Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dano62
    Newest Member
    Dano62
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Below is a graph showing that the 10 mb winds at 60N dropped sharply from 50 m/s on 1/23 to 12 m/s on 1/28. It needed to drop to <0 to be counted as a "major" SSW. Instead, I expect it to called a "minor" SSW. The models did a good job as they had it drop to this vicinity for a good number of days prior to 1/23.
 Does it going 75% of the way mean it will still likely have significant cooling effects on the SE starting mid to late Feb and lasting at least a couple of weeks thanks largely to a new long period of -AO? I don't have a good feel for it as the analyses were based on major SSWs. And the model consensus is forecasting some restrengthening of the SPV along with cooling back a good bit in early Feb. 

 

4BE0E361-A8CF-4689-9680-1303D229102C.thumb.png.53a00dc531f3a339f83f3cafdf8944b1.png

So that hail mary fell incomplete.  Soon its gonna be March 1993 or bust

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

So that hail mary fell incomplete.  Soon its gonna be March 1993 or bust

 I had been hoping that the Euro idea of the MJO going into the circle (which typically wouldn't be a warm signal) before reaching phases 4/5 (which is what GEFS had) would occur in Feb. But it looks like GEFS idea, which favors warmth at midmonth, will win out as the Euro has been inching to the GEFS. Also, the progged +NAO/AO aren't favorable for cold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks like next Sunday may have some legs. Cmc showed a widespread winter storm, mostly ICE, now 18z GFS showing not a major storm but some snow/ice for the piedmont.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Not happening . All rain on CMC and Gfs at 00z. It’s time for some hot dogs on the grill.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Chuck said:

 

winter is coming.gif

 That's what the latest CFS thinks lol. After the extremely cold NE shot this weekend, it has a break for 12 days before 3 more extreme airmasses plunge down between 2/17 and 2/28 in various parts of the US. 

 We know any cold extended portion of a CFS run is pretty much pure entertainment. But this does remind me that we have very little idea about how the last half of Feb will be. After all, Feb 15th is still 2 days beyond the end of the EPS, which itself is very unreliable. And keep in mind what I said about knuckleballs.

 As we get into mid Feb, that's when we may have an MJO move back to inside the COD and away from the MC. Also, if we are to get a SSW induced -AO/SE cooling, it could easily start then based on analogs.

 Regarding the very strongest Arctic plunges deep into the SE in Feb, most have actually occurred during either La Niña or cold neutral despite the relative rarity of cold Niña Febs. A good number of these were during 2/8-2/17 although they have occurred as late as 3/7! A good portion of these followed a mild period. The Arctic's coldest normal is not til 2/25!

 Regarding major snow/sleet in the SE, climo is still relatively favorable through the first few days of March. In RDU, the peak day is actually March 2nd! ATL has had several major winter storms in the first few days of March. Even way down here where big winter storms are very rare, two were between 2/25 and 3/4 and there have also been several non-major wintry events within that period!

 Just some food for thought.
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 That's what the latest CFS thinks lol. After the extremely cold NE shot this weekend, it has a break for 12 days before 3 more extreme airmasses plunge down between 2/17 and 2/28 in various parts of the US. 

 We know any cold extended portion of a CFS run is pretty much pure entertainment. But this does remind me that we have very little idea about how the last half of Feb will be. After all, Feb 15th is still 2 days beyond the end of the EPS, which itself is very unreliable. And keep in mind what I said about knuckleballs.

 As we get into mid Feb, that's when we may have an MJO move back to inside the COD and away from the MC. Also, if we are to get a SSW induced -AO/SE cooling, it could easily start then based on analogs.

 Regarding the very strongest Arctic plunges deep into the SE in Feb, most have actually occurred during either La Niña or cold neutral despite the relative rarity of cold Niña Febs. A good number of these were during 2/8-2/17 although they have occurred as late as 3/7!

 Regarding major snow/sleet in the SE, climo is still relatively favorable through the first few days of March. In RDU, the peak day is  March 2nd! ATL has had several major winter storms in the first few days of March. Even way down here where big winter storms are very rare, two were between 2/25 and 3/4 and there have also been several non-major wintry events within that period!

 Just some food for thought.
 

 

1670278989_whatcouldgowrong.gif.ec2b7d78d0fc3a8e2d25090da6a237e5.gif

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Difference is: it still gets dark at 8 o’clock, Sun is strong, and “cold” then is like 64. 

Maybe where you live.  A cold April here is highs in the 30s with blowing snow that might amount to a couple inches.  A cold may= 40s and rain. I'll happily take 60 and sunny

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Maybe where you live.  A cold April here is highs in the 30s with blowing snow that might amount to a couple inches.  A cold may= 40s and rain. I'll happily take 60 and sunny

I agree for April. 60s and sunny or 40s and rain any time past the middle pot March 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 The 12Z Euro has a high on Saturday (2/4) not getting above 32 in Raleigh. The coldest of the weekend is low 20s on it. This is looking to easily be the 2nd coldest airmass of the winter to date there and in much of NC. In addition for ice fans, there are hints on the models (as per the GFS post above) for some ZR in NC, northern SC, and NE GA (most likely not heavy enough for outages but more of a travel hazard if it occurs) on Sunday though I don't see any on the Euro. 
 Regardless, this weekend is looking to be cold in the SE with record cold in the NE.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Looking more closely at the ZR on the 12Z GFS for late Saturday night til ~noon on Sunday, it has mainly <0.25" from the NW half of SC to central NC. However, it does have a smaller area within this of 0.25-0.45" between Charlotte and the Triad. It gets as cold as upper 20s in Charlotte with the ZR.

 The GFS also has snow (850s below 0C) to the NW of this area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 To show how much the ICON has been trending colder into the SE resulting from the Arctic high bringing record breaking cold into the NE this weekend, here are the SLPs at Columbia over the runs of the last few days as of 10AM on Saturday 2/4:

1/28 12Z: 1019 mb

1/29 0Z: 1033 mb

1/29 12Z: 1033 mb

1/30 0Z: 1033 mb

1/30 12Z: 1037 mb

1/30 18Z: 1040 mb!! That's 30.71"!

 The 18Z ICON has a freeze all of the way down here that morning after being down only into the low 40s on the 0Z run.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 To show how much the ICON has been trending colder from the progged record breaking cold Arctic high this weekend, here are the SLPs at Columbia over the runs of the last few days as of 10AM on Saturday 2/4:

1/28 12Z: 1019 mb

1/29 0Z: 1033 mb

1/29 12Z: 1033 mb

1/30 0Z: 1033 mb

1/30 12Z: 1037 mb

1/30 18Z: 1040 mb!! That's 30.71"!

 The 18Z ICON has a freeze all of the way down here that morning after being down only into the low 40s on the 0Z run.

 

It's sad we have to get excited about slightly below normal temperatures in early February. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

It'd be a real shame to finally get a real workable solution for a big portion of this forum only for the trough to end up too far east so the storm gets going too late. 

 The 12Z UKMET has a bigger deal than other models in parts of N GA and NW SC Sunday morning. At Athens, GA, qpf is ~1/2" and temps are near 32. Thus on the border of 1/2" of ZR, which would be close to a scattered power outage situation. Keep in mind that wedged cold air is often underdone and thus colder as well as a larger area of sub 32 wouldn't be a surprise. Clayton, GA is 31-32 and gets ~.15, which may be sleet based on 850's near +3 C:6F026BB1-AB12-4FBF-A59E-C681C11830ED.thumb.png.7976d897a23254d1325026f8f0a3c7ed.png94333D0E-C616-40BC-A344-ED0D417877E6.thumb.png.4ef658658d214f2db3b18b4bace394dc.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...