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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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32 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I'd be interested to see how far the storm at the end could push the boundary. For whatever it's worth it’s this 3rd through the 7th or so period that the ensembles are at least trying to signal some overunning fun. I know it's day 10 plus so what's the use, but I guess we've got to talk about something lol.

 

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms 

Yep. I saw that. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. 

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9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If you were hoping for a Euro run with implications for cold to dominate the SE in early Feb, the just out 12Z isn't the run for you as the SE ridge holds the cold back. Prior runs looked better, especially yesterday's 12Z. And this isn't a surprise based on the frequent overzealousness of models bringing cold to the SE this winter. But then again, there's the usual high uncertainties with operational runs out past a week or so. So, take with a grain as it is still early.

 The 0Z Euro is the opposite of the prior run as noted above and instead the freezer door is open late deep down into the SE! But as always, take with a huge grain that far out and we'll see what the next few runs show as well as the EPS.

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow.

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_34.thumb.png.f91e006122bf43910d8e22f68349d664.png

Still, no support from the ensembles. We have, after all seen the wild swings of the OP (as is to be expected at this range.) It seems like a plausible enough outcome nonetheless.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_34.png

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow.

gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_34.thumb.png.f91e006122bf43910d8e22f68349d664.png

Yep.  Will be interesting to see how Euro handles this.  CMC is further south and thus more snow.  

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Euro- wet frontal boundary, with back end flurry potential, followed by deep cold and suppression (snow down to FL panhandle). Basically the low runs out ahead of the HP, never allowing a wave to run along the boundary

GFS- a HP further east, and a stronger wave, mean the two duke it out. Ultimately the LP wins, cutting north, but not before a long duration frozen mess takes place, due to a stalled boundary.

 

Canadian - similar to the Euro, but perhaps a step towards the GFS

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22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Before the threat of frozen precip can arrive, there is an increasing threat of flooding, or at least a long duration stretch of soggy weather

pwat_anom-mean.conus.png

With the way it’s been and storms continuing to cut we end up with a lot of rain but nowhere near the modeled amounts just a lot of 0.5” - 1” rains frequently enough to keep everything soaked but no flooding, thankfully. Mountains obviously are seeing more but these giant modeled amounts east of there you can usually cut 3/4 out to get the actual rainfall totals with systems that end up west of the mountains 

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46 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Geez... don't look at the Euro control for the same time period we are talking about.... lol to bad it ain't hardly ever righrbd77399802ecc5d82129c3b8746b1d05.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Who knows.  I think all solutions are still on the table.  European has cold chasing rain so that’s probably the most likely scenario but we could get a surprise. 

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31 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

When was the last time we had 4 Ninas in a row?

As far as I know 4 years is unprecedented in modern times. I know the forecast right now is for a rapid flip to neutral by late spring and El niño by the end of the summer/early fall. Just feels tough to have much faith in predictions the way things have been going.

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain 

Good thing it's Ensembles disagree with the operational. 

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