Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I grew up in South Jersey, and I recall being excited by storms coming in from the west or northwest that were progged to reform because that usually meant we'd get some snow. ittle did I know way back then that NE would get absolutely clobbered by them or else my enthusiasm might have ben dampened a bit. :lol: 

I have the same recollections. And the more you know, the less enthusiasm there is. Where did you grow up? I'm from Vineland 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

I have the same recollections. And the more you know, the less enthusiasm there is. Where did you grow up? I'm from Vineland 

That’s awesome! I played plenty of baseball and soccer in Vineland. I grew up in Camden/Pennsauken and most of my family is still scattered all across South Jersey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS issue in a nutshell. Look at the pacific wave digging  off the California coast.   GFS is way east of the Euro and every other model.  It uses that system  to create some sort of a Fugiwara effect that traps the 500mb low in the northern plains.

 

0IvQswZ.png

yw4InBg.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the parade of highs coming down the middle the country on this run...I'm gonna guess if we squeeze a couple inches out of next week (great start for December) we gonna need the block to relax a bit before we get something a little more. Man what we wouldn't give to have an STJ with this block! But such ain't the nina way, lol But a few inches in December is still a nice bonus!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thought I'd transfer this here since it applies:

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would argue it's even more sheared in this run, actually..  It's completely rushed into oblivion promptly after 102 to 108 hours....within a day it's completely been destructively interfered down to a shear axis. 

I've never seen that before.    It's as though it has brought the entire Ferril trade band all the way down 45 to 50 N.   It has an easterly jet at 500 mb from SE Canada to lower B.C.

image.png.96277b9f3bf5982389dd861cf9a2adb4.png

My personal assumption is these runs are in error ... but who knows. It's an abrupt change ...nooormally that's a red flag in itself, but model wildness isn't uncommon in the extended. Also, the NAO is a suppression factor.  I think though doing this, that abruptly on D5 is a little more odd than normal though, particularly when the ensemble mean is divorced from that idea, and cross guidance doesn't agree much either.   Strange...  some conflicting arguments here, but it seems the weight is against.   That above is about as suppressed as is imaginably possible within Terran physics - mooshed to non existence.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:


That’s the 18z btw. Wxbell having issues.

GFS is only model out of all of them racing that PAC ULL east as fast as it does. It’s acting as a kicker. There really isn’t a difference I see in the 50/50. Really think the kicker is playing a role here with the shred


.

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

What do we need to root for then lol?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Chris78 said:

What do we need to root for then lol?

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

Thanks for the response. 

So basically good luck lol. :lol:

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a needle threader though to get JUST enough ULL strength in the Plains and JUST enough spacing with the 50-50 so the coastal can turn the corner but stay offshore. But that’s the 6z solution I guess so it’s possible. Just hard.

Exactly. Perfectly stated.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...