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Central PA Winter 2022/2023

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19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sheesh might be a non event here when it's all said and done. I guess just hope for a bust.

Most guidance has been supportive of at least a couple inches generally from the metro north, which I’d feel okay about. The big question is the south of the metro and how much warm advection precip can actually manage its way up into the rest of SW PA early, like especially prior to and near 12z. It’ll snow anywhere if there’s a more expansive precip shield that gets into PA early enough. 

Even without much of that, the main part of the system with the direct southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico could still yield a start as snow with pretty heavy rates even in further SW PA but obviously time would really be limited there before the column temps get routed and then the dry slot arrives. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:


These close situations always bring out the worst in model site difference.  Tt is never good for mixed so we have pivotal and wb with its normal large differences.




The bottom line is the “south” trend continued on most models this evening.

The GFS has been very consistent for days around the Harrisburg area. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol… here is the 0z Kuchera…. I think @CarlislePaWx will still do quite well if this verified 


Why thank you for thinking of me!  The pivotal map certainly shows the western half of Cumberland with around 2".  WB shows 5" for nearly the entire county!  In any case, with the NAM's suddenly moving the snow line south by 50 miles, I'm back in the game with around 3".  I think 2-4" is probably a good call for me for now.  I'd like to exceed 3.3" which is my largest event so far this season back in December.  As always, if a minimum of 2" falls, I consider that a win since all the grass gets covered around the 2" mark.  BTW, skies still totally clear here with a temp down to 27.3 and a dew point of 24.

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I just came across this from a TV station. I don't know if anybody posted this when it came out in December. It covers highlights and stats for every winter for the last 100 years so you can look up the year you were born. I was born in the fall so I didn't find the year of my birth interesting, but the year after when I was a few months old. I wish the stats were just for PA and not the whole country, but it is is still pretty interesting.



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3:32a: I was checking around and saw that NWS has gotten rid of all Winter Weather Watches in North Central PA and replaced them with Winter Weather Advisories. None of the text forecasts mention it will be heavy wet snow and only NWS text  mentions wind gusts, saying up to 30 when Advisory says 40. 

Lots of people won't realize how bad it will be because they won't know  about wind gusts and heavy wet snow.  It wouldn't be hard for all the weather companies to list wind gusts in their text forecasts. As someone who doesn't drive, let me tell you high wind gusts can be the make the difference between deciding to go out or stay home.

On a lighter note, I have a dental appointment at 2:00, less than a 10 minute drive from where I live in Williamsport. I was going to cancel but didn't since new appointments are going out to July. I can take bus or Uber and the dental office may or may not cancel afternoon appointments. I was hoping to be able to figure out by now if I can probably make it or not, but I still have no idea.

So if you want, you can weigh in on whether I will go or not.


* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Wind gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow-covered roads and reduced visibility will make travel difficult. Gusty winds and heavy wet snow may result in downed trees and power outages. Snow will transition to mixed precipitation during the afternoon and evening.
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