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December 2022


dmillz25
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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s been tough to get colder patterns later in December since that period is warming more quickly than the early part of the month since 1981. The late December Arctic cold of 2017 was one of the greatest temperature outliers of recent times. This is also why we have seen so much warmth around the solstice to Christmas in recent years.

 

16491FF3-17D1-429B-ACAB-D84B37186393.thumb.jpeg.9d0f2db86cc0c7ab7a9b6974cb6985f5.jpeg

AB967300-E8CF-4EC6-B9F4-6855CF51DF6E.thumb.jpeg.bafa4d8150ed5cb804bbcd0d11f29d5c.jpeg

 

2017-18 was so interesting, we had that arctic cold and bomb blizzard in early January and then we had another extreme block with more snow in March and April.

February was the only mild month that season.

That was "the other" kind of La Nina.

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Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced during late November to the present and has finally shown at least a Normal front 7----but still is super cold (or is that 'stupid cold' for the month.

1672704000-HhDUUhSYiFQ.png

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It took close to 10 days for the retrogression to complete following the strongest global 500 mb block since 1950.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2011/01/26/while-the-u-s-shivered-amazing-arctic-warmth/

stu500.jpg


 

6780EAC4-F0F4-4523-B1F3-B0A5592A3455.gif.dcd73c1ac04e2800b980030d81bfd98e.gif

49DF0B11-57CB-4B2E-992E-00CDD676E72D.gif.2cedfc638ebfe1f2b8b98ebfa39272b1.gif

Wow most of the dates on that list went below zero, I believe 1/19/85 was the last time JFK went below zero and it was also the last time we had a high in the single digits wasn't it?

And look at Jan 1977 with 4 days in that list lol.  And how did we get an extreme block like that in August in 1956?

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

2D24EB81-550C-4A78-A954-13CB2168CA8F.gif

Yes like last winter, the big snow fell to the east of NYC (but better than Nemo here since we also got in on it.)

 

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

The storm last January was a lot better for us than Nemo, though the heaviest snows were also east (and south of us), got over a foot in it so not complaining lol.

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment.


 

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EAST HADDAM           35.5   845 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK          30.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

 

NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   WEST HAVEN            34.0  1040 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTHFORD             33.5   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOLCOTT               33.0   457 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   EAST HAVEN            33.0  1005 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GUILFORD              33.0  1113 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   NORTH GUILFORD        32.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY             32.0   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MADISON               32.0   321 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NAUGATUCK             30.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC

 

NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER            31.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

It doesn't come close to matching "Jonas" Jan 2016 though on the NESIS scale.  And the NESIS maps for Jan 2016 are underdone and it's still the third best KU event on the list (I'll put it ahead of March 1960 and right behind January 1996 and March 1993.)

 

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11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced during late November to the present and has finally shown at least a Normal front 7----but still is super cold (or is that 'stupid cold' for the month.

1672704000-HhDUUhSYiFQ.png

That clown JB always uses this model

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5 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs now shows a cutter an cmc shreds the storm lol..  models can't catch on in this pattern. Check back Wednesday 

Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles?  That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation!

While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.

 

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Over the last 10 years the average high for the whole month has been 64. There was a slow but steady rise from the 20s to the 80s. But a big jump in the last 10 years of December record warmth.

 
Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year Dec Season
Mean 64 64
2021 66 66
2020 62 62
2019 58 58
2018 61 61
2017 61 61
2016 60 60
2015 72 72
2014 65 65
2013 71 71
2012 62 62
2011 62 62


 
Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year Dec Season
Mean 61 61
1980 64 64
1981 58 58
1982 72 72
1983 59 59
1984 70 70
1985 55 55
1986 59 59
1987 60 60
1988 60 60
1989 53 53

 
Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year Dec Season
Mean 60 60
1959 57 57
1958 55 55
1957 59 59
1956 67 67
1955 53 53
1954 61 61
1953 63 63
1952 59 59
1951 64 64
1950 60 60

 
Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year Dec Season
Mean 59 59
1929 56 56
1928 60 60
1927 68 68
1926 49 49
1925 58 58
1924 61 61
1923 64 64
1922 57 57
1921 59 59
1920 58 58

To me this makes perfect sense given global warming. Reduced arctic sea ice means a lag in northern hemisphere cooling. Throw in record offshore water temps and it’s a recipe for delayed winter. I think this just intensifies in the future.
I have no problem tossing the first half of December. Given the long range forecast at least we aren’t looking at a 01/02 style warm ratter


.
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I thought the 00z eps was outstanding. The NAO block retros to west based on the 13th which has been the target date. Which in turn is starting to knock down the SE ridge. Still some Pacific troughing hanging out early on. But the Pacific straightens right out later in the run. These things take time to evolve, we're in good shape IMO. First panel is day 9 now too. 

44712941_index(96).thumb.png.bbf0b149d677d3a00b722de7fa119a33.png

1980160048_index(97).thumb.png.d11a17a3cdae582b1ccf6148da137c31.png

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12 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Why are they continuing to run this model?       Its front 7 has been super cold throughout the AN days experienced

That’s the well known CFS cold bias with the blue line at the very bottom. It’s not meant to be a temperature forecasting tool. I am not sure why the CFS is even run anymore since the long range seasonal forecasts are very inaccurate. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/

 

291B7557-233A-4DCE-B023-A9ED88E159F2.thumb.png.929648d5f1b640cda57d1a1b618ef9b8.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging     48degs.(45/51) or +9.       Range is tight due to clouds and lots of rain perhaps.

1670133600-vFVs3jnbH9U.png

Reached 56 here yesterday (really held for entire day time hours)

Today:    43-45, wind w., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

40*(56%RH) here at 6am.     39* at 7am.       41* at 11am.        Reached 47* at 3pm.       45* at 5pm.      41* at 10pm.

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28 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging     48degs.(45/51) or +9.       Range is tight due to clouds and lots of rain perhaps.

1670133600-vFVs3jnbH9U.png

Reached 56 here yesterday (really held for entire day time hours)

Today:    43-45, wind w., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

40*(56%RH) here at 6am.     39* at 7am.

Question being that you post the GFS OP for temps all the time..can you post the 0z GFS OP for the next 16 days next to it,just to show the difference

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles?  That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation!

While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.

 

It is because far too many people fail  to account for climate change.  The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same.

The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably.

Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast.

Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO.

Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.

 

 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


To me this makes perfect sense given global warming. Reduced arctic sea ice means a lag in northern hemisphere cooling. Throw in record offshore water temps and it’s a recipe for delayed winter. I think this just intensifies in the future.
I have no problem tossing the first half of December. Given the long range forecast at least we aren’t looking at a 01/02 style warm ratter


.

Correct

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Morning thoughts…

Today will sunny but much cooler. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

Warmer air will return on Tuesday. A sustained cold pattern could develop around or just after mid-month.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.2°; 15-Year: 48.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0°

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s the well known CFS cold bias with the blue line at the very bottom. It’s not meant to be a temperature forecasting tool. I am not sure why the CFS is even run anymore since the long range seasonal forecasts are very inaccurate. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/bias/

 

291B7557-233A-4DCE-B023-A9ED88E159F2.thumb.png.929648d5f1b640cda57d1a1b618ef9b8.png

 

Initially when it started running, I liked it....  haven't been using this model for at least 4 years.  

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is because far too many people fail  to account for climate change.  The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same.

The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably.

Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast.

Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO.

Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.

 

 

Yes this is a definite pattern as long as I can remember, stormy out west and quiet in the east and vice versa. 

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30 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes this is a definite pattern as long as I can remember, stormy out west and quiet in the east and vice versa. 

Very 70's, 80's and 90's..western trough and -PNA dominated..There were exception's that lead to great winters,but really this is climo in December for NYC and the coastal sections

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