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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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The 12Z EPS is the 7th of the last 8 runs with a significant wintry precip signal for a good portion of the SE for 1/13-5. This signal goes all of the way back to the 0Z 1/2 run. Only the 0Z 1/3 run lacked this.

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Eric Webb basically saying beware of the Euro Snowmaps today, and the mountains are the biggest threat right now... he's trying to be a buzzkill since he don't live here no more I guess... of course no one actually believes the 12z EURO will happen verbatim but a heavy signal is there.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Eric Webb basically saying beware of the Euro Snowmaps today, and the mountains are the biggest threat right now... he's trying to be a buzzkill since he don't live here no more I guess... of course no one actually believes the 12z EURO will happen verbatim but a heavy signal is there.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I mean snowfalls of 8" or more are extremely rare in the piedmont. Usually, if we get storm broadly like the Euro, the piedmont gets a few inches of snow followed by a flip to rain, while DC gets pumeled. 

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12 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro and EPS look pretty good at day 7- 8,even the GFS is similar with the low placement it's just too warm for frozen at the moment.

MJO looks very favorable in about a week,(p8,p1)AO is still negative,and the NAO ticking to neutral.Time to track.

 The 12Z GFS' surface low needs to adjust further south to produce widespread SE wintry precip as it has the low going across N GA. With the GFS trending stronger and further south with the H5 low, the 12Z Euro holding onto to the Gulf coast to S GA to offshore track, and the 168 12Z UKMET setup suggesting something similar had it gone out further, I think it is just a matter of time before the inferior GFS does something similar.

 Indeed, the AO and MJO for 1/13-15 are looking favorable. The PNA drops to neutral then, but I don't see that as a negative.
 
 The +NAO, indeed, is dropping from an earlier strong. However, the GEFS has it still moderate (~+0.9) 1/13-15. But as the research I posted two days ago showed, folks hoping for a big SE snow shouldn't fret about it. Why? Because in looking at big RDU snows since 1950, there was no correlation to NAO with only ~1/3 during a -NAO, ~1/3 during neutral, and ~1/3 during +NAO. Moreover, the 2/6/1984, 2/17-8/1989, 2/24-6/2015, 1/17-8/2018, and 12/9-10/2018 big RDU snows all had an NAO of +0.9 or higher (range +0.9 to +1.7). RDU hasn't had a big snow during a -NAO since 2010.

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11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z GFS' surface low needs to adjust further south to produce widespread SE wintry precip as it has the low going across N GA. With the GFS trending stronger and further south with the H5 low, the 12Z Euro holding onto to the Gulf coast to S GA to offshore track, and the 168 12Z UKMET setup suggesting something similar had it gone out further, I think it is just a matter of time before the inferior GFS does something similar.

 Indeed, the AO and MJO for 1/13-15 are looking favorable. The PNA drops to neutral then, but I don't see that as a negative.
 
 The +NAO, indeed, is dropping from an earlier strong. However, the GEFS has it still moderate (~+0.9) 1/13-15. But as the research I posted two days ago showed, folks hoping for a big SE snow shouldn't fret about it. Why? Because in looking at big RDU snows since 1950, there was no correlation to NAO with only ~1/3 during a -NAO, ~1/3 during neutral, and ~1/3 during +NAO. Moreover, the 2/6/1984, 2/17-8/1989, 2/24-6/2015, 1/17-8/2018, and 12/9-10/2018 big RDU snows all had an NAO of +0.9 or higher (range +0.9 to +1.7). RDU hasn't had a big snow during a -NAO since 2010.

Agree.

The fact that the GFS has some sort of low in the ballpark as the Euro/EPS is encouraging.Adjustments/tweaks can be made.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

The 12Z EPS is a "west of 85" storm.  Anything east of 85 is a trace to half inch at best.

Yep. If I lived in Northwest NC I would be watching . I live in South Central NC (eastern peidmont) where we will take our cold rain and like it . Good luck my fellow weenies. 

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 The chance for any one D, J, or F at RDU to be snowy (say, 3"+ of SN/IP) is between 1/4 and 1/5 per records that started in 1887. As is intuitive, the correlation of snowy to how cold is the month is strong.

 With the forecast for RDU to be ~11 AN MTD as of 1/11 and with the models looking warm again after the midmonth winter storm threat, this month is almost certainly going to end up AN. So, that got me wondering how rare and cool it would be IF RDU were to get 3"+ from this storm with it a mild month:

-~37% of BN months had 3"+ SN/IP

-~21% of NN months had 3"+ SN/IP

-only ~4% of AN months had 3"+SN/IP

  
 I was surprised at how low is the AN month %. So, should we assume that RDU has only a 4% chance of getting 3"+ this month? If there were currently no threat showing, I'd say that would be a good guideline. But based on the threat the models are showing just 8-10 days out, the chance is clearly much higher. This may very well be one of those very rare mild snowy/sleety months! They're kind of due for one fwiw.

 I found 5 AN winter 3"+ SN/IP months at RDU and 3 of them were during La Niña fwiw. Going from warmest down:

 

1. Jan of 1933 (cold neutral ENSO):

 10" on 1/13 and a whopping +9 F for month, 6th warmest on record; warm through 1/12 and then the big snow; after a cold 1/13-4, warm returned 1/16-26

 What's interesting about this analog is how similar it appears to be to 1/2023!


2. Dec of 1971 (moderate La Niña similar to now):

3.7" on 12/3-4 and +7 for month; warm 12/7-17 including high of 77 on 12/16

 

 3. Jan of 1911 (weak La Niña and a  3rd year Niña like we're in now):

3.3" on 1/17 and +5 for month after warm 1/11-15 including highs in 70s on 1/12-5

 

4. Jan of 1930 (weak El Niño):

3.6" (3.5" 1/29-30) and +3 for month

 

5. Feb of 1984 (weakening from moderate La Niña):

6.9" on 2/6 and +2 for month with a warm 2/11-20

-----------------------

 In summary, RDU had 3"+ during a mild winter month in 1911, 1930, 1933, 1971, and 1984. So, these have occurred ~once every 27 years on average. It has been 39 years. Will 2023 be the next one? Stay tuned!

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Nope, it's just the GFS being clueless. I will not even look at it until we are 72 hours out (been burned too many times). Not saying that the Euro solution will play out, just not buying into the GFS. Remember it was the Euro / UK solution that led the way over the GFS on our Dec non-event and that combo looks pretty good right now.... stay tuned.

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8 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yeah, was just looking at that. Looks like the model is starting to come around. 

 To clarify when I say wintry, much of that pivotal accumulation appears to actually be ZR for GA/SC/NC with 850s well above 0C in many cases. This is a major icestorm signature vs the EPS having much more snow in the mix due to a much further south mean surface low track.

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The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85...

The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15.

Temperatures too warm for central NC.  EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip.  Triad and west stays around freezing.

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