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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Just finished and posted this in the old thread before I saw the winter one was made, haha. 

Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10.

So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise.

What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well

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5 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Mind if I lurk here the next few weeks? I am a resident of the southeast board but will be in Altoona from the 11th-21st so this weather gal wants to keep my wife informed

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

Welcome!  You might need to speak up for Altoona from time to time as many members are from the Harrisburg/Lower Susquehanna Valley area. 

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

42 mph wind gust over night, steady 15mph wind.

Ended up with 0.26” of rain yesterday, Far cry from the 1-2” They was calling for.

Snow flurries today...So good start Blizz!

Sandstorm your welcome!

Thanks Mag.

I checked my station and it showed 12.5 for a peak gust, but from what I've heard, it must have been higher because tree crews are out working on some downed branches.

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19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The overnight models looked to be keying on a potential Winter Storm around the 10th. Lots of time & many days to go, but the potential should be there with cold air available and the blocking in Greenland established.

A70CEEF3-AF29-40CA-837F-30AFE81485BA.png

807D121C-0199-4D1B-BC9C-7E6506101F0A.png

864FA13C-0E3E-44D3-B34C-4524CA6C9FF5.png

Yes, keep us updated, as I have to put the snowplow on my four wheeler to plow our lane. 

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3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Might start as snow but it is a cutter today:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what.  Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days.

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what.  Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days.

Yeah over 200 hours out. I definitely think a better look or hope so. :D

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah over 200 hours out. I definitely think a better look or hope so. :D

Like him or not, one of the greats of LR forecasting (yes Bastardi) often reminded us that a model run "must fit the pattern".  That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades and makes a ton of sense.

That said....this run doesnt really fit. ^_^ 

NAO/AO solidly neg, w/ PNA still slightly neg (around that timestamp), would not show such ridging out west, and would be notably more supressed in the east, and likely wouldnt show a cutter. 

Not parsing over details yet, cause at 252, the details are fuzzy at best, but thats a 10,000 ft view from my noggin.     

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just a little divergence and why Op runs post 240 should be taken w/ a large grain of salt IMO.  GEPS verbatim "fits the pattern" if tellies are close to correct.  And remember, you gotta get the the 500mb pattern right before worrying about lower levels.  Literally a top down approach (for me anyway).  

gfs_z500a_us_43.png

gem-ens_z500a_us_43.png

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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lanco finished November 3.75 AN for the month. (MU)

Currently, it's sunny and 41 with a bit of a breeze here at work. 

MU always finishes with a significantly higher departure than MDT because they compare against the entire period of record (which I like), whereas NWS just uses the most recent 30-year period.

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