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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


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52 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Man with that look on the 12z GFS, that would normally be an awesome look but it's to warm... rain...

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 Regarding the 12Z GFS (which indeed is trending more impressively at H5), a much further south surface low track similar to the last two extended Euro runs would be most helpful to make it much colder at low levels and allow for widespread and significant SE wintry precip prospects.
 Whereas those two Euro runs had the low go offshore E of Brunswick, GA, on January 13th, and thus produce wintry precip in parts of the SE, the 12Z GFS has it way north of that north of Augusta. Let's see whether or not the GFS sfc low track adjusts southward over the next couple of days.

 The 12Z CMC is by far the warmest of the last 4 runs due to the surface low being 700 miles further north (IL to OH to VA) vs the prior three runs. Those prior three CMC runs had the surface low go offshore GA and thus produce wintry precip in part of the SE. As a result, the new (12Z) CMC is much warmer with all rain in the SE.

 So, the key for the best chance for a big deal wintry precip wise in the SE is for the surface low to track much further south than the 12Z CMC/GFS with off of Brunswick being near ideal.


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 It is too bad that the UKMET doesn't go out past 168. The 12Z 168 has both the surface and H5 lows well to the south, near Dallas, TX, producing heavy QPF east/SE of there. Then there's the strong (1040 mb) Canadian high already inducing CAD way down into the favored SE region on the backside of very strong (970 mb) low winding up just off SE Canada. At that time, the 0C 850 line is dropping south of Columbia. There's little doubt in my mind that had this run gone to 192 that it would have shown a big wintry mess over a good portion of the SE on 1/13.

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1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

glad its the euro and not the gfs.... if its here Monday i will be all in 


Agreed.  Thinking back to the pre-Christmas threat, when GFS and others were showing action in the SE, but the Euro never caved, and proved to be right.  So thinking/hoping its gonna lead the way this time..

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