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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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NWS RAH is showing some interest in this time period as well. 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...
Temperatures will
depend on the exact location of a frontal zone meandering over the
SE US, with additional CAD conditions very possible. Finally, rain
should be the primary precip type through at least Thursday.
Thereafter, the uncertain arrival of Canadian air into the area will
likely hold off until Friday/Saturday, which would yield increasing
chances for wintry precip as additional moisture overspreads the
area from the SW. Stay tuned.
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16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That Euro solution would be an epic sleet storm for many. Too much of a thread the needle solution at range to take with much more than a grain of salt. If we pull something out of this pattern that’s the only way it’ll happen though. Very, very short window 

Yep! Precip type map show zr, but here's the sounding. This kinda of setup is extremely rare.

ecmwf_full_2023012600_228_35.8--78.6.png

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Gfs and CMC both have the storm, GFS. A little to warm. CMC a major ICE Storm taken verbatim from 12z

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

As Dawg mentioned we need the HP to come in faster or the system to slow down on the GFS.  Still a lot of possibilities on the table.  The model inconsistency is comical at this point, especially the GFS.  The CMC and Euro have been a little more consistent.  

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The storm cutting on the CMC is a very strange evolution. The energy hangs up in the Texas/Louisiana area for a couple of days before being pulled almost due north by a vort digging from the Pac NW. It seems unlikely to me that energy stays put like that. This looks like a strung out slider orientation to me with multiple waves riding the boundary. That’s just how I interpret that. Euro and CMC frequently tend to hold energy back longer than reality too so i really don’t think the CMC solution will pan out in that manner. But it is relatively consistent, much more so than the GFS 

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When will we ever see another Miller A storm?!? High is weaker and a little quicker but the Miller B with a stronger parent low in East Tennessee is a real killer. Clearly a storm signal, but we're gonna need to thread the needle. Timing/strength of multiple features is critical.

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12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established.  The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. 

So true. Threading the needle doesn’t work very often in my neck of the woods. This will probably be a mid Atlantic storm but we got nothing else to watch. Sad 

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established.  The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. 

I understand the sentiment but there's been plenty of crap winters with no real established cold that we've won the timing lottery in. Let's be honest, a very large portion of our winter events over time have probably come from transient cold. I'm certainly not confident in seeing winter precip, but I'm definitely not gonna thrown in the towel til the climatolagy window for my area closes.

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Starting at 144, one can see how different the 12Z JMA is vs all of the other 12Z runs with the southern lobe of the TPV further south resulting in colder air moving much further south into the S Plains. At 168 you can see how much colder it is in the SE with troughing to the Gulf coast along with an Arctic high bringing much colder air in vs the SE ridge hanging on all of the others. This is deep cold as opposed to shallow cold from CAD. I'm assuming the outlier JMA is  going to end up wrong based on it largely being an inferior model, but thought it was worth documenting this in case it were to score an upset win.

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25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Starting at 144, one can see how different the 12Z JMA is vs all of the other 12Z runs with the southern lobe of the TPV further south resulting in colder air moving much further south into the S Plains. At 168 you can see how much colder it is in the SE with troughing to the Gulf coast along with an Arctic high bringing much colder air in vs the SE ridge hanging on all of the others. This is deep cold as opposed to shallow cold from CAD. I'm assuming the outlier JMA is  going to end up wrong based on it largely being an inferior model, but thought it was worth documenting this in case it were to score an upset win.

If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost…

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46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost…

Absolutely, desperate times, indeed! But at least I'm not throwing the NAVGEM or CFS. And the big difference starts before day 7.  ;)

 At 168, the lowly regarded JMA has the 850 0C line 300-400 miles S of the others. Also, where the others have the 0C line then, the JMA has -10 to -15 C.

 

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