Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[ma blizzard]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not at all comfortable yet for your 'hood on just going borderline advisory snow. I've been noticing the RAP cooling all day today....Euro continues to be an issue obviously, but we'll keep tracking. RAP has you with this sounding at 15z tomorrow with already 6+ fallen

 

18z RAP coldest yet .. even flips most of ORH county tmrw morning 14z- 15z

[CoastalWx]

Always found the RAP to be warm and amped in the beginning only to settle down as we get closer to the event.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the 18z Nam will tell the tale of how this shakes out 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the 18z Nam will tell the tale of how this shakes out 

How about actual obs at this point, since precip breaks out overnight.

[weatherwiz]

Can also switch over to mesoanalysis. Two things to watch for a big thump tonight

1) Strong llvl WAA

 

2) Strong frontogenesis right on the leading edge:

 

 

 

[Angus]

So you think it's snowing in the early AM if I want to go to WaWa and take a few laps before the lifts open?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Angus said:

So you think it's snowing in the early AM if I want to go to WaWa and take a few laps before the lifts open?

AC/DC?

[rgwp96]

Started a snow by me in nj . Tenp was 36 slowly dropping at 34.3 now 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Started a snow by me in nj . Tenp was 36 slowly dropping at 34.3 now 

What was your wetbulb?

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Angus said:

So you think it's snowing in the early AM if I want to go to WaWa and take a few laps before the lifts open?

I think light snow there

[dryslot]

Finally got my WSW, Nice range too, 5-12"........., I still have 6-10" for here so should be good.

[weatherwiz]

In Litchfield COunty from the 18z NAM. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM looks normal early on, but its going to be super amped by late Friday....850 low at 18z tomorrow is over NYC while it was S of LI at 12z.

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was your wetbulb?

He has a sling psychrometer?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nammy NW

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Started a snow by me in nj . Tenp was 36 slowly dropping at 34.3 now 

Keep us posted....your obs are actually kind of useful for how guidance was handling the low levels.

[CoastalWx]

NAM will look like the euro lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

N Catskills Into dacks ...crush city 

[rgwp96]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What was your wetbulb?

32.2. I’m now down to 33.4 and sticking to all surfaces 

[rgwp96]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keep us posted....your obs are actually kind of useful for how guidance was handling the low levels.

Down to 33.4 and all surfaces getting covered 

[weathafella]

So-is this the time when the euro goes back to slapping the gfs around?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, weathafella said:

So-is this the time when the euro goes back to slapping the gfs around?

As we know gfs is usually too far SE on coastals

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

32.2. I’m now down to 33.4 and sticking to all surfaces 

Was it progged to snow there? You’re in Butler right?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

So-is this the time when the euro goes back to slapping the gfs around?

Like @wx2fishtold me, it will get this right, but blow on the next coastal lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Was it progged to snow there?

NAM had snow

[ORH_wxman]

3k continues to be colder than the 12k....actually gives decent snows again for parts of CT late tonight.

[JRESTI]

I'm glad I found this forum. I've been reading most the week trying to figure out how much snow I'm going to get in Londonderry, VT. Last year was a major disappointment - lots of rain, even when temps were at or slightly below freezing. I'm anxious I'm getting set up for disappointment this time as well. I'm at 1,200 ft and all indications are I should be getting walloped, but temps seem warm even for my location. Tell me I'm wrong?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Booked Glen house next to Wildcat @ 1600’ . 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

3k continues to be colder than the 12k....actually gives decent snows again for parts of CT late tonight.

I wish we knew wish one does better in these setups 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, JRESTI said:

I'm glad I found this forum. I've been reading most the week trying to figure out how much snow I'm going to get in Londonderry, VT. Last year was a major disappointment - lots of rain, even when temps were at or slightly below freezing. I'm anxious I'm getting set up for disappointment this time as well. I'm at 1,200 ft and all indications are I should be getting walloped, but temps seem warm even for my location. Tell me I'm wrong?

Enjoy having power now