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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine.
This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. 
Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain.
Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling.  But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. 
On to Wednesday...

Agreed. It’s so frustrating and we are not the only ones frustrated. I’ve had multiple people ask me when it was going to snow. That they missed it. It’s just not normal for this area of the world to be without it for this long.
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WGAL update:

#WINTERWEATHER UPDATE: Here's what to expect for our Wednesday! This could be the first plowable #snow for much of the Valley! The farther north you live, the heavier snow you'll see. 2-6" is possible! Stay tuned for our latest! #pawx #weather wgal.com/weather WGAL News 8 Storm Team WGAL News Channel 8 Susquehanna Valley, Pa.
 

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I passed out when I saw the full 18z GFS snow total map through 384 hours….wow!

How about passing out to this!!!

sfct-imp.us_ne.png

Those arctic temperatures could only be achieved with a deep snowpack and calm winds.  I've personally never seen these negative numbers ever!  It's interesting that 2 days ago on the 21st was the 29th anniversary of the all-time record low temperature at MDT of -22F.  Those temps which last occurred back in January of 1994 was during the incredible snowy and icy winter of '93-'94.  Speaking of icy, it was during January when my friend who lived up just a few miles from High Point NJ reported freezing rain with a temperature of 4 degrees F above zero!  Unreal.  I'm going to save this map for posterity even though I know there's almost no chance of this happening.  We'll see.  The ground hog will definitely not see his shadow because he'll be too cold to venture outside of his hole.

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The key to bigger amounts in the southern half of PA and specifically the LSV continues to be the placement of the initial band of WAA snows that breaks out and how expansive it is. 

18z Euro gets it into northern half of PA initially

image.thumb.png.af70a88f6e908b4865a2524ec1e3e8c5.png

 

Making for a shorter period of snow/frozen up front for the southern counties/LSV, but still good rates especially south central when the primary area of precip associated with the best forcing/southerly flow arrives.

Hr 46 and 47

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The heavy snowfall rates precedes the changeover/dry slot and moves through C-PA from SW to NE during the late morning-early afternoon hours.

image.thumb.png.1ffd109d01a9e70a2a12b8cbcb6d6f43.png

10:1 Snow totals from the Euro 18z run. The Kuchera is lower around the edges of the snowfall swath, especially in SW PA and JST but the LSV is also about an inch or so higher using 10:1. 

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16 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not sure what that means great melt most models have 3-4” for the area

Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning.

I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.

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