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Central PA Winter 2022/2023

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13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning.

I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm.

I haven’t seen that at all. Sorry maybe your location 

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Just now, canderson said:

If MDT gets more than 2” I’ll be shocked and happy. If it’s less than .5” I won’t be shocked or upset. 

Every model has MDT over 3 inches at this time….

But….I’m happy to see this from you… we always do well when you make a post like this every event of every year!

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9 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’ll take it! 3:4


Gotta remember those tropical tidbits maps include sleet with their totals. Here is the 12k and 3k NAM with 10:1 snowfall

12k NAM


3k NAM


Most of central below I-80 and Sus Valley have some amount of pingers and some ZR. I was going to credit the NAM for seeing the separated/disorganized nature of yesterday’s storm pretty early on in the short range.. and now it pulls this for this system, which I don’t buy the lack of front end snow below I-80 currently. That’d be a huge bust for the middle of PA where CTP has their highest forecasted totals. 

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The good news (for me / Cumberland) is NWS has added "The Snow may be Heavy at Times" to Wednesday.  The bad news is that they took the previous 3-5" of total snow down to 1 - 3".  Wow.  Maybe they got shell-shocked by the 0Z NAM's that basically give me less than 1" for the storm total?  The roller coaster continues...

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53 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP discussion make me think they continue to trim back LSV totals, which now are 1-2” for MDT. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up bit predicting any accumulation on for a decent part of Lancaster/York counties. 

Yep same. I'm still very skeptical we get very much around here.

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CTP has headlines up, I was wondering how much of the central they were going to consider for watches. 4-6” is the snow amount forecast for the whole watch area. It has been looking like 6” may end up being the ceiling for the most part… reflective on the new probability products CTP has where best  6+ probs (30-40%) have shifted north to center on the UNV to IPT part of true central. 


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