Juliancolton Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 4 hours ago, gravitylover said: 2500 pounds? Damn.. A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Just now, Juliancolton said: A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 I expect the 3,000 pound threshold to be surpassed within the next few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Anyway, looks to me like the EPS was well onto this and first to lead us to a potentially wet scenario, about a week ago. I know many think 10 day daily forecasts of temp and rain/no rain are helpful-reliable, but this is another case when beyond day 4 or 5, rain/no rain is not, in my opinion, wise to express in one image. We just can't reliably post a one image of weather beyond 4 or 5 days. Temp probably has a halfway decent idea within a range of 5F or so degrees... but weather = NOT. We continue to do this and when I see this, I start looking for downfall---what can wrong. That's what prompted me to look last weekend. So, I don't know how much rain in any location but by 15z Thursday, my guess is a likely 2-4" in a narrow N-S band or two. Primary suspect is somewhere LI/CT but also can't rule out something near the DE River in NJ/PA (NLCS impact this afternoon?) where the nwwd trend of PWAT sort of stalls, before,,, ???? Joslyn, yes Joslyn, it's leftover dissipating PWAT arrives sometime Wed/early Thu. Finally a period of dry weather should arrive by Fri. Otherwise, lots and lots of clouds today-Thu morning, and after the initial good pulse of rains later today-tonight, sporadic areas of a couple hours of drizzle or showers daily Mon-Thu morning. AND, unclear to me still, but several ensembles have above normal rainfall here the first few days of Nov...a persistent signal especially EPS/GEPS. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Looks like more rain for the area now then forecasted a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(56/67) or +6. Month to date is 56.6[-3.1]. Should be 57.8[-0.6] by the 31st. Reached 64 here yesterday. Today: 61-65, wind ne.-breezy, cloudy, rain possible from Noon today to Noon tomorrow-about 0.5", 52 tomorrow AM. An AN, cloudy, and sometimes rainy-breezy week is coming up. GFS looks overdone with the BN around Nov. 04-05. EURO is straight AN through Nov. 02.-not shown. W While neither the EURO or CMC go far enough in time, the GFS keeps showing another 'big blow' for P.R. This airport is in nw. P.R. and gets 120mph winds and 8".: 58*(85%RH) here at 7am. 60* at Noon. 61* at 1pm. 55* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Im gambling on a fart today and made a tee time for 1230. Probably will get wet but not a washout. Trying to sneak in rounds before winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 12 hours ago, Cfa said: Quite smoky in north central Suffolk tonight. Thought I saw "smoke" along the NJ GSP Ocean to Monmouth counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Still a tricky forecast for the next couple days. .5 to 2". Thankfully not winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like more rain for the area now then forecasted a few days ago. Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Bust Tonight Periods of rain before 2am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Parts of the region experienced occasional showers and light rain during the afternoon into the evening. Periods of rain will continue into tomorrow. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25"-0.75" of rain. There will likely be a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain east of New York City into southern New England, including Bridgeport, Islip, and Boston. Additional showers are possible on Tuesday. With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +23.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.380 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.222 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.3° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 80% PoP? Maybe, but heavy rain? Looks like confined to MA and SNE despite Upton continued bullish disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 54 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: 80% PoP? Maybe, but heavy rain? Looks like confined to MA and SNE despite Upton continued bullish disco. The models did horribly again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 10 hours ago, Dark Star said: Thought I saw "smoke" along the NJ GSP Ocean to Monmouth counties... It was very visible here in certain areas, even at night. I smelled it for the entirety of my miles-long drive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 0.10” here today. High of 60, low of 50. Currently 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The models did horribly again I fear this going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Everything heading to ELI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/22/2022 at 10:59 PM, Juliancolton said: A couple growers in England lost a 2907-pound pumpkin to a pinhole in late August. It would have easily crossed the 3000 lb threshold. http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=334890 a pinhole? how are they getting pumpkins to be this huge? I remember a few years ago we didn't even have a 1000 pound pumpkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 65° It will become noticeably warmer tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0° Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 13 hours ago, qg_omega said: Bust 9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: The models did horribly again Up to .4 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 On 10/22/2022 at 3:52 PM, Cfa said: All this talk of early changing foliage and we seem right on schedule for our usual early November peak. For most of us, it started much earlier than last year. And much earlier than recent years. I did notice on my trip to Wading River how sparse color was out your way…and I chalked it up to extended drought conditions that didnt really effect rest of area as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 The warmest departures will go to our north this week and are set maintain the near record warmth up near Caribou, Maine. This was their 3rd warmest first 3 weeks of October for high temperatures. It’s really impressive since the average high there was only a little warmer than Newark. Goes to show how strong that record warm pool is east of New England. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 1947-10-23 62.4 0 2 2017-10-23 62.2 0 3 2022-10-23 61.7 0 4 2021-10-23 61.2 0 5 2016-10-23 61.1 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 The last 8 days of October are averaging 59degs.(54/64) or +5. Month to date is 56.7[-2.6]. October should end at 57.3[-0.6]. This means Oct. 6-31 would have been about +1---so basically an AN month. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 60-65, wind se.-breezy late, cloudy, rain. EURO is strictly AN into Nov. 03. GFS totally the opposite for late Oct. into Nov.: 55*(99%RH) here at 7am., rain. 59* at Noon. Reached 61* at 3pm. 60* at 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 .60" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Received .21" last 24 hours. Just enough to keep the new newly scattered grass seed moist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Attached D1 rainfall via CoCoRaHs for your comparisons. Click for clarity. Will add D2,3,4 and total D1-4 as future days complete. Suppose there will be drying aloft that may negate much of the heavier rains tonight-Wed night but PWAT nwwd push of around 1.5" continues til the remains of Joslyn RH arrives from the southwest. Note I see no comment NWS on this dissipating Joslyn embedded moisture band ahead of the cleansing cold frontal passage Wed night, so it's probably at worst a nominal contribution. Heaviest rain in our area so far through 8AM EDT Monday Oct 24, appears to be central NJ. Wantage about 0.17 and increasing. The future: after drying out Thursday for a nice Fri-Sat-early Sunday (Oct 28-30), then I think we can look forward to what appears to be one or 2 significant 1+ rain events for the area between Halloween and Saturday night Nov 5. EPS/GEPS continue prior days suggestions. DEP NYC reservoir data has not updated since Oct 14. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: a pinhole? how are they getting pumpkins to be this huge? I remember a few years ago we didn't even have a 1000 pound pumpkin. The first 1000 pounder was 1996, so it's been a little while now, but still incredible advances over a fairly short period. It's probably the most focused breeding program in history. Thousands of growers selecting almost exclusively for size, year after year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Just now, Juliancolton said: The first 1000 pounder was 1996, so it's been a little while now, but still incredible advances over a fairly short period. It's probably the most focused breeding program in history. Thousands of growers selecting almost exclusively for size, year after year. The ex-guitarist for Faith No More after leaving the band was growing 1000 pound+ pumpkins and winning contests in the early to mid 2000s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, FPizz said: The ex-guitarist for Faith No More after leaving the band was growing 1000 pound+ pumpkins and winning contests in the early to mid 2000s. There’s a joke here about smashing pumpkins but I can’t figure it out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 12 hours ago, Cfa said: It was very visible here in certain areas, even at night. I smelled it for the entirety of my miles-long drive. What was the source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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