Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,281
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jvinch
    Newest Member
    Jvinch
    Joined

November 2022


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, wdrag said:

Anyway:  Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here.  Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT).  OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI.

Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve. 

 

 

I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed.  No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed.  No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal. 

Wind caused some pretty big issues at a fire in Mystic Ct overnight.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow will be cool day. However, temperatures will rebound during the middle of the week.

New York City will very likely see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild. However, with the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December, should the teleconnection forecast verify and the most common clusters of 500 mb patterns (75% of such cases) develop.

The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +23.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.425 today.

On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.826 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.631 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9° (2.9° above normal).

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 49°

Temperatures will rebound tomorrow, but rain is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.4°; 15-Year: 49.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.0°; 15-Year: 51.5°

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last two days of November are averaging    45degs.(40/51) or +3.        Week 1 of December is averaging    46degs.(39/53) or +6---so no winter till Dec. 08+++++??????

Month to date is   51.4[+3.1].          November should end at    51.0[+3.0].

Reached  51 here yesterday.

Today:   44-47, wind s., p. sunny, 46 tomorrow AM.

38*(66%RH) here at 6am.       39* at 8am.    40* at 9am.     42* at 10am.    44* at 11am.      45* at Noon.     Reached 47* at 3:30pm.      44* at 6am.     45* at 8am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clouds will increase overnight. During the pre-dawn hours, the temperature will begin to rise. Rain will then overspread the region during the morning. Some of the rain could be briefly heavy. The temperature will top out in the upper 50s to perhaps 60° in parts of the region.

New York City is all but certain to see a November mean temperature of 50° or above for the 21st time and second time in the last three years. A disproportionate share of 50° or warmer November cases has occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

December could start mild, though it will be noticeably cooler than tomorrow. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December.

The latest EPS suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +27.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.932 today.

On November 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.745 (RMM). The November 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.826 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9° (2.9° above normal).

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Rain will overspread the region this morning. A general 0.25”-0.75” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. It will also become windy with gusts reaching or exceeding 40 mph. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 60°

Tomorrow will be blustery and cooler.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 50.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.6°; 15-Year: 51.2°

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last day of November is averaging    51degs.(45/58) or +9.        The first week of December is averaging   44degs.(39/50) or +4.

Month to date is    51.0[+2.8].          November will end at    51.0[+3.0].

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:    54-58, wind s. to w.-breezy, cloudy, Rain  10am-7pm., 35 tomorrow AM.       A little windy around 1pm from south, quickly goes to west and calms down.

1669831200-AppT7iXgl3I.png

 

47*(75%RH) here at 6am.       51* at 7am.      52* at 9am.      54* at 10am.       55* at 11am.     56* at Noon.        57* at 2pm.       58* at 4pm.      Wind gusts failed here again.          55* at 6pm.       52* at 7pm.      46* at 10pm.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long Island could see some peak gusts in the 50-60 mph range with the heavier downpours later. There  isn’t much of an inversion to prevent the 975mb 50KT LLJ from mixing down. So this should be one of our stronger frontal passages in a while.


6E21A8BB-E4E9-48C0-9DE5-05CD461CD46B.thumb.jpeg.246ae3d488486f53aac2425bfcfdba53.jpeg

 


010A6E23-1F39-4FB0-9A2C-2C86830ABD0A.thumb.png.8aa9d8dcac2ed4b402fd34ff3fe0a9cc.png

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming.

 

Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT.

 

Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS.  Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA.

 

Wind advisory plays well.

KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wdrag said:

So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming.

 

Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT.

 

Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS.  Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA.

 

Wind advisory plays well.

KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
 

 

Definitely not underperforming.  Very high winds and heavy rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...