Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Scanning across the 12z Meso suite and yikes......the fat leading is singing for the LSV.  If they are correct, and it sure seems they will be, then this will go down as a pretty big miss for the globals.  More disappointment in what is fast becoming a disappointing winter.  Here's to a pattern shift shaking things up in the weeks to come, but not holding my breath on anything at this point.

Sure seems like something needs to change in order to provide realistic opportunities for areas SE of the ridges. 

10 minutes ago, Newman said:

I think the 0.0 streak unfortunately continues at Millersville tomorrow. Yesterday's snow just wasn't enough here to catch a measurable designation.  For record, the lowest seasonal snowfall ever recorded at MU was 4.0" back 1949-1950

Agreed - at this point I doubt MDT records 1". 

[canderson]

Had planned to move my day in the office to Thursday but looks like no reason to do that now. Winter 2022/23 continues to rock! 

[Bubbler86]

32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sure seems like something needs to change in order to provide realistic opportunities for areas SE of the ridges. 

Agreed - at this point I doubt MDT records 1". 

I think our chances for tomorrow are all in the hands of Brett Maher (not sure if he has a Met degree or not) 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think our chances for tomorrow are all in the hands of Brett Maher (not sure if he has a Met degree or not) 

Better for us that it's in his hands and not through his foot. 

[canderson]

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think our chances for tomorrow are all in the hands of Brett Maher (not sure if he has a Met degree or not) 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

That's actually funny...

[Itstrainingtime]

Elliott has spoken:

A #WinterWeatherAdvisory has been issued for the Lower Susquehanna Valley from 4 AM to 4 PM Wednesday. Snow should overspread the region from west-to-east between 8-11 AM and then changeover to sleet and eventually plain rain from south-to-north..

I don’t expect any accumulations south of the MD Line (precip starts as rain or sleet there). Between the MD Line and PA Turnpike (east of Route 15), a coating to 1” is most likely with 1-3” expected north of the Turnpike and west of Route 15..

Up to 4” is possible in the higher elevations of Perry and northern Dauphin Counties. Precip should change over to plain rain by midday south of Route 30 and by 2-3 PM in northern parts of the Valley. With temps near or above freezing, main roads should generally be wet..

.. but secondary roads could turn slushy and even snow-packed, esp north of the Turnpike. Allow extra travel time tomorrow, drive within the speed limit, and increase following distance. I expect @millersvilleu to finally receive measurable snow but no more than 1 inch..

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott has spoken:

A #WinterWeatherAdvisory has been issued for the Lower Susquehanna Valley from 4 AM to 4 PM Wednesday. Snow should overspread the region from west-to-east between 8-11 AM and then changeover to sleet and eventually plain rain from south-to-north..

I don’t expect any accumulations south of the MD Line (precip starts as rain or sleet there). Between the MD Line and PA Turnpike (east of Route 15), a coating to 1” is most likely with 1-3” expected north of the Turnpike and west of Route 15..

Up to 4” is possible in the higher elevations of Perry and northern Dauphin Counties. Precip should change over to plain rain by midday south of Route 30 and by 2-3 PM in northern parts of the Valley. With temps near or above freezing, main roads should generally be wet..

.. but secondary roads could turn slushy and even snow-packed, esp north of the Turnpike. Allow extra travel time tomorrow, drive within the speed limit, and increase following distance. I expect @millersvilleu to finally receive measurable snow but no more than 1 inch..

The thing about this is that most models do not any precip in the LSV (or very little) until mid-day.   GFS does a bit earlier but the meso's are mostly 10AM and after. 

[paweather]

Holding solid:

[GrandmasterB]

Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast.

The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The thing about this is that most models do not any precip in the LSV (or very little) until mid-day.   GFS does a bit earlier but the meso's are mostly 10AM and after. 

Meso's vs Globals again - I'm hedging on the Meso's. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast.

The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.

Well stated - question is...will that wall of precip come in while we still have thermals? If the precip is delayed a couple of hours, we lose our window. 

[GrandmasterB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well stated - question is...will that wall of precip come in while we still have thermals? If the precip is delayed a couple of hours, we lose our window. 

Oh, for sure! Very valid concern. There is a straight forward case to make that the morning marches on and temps rise before the precip even gets here. I’ll offer that it’s a 30% chance that it’s plain rain at 33 by the time it gets here and I don’t even see a flake.

[anotherman]

19 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Elliot’s forecast looks reasonable to me and closely matches NWS here. I also think the concerns everyone laid out this morning are valid and warranted. However, I also think this set-up has a better “positive bust” potential than any of our previous chances so far here in the southeast.

The temps and especially DP leading in aren’t bad. GFS just went colder at 12Z and NAM has DP’s in the mid 20’s tomorrow morning. This should basically be a wall of precip with little virga so if we can squeak out an extra hour of snow we could get to 2” or maybe a bit more. Again, forecast wise I think up to an inch is a prudent forecast. But I can see a path to exceeding that if it breaks right which I really haven’t seen in past chances.

When I first read this I thought you were making a joke and comparing our futility to that of the southeast i.e. S. Carolina, Georgia, etc. 

[paweather]

Looks like first week in Feb is going to rock.  

[Bubbler86]

39 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Oh, for sure! Very valid concern. There is a straight forward case to make that the morning marches on and temps rise before the precip even gets here. I’ll offer that it’s a 30% chance that it’s plain rain at 33 by the time it gets here and I don’t even see a flake.

Nam 3 and 12 and HRRR shows basically no snow in Lanco. 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think our chances for tomorrow are all in the hands of Brett Maher (not sure if he has a Met degree or not) 

If that's the case our snow total would be zero.

[pawatch]

I guess I’m being ungrateful...but Its getting old when we have some snow usually 3-4” then we finish up with an hour or two of rain to make paste. No fun to cleanup at all.

My forecast is for 3-7” Which is giving their self lots of leave-way.

 

Rant done 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I guess I’m being ungrateful...but Its getting old when we have some snow usually 3-4” then we finish up with an hour or two of rain to make paste. No fun to cleanup at all.

My forecast is for 3-7” Which is giving their self lots of leave-way.

 

Rant done 

 

Rants are totally understandable. I was on the edge yesterday myself. 

This isn't just to/for you, but to everyone really - it's interesting to me how personal perception can change day by day. Yesterday, I was surly, negative, and almost ready to be confrontational, really. This winter had me at my breaking point. I was genuinely upset over the weather.

Today? New day. Weather hasn't changed much, if anything the outlook has gotten even more bleak. But I'm okay with that today. It is what it is...nothing I can do to change it. My mindset today is almost to make fun of the situation and just have fun with it.

Nothing has changed today in my professional or personal life, either. Simply a new day and I woke up with a different perspective. 

Can anyone else relate to what I'm saying? 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rants are totally understandable. I was on the edge yesterday myself. 

This isn't just to/for you, but to everyone really - it's interesting to me how personal perception can change day by day. Yesterday, I was surly, negative, and almost ready to be confrontational, really. This winter had me at my breaking point. I was genuinely upset over the weather.

Today? New day. Weather hasn't changed much, if anything the outlook has gotten even more bleak. But I'm okay with that today. It is what it is...nothing I can do to change it. My mindset today is almost to make fun of the situation and just have fun with it.

Nothing has changed today in my professional or personal life, either. Simply a new day and I woke up with a different perspective. 

Can anyone else relate to what I'm saying? 

I'm more of an optimistic person UNTIL mid March and no or very little snow has fallen. This could be the 2 time in 3 year with not having to turn my snow blower on.  But I'm in this to win it! Hope tomorrow is a good start. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Looks like CTP took another step down with projected totals:

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rants are totally understandable. I was on the edge yesterday myself. 

This isn't just to/for you, but to everyone really - it's interesting to me how personal perception can change day by day. Yesterday, I was surly, negative, and almost ready to be confrontational, really. This winter had me at my breaking point. I was genuinely upset over the weather.

Today? New day. Weather hasn't changed much, if anything the outlook has gotten even more bleak. But I'm okay with that today. It is what it is...nothing I can do to change it. My mindset today is almost to make fun of the situation and just have fun with it.

Nothing has changed today in my professional or personal life, either. Simply a new day and I woke up with a different perspective. 

Can anyone else relate to what I'm saying? 

I can....in my case the first period is a big letdown from buying into digital snow but then it does move into using humor to sort of help pass over the situation. 

[Streak]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don’t expect any accumulations south of the MD Line (precip starts as rain or sleet there). Between the MD Line and PA Turnpike (east of Route 15), a coating to 1” is most likely with 1-3” expected north of the Turnpike and west of Route 15..

About what I’m expecting. I’ve been luckier than most; I’ve woken up 2 or 3 times to a nice dusting of snow (coating to 1 inch or so), and have had a few opportunities to enjoy some flurries here. Probably still unsatisfying to most winter-weather fans, but not quite the complete shutout some of you have experienced. 

This is exactly 7 years ago today, from the Jan 2016 storm. I don’t think I captured it as well as I’d hoped but the left of the photo is the wall of snow after shoveling the driveway and the top of the snow was a few inches above his head. 

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

I'm more of an optimistic person UNTIL mid March and no or very little snow has fallen. This could be the 2 time in 3 year with not having to turn my snow blower on.  But I'm in this to win it! Hope tomorrow is a good start. 

Lowes has to be suffering on snowblower and snow type material sales.  Townships are probably overjoyed and hoping their budget has a surplus when it's all done.   One might say everyone already has their winter supplies but living in Florida disproves that fact whenever hurricanes come calling. 

[anthonyweather]

Lowes has to be suffering on snowblower and snow type material sales.  Townships are probably overjoyed and hoping their budget has a surplus when it's all done.   One might say everyone already has their winter supplies but living in Florida disproves that fact whenever hurricanes come calling. 

Screw the big box stores. But agree with your points, another big one - landscape companies that rely on snow for a big part of income. I have quite a few customers that rely on hundreds of thousands of dollars and a few that are into the millions each winter.

You then hear “you can’t bank on winter weather”, agree and disagree. We live in the northeast.

Those guys are really suffering


.

[Atomixwx]

And for the ski resorts, there's only so many single-rail roller coasters and zip lines you can make to try to have a prayer at recouping some of the losses in the summer.

We go too many more winters with a snow deficit and you're gonna start seeing state representatives introducing legislation to allow ski resorts to become brothels and places where drunks can throw knives and shit.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Screw the big box stores. But agree with your points, another big one - landscape companies that rely on snow for a big part of income. I have quite a few customers that rely on hundreds of thousands of dollars and a few that are into the millions each winter.

You then hear “you can’t bank on winter weather”, agree and disagree. We live in the northeast.

Those guys are really suffering


.

 

Just now, Atomixwx said:

And for the ski resorts, there's only so many single-rail roller coasters and zip lines you can make to try to have a prayer at recouping some of the losses in the summer.

We go too many more winters with a snow deficit and you're gonna start seeing state representatives introducing legislation to allow ski resorts to become brothels and places where drunks can throw knives and shit.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Yea, both of your points are spot on (hopefully Atomix's last point does not leave spots.)  So many that will suffer if it does not turn around soon...similar to what happens if too many of a type of animal dies in an area...other animals either suffer or expand to proportions that are not good. Butterfly effect.  If anyone wants to help Liberty, the beer and food are good at Mckees and Eagle/Owl within the Liberty resort.  Ski pass not needed :-) 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Looks like first week in Feb is going to rock.  

I finally got a chance to look at the MA LR.  Synopsis...early Feb will be rockin' but if it is not the end of Feb will be rockin'.   However, all previous rockin' periods are null and void. 

[Bubbler86]

Soon Euro time...here is the Euro from 36 hours ago to compare (for tomorrow)

 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I finally got a chance to look at the MA LR.  Synopsis...early Feb will be rockin' but if it is not the end of Feb will be rockin'.   However, all previous rockin' periods are null and void. 

I saw that we might have a couple of very short windows (3-5 days) to score something - that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.