an even colder weekend/the second coldest Arctic plunge of the winter to date the weekend after the upcoming one! The consensus of the models has easily the 2nd coldest Arctic airmass of the winter to date coming out of S Canada and agreement is rather strong for that far out. Also, the 12Z GEFS mean is the coldest run so far for the SE that weekend. I didn't even consider a very cold last weekend of January that much of a possibility until the last couple of days and figured this past weekend would likely be the coldest one of the month.

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