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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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13 minutes ago, Ruin said:

is the storm drier then modeled ? 

Not drier, it's still really early and it always takes time to saturate the near-surface column. That initial extension of precip was always going to have to fight dry air to start (if it went through the area). Later on, no dry air at all. In fact, the reason we're seeing rain is basically because of the stronger system down south diabatically heating the downstream atmosphere to pump the ridge more (i.e. raising heights and leading to rain).

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13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Interesting to note ABC-27 has not waivered on their forecast since Monday, they are staying firm

 

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lol they always low ball snow numbers. I remember back during juno when they started naming storms we all rdy had like 16 inchs on the gerund they were still calling 3-6. I would snow blow my area and before I went in id have like 3 inchs again. the thing that made me laugh was when they said these will be total numbers 12-16 we all rdy had 2 feet and other local weather were calling up to 36 inchs cause we got the training effect going on. dunno if you watch abc 27 a lot but they do tend to side on the less snow rule all the time.

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47 minutes ago, Ruin said:

is the storm drier then modeled ? 

I could be wrong, but I believe it was my post about the P shield looking dry and early that prompted your question.  I didn't take enough interest in this one to look at any of the foretasted evaluations. I just didn't expect to see returns in the area so early. The storm has a great feed of moisture but as advertised that huge warm dry slot on the back side is heading right for us, not to mention all the things Newman mentioned.

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

lol they always low ball snow numbers. I remember back during juno when they started naming storms we all rdy had like 16 inchs on the gerund they were still calling 3-6. I would snow blow my area and before I went in id have like 3 inchs again. the thing that made me laugh was when they said these will be total numbers 12-16 we all rdy had 2 feet and other local weather were calling up to 36 inchs cause we got the training effect going on. dunno if you watch abc 27 a lot but they do tend to side on the less snow rule all the time.

Yes they try to be conservative on their estimates, That's what's surprising. Nws dropped their amounts a little but 27 stayed the course.

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Despite a good bit of virga so far, I think upstream radars (I’ve been watching PIT and Charleston, WV) are looking okay. The stuff that is likely reaching the ground is crossing into SW PA now and that is a couple hours sooner than what the HRRR has been showing as that has been suggesting a mid-late morning start in C-PA. There are some mPing snow reports north of Pittsburgh as well, so PIT radar is indicating the atmosphere is moistening up.  I think the HRRR might be under modeling the precip shield a bit. 

The short range/high res models have been really inconsistent among themselves and still are with the snowfall swath. I’ve personally tossed the NAM and RGEM and favor the HRRR as the short range model for the snow swath positioning. With the globals I still think the GFS is too generous in the southern tier but the 6z Euro looks pretty close to what I’m thinking and also jives okay with the HRRR swath (Euro a little bit more solid). I also think CTP has a solid snow forecast out right now. The reality with this is that the ceiling has lowered with regards to high end amounts, thus their decision to go all advisories. 

image.thumb.png.3480942129f3e82b564e9dfa56c27959.png

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Despite a good bit of virga so far, I think upstream radars (I’ve been watching PIT and Charleston, WV) are looking okay. The stuff that is likely reaching the ground is crossing into SW PA now and that is a couple hours sooner than what the HRRR has been showing as that has been suggesting a mid-late morning start in C-PA. There are some mPing snow reports north of Pittsburgh as well, so PIT radar is indicating the atmosphere is moistening up.  I think the HRRR might be under modeling the precip shield a bit. 

The short range/high res models have been really inconsistent among themselves and still are with the snowfall swath. I’ve personally tossed the NAM and RGEM and favor the HRRR as the short range model for the snow swath positioning. With the globals I still think the GFS is too generous in the southern tier but the 6z Euro looks pretty close to what I’m thinking and also jives okay with the HRRR swath (Euro a little bit more solid). I also think CTP has a solid snow forecast out right now. The reality with this is that the ceiling has lowered with regards to high end amounts, thus their decision to go all advisories. 

image.thumb.png.3480942129f3e82b564e9dfa56c27959.png

The swath of heavy precip in WV could put down a couple of inches of snow in a hurry when it arrives.

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36 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yes they try to be conservative on their estimates, That's what's surprising. Nws dropped their amounts a little but 27 stayed the course.

im still seeing 1-3 inchs ? when did they drop them? its said 1-3 from the start with maybe a glaze of ice 

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Not much to add other than I was really hoping early on that this was going to be a good snow for you guys. It sucks that it doesn't look as good as it once did.

Side note, I go to Flagstaff today, so I get to see the mountains of snow up in the mountains. At least it's not falling from the sky and travel should be decent. 

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Nearly all the short-term guidance is paltry for the southern LSV and frankly, for much of the state in general.  Given arrival time and temps, I see a very low impact event today and doubt there are many issues at all on the roadways.  Just hoping for a period of some intense white rain to lighten the mood here in Harrisburg.  Congrats to those up north, although even there I doubt we see much in the way of impressive totals.  

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Nearly all the short-term guidance is paltry for the southern LSV and frankly, for much of the state in general.  Given arrival time and temps, I see a very low impact event today and doubt there are many issues at all on the roadways.  Just hoping for a period of some intense white rain to lighten the mood here in Harrisburg.  Congrats to those up north, although even there I doubt we see much in the way of impressive totals.  

The wind is the main show here right now. We have had gusts near 40.  If we do get some heavier snow with the wind, that will be something to see. 

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34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No, most forecasts that I’ve seen have said mid morning start time.

Hmm maybe im wrong but I always thought mid morning middle of the morning 6-7-8ish latest 9 and on I would of thought is late morning 

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Not drier, it's still really early and it always takes time to saturate the near-surface column. That initial extension of precip was always going to have to fight dry air to start (if it went through the area). Later on, no dry air at all. In fact, the reason we're seeing rain is basically because of the stronger system down south diabatically heating the downstream atmosphere to pump the ridge more (i.e. raising heights and leading to rain).

some also need reminded that WAA often comes in earlier than modeled, even if its getting eaten up by dry dp's.  

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