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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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20 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

CTP has headlines up, I was wondering how much of the central they were going to consider for watches. 4-6” is the snow amount forecast for the whole watch area. It has been looking like 6” may end up being the ceiling for the most part… reflective on the new probability products CTP has where best  6+ probs (30-40%) have shifted north to center on the UNV to IPT part of true central. 

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Interesting how the LSV WWA is for just 1-3 for all of the LSV. The Watch area in the immediate layer of counties to to north in Juniata & Snyder jumps to 4 to 6 inches.

CTP basically has a DT type of map! 
I understand the 1 to 3 for York & Lancaster, but I think the next tier of counties in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry & Lebanon should be at least 2 to 4.

I’m sure they will refine this 100 times today. Maybe this is CTP’s DT style “first call” ?

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53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Interesting how the LSV WWA is for just 1-3 for all of the LSV. The Watch area in the immediate layer of counties to to north in Juniata & Snyder jumps to 4 to 6 inches.

CTP basically has a DT type of map! 
I understand the 1 to 3 for York & Lancaster, but I think the next tier of counties in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry & Lebanon should be at least 2 to 4.

I’m sure they will refine this 100 times today. Maybe this is CTP’s DT style “first call” ?

Wasn't DT a meteorologist for NWS at one time?

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I could be mistaken, but I think he has always been in the private sector of meteorology with paying clients.

I think I read somewhere he was employed by the NWS at one time many years ago. I could be wrong though. 

Q: You run the weather forecasting service WXRisk, and we’ve heard from people who swear by your forecasts, people who sing your praises. So what’s your story? How did you get here? And what’s your secret to predicting the future?

Tolleris: Yeah, well, I’ve been here since the 1994, 1995. I originally came down to join the National Weather Service in Wakefield and it turned out that I’m not a big government type of person. https://www.chesterfieldobserver.com/articles/five-minutes-with-dave-tolleris/

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This is CTP’s forecast for tomorrow for Harrisburg:

Wednesday
Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is CTP’s forecast for tomorrow for Harrisburg:

Wednesday
Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

This is full of confidence….lol…they are really covering all of their bases…

And the 2 to 4 inches of snow does not match their WWA of 1 to 3 for Harrisburg….

Despite their inconsistency, I tend to agree with this grid forecast of 2 to 4 for the Harrisburg area.

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Welp, been pouring over the guidance here this morning and......not good.  The concern I brought up yesterday about the initial slug of moisture missing us to the north seems to be coming to fruition.  Mesos are a mess, with drylslot and temp issues abound.  I'm selling this stock for Lancaster County.  I'll stick with my original over/under of an inch at this point but would throw down some serious coin on the under.  Good luck to those across the Midstate in line for some stickage.  As always, I hope to be wrong. 

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Scanning across the 12z Meso suite and yikes......the fat leading is singing for the LSV.  If they are correct, and it sure seems they will be, then this will go down as a pretty big miss for the globals.  More disappointment in what is fast becoming a disappointing winter.  Here's to a pattern shift shaking things up in the weeks to come, but not holding my breath on anything at this point.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I sort of did - my original thought was 1" or so at most. Having said that, I did waver and started believing some of those maps posted. 

As Bubbler said - expectations were too high given the setup. 

I know, we get sucked into it.  I did too, but deep down I expected it to be another head fake....

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