October 2022

[wdrag]

32 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

on RadarScope I checked the accumulated rainfall IMBY with the KDIX, KOKX, KENX and KBGM and none were even close to the 1.15" I recorded.  As has been stated many time before, those radar accumulation maps are less than accurate for many, if not all, locations. 

Sometimes, but often I think they are much closer to reality than this past event. My guess NWS does too, since they use this info to initiate FFW/FLW's for basins and sub basins. 

[wdrag]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, got the JFK totals?  The nearest totals to me in those maps were east or north of me, based on that looks like around 1.5" inches here or maybe slightly more.

 

JFK 1.22. CP 0.99. Others will contribute more and please click the CoCoRaHs map for more detail.  Will post the two day in 5 min.  Thanks, Walt

[wdrag]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is why?

algorithms.  Someone from NWS should reply if they have an answer.  I've been gone 4 years so am out of touch on details. Thanks.  Walt

[psv88]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We lucked out in Nassau/W Suffolk in how the second offshore batch of rain came about due north vs more east. According to radar (which might be low) I had about 0.9”. Places east of me clearly had more. 

Yea we had a nice firehouse park in western Suffolk for a 2-3 hours last night, probably 5 miles east of you. Nice training 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs two day totals. Click for more detail.   May see iso 4" two event total by 12z Tue the 18th but unlikely. Most ensembles are 1/4-1/2" for next Monday. 

 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

That last map is too vague, it's more than a half inch high where I am. 

I agree: Mesonet is sparsely populated compared to CoCoRaHs... try that.  This event had tow or three big bands. Largest nest the De River, a secondary NJ Coast one into w CT, then something I think e LI.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(52/64) or Normal.

Month to date is  57.6[-3.6].        Should be  57.8[-2.2] by the 22nd.       Going another 8 days on, the average is 62degs.(55/70) or about +6.        This would make us almost Normal for the month, with just a few days to go at that time.

Reached 66 here yesterday.

Today:    66-69, wind n. to nw., clearing skies, 55 tomorrow AM.

54*(90%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 9am.     57* at 10am.       59* at Noon.      61* at 1pm.     64* at 2pm.      66* at 3pm.      67* at 3:30pm.       Reached 70* at 5pm.        64* at 8pm.

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

0.39 in the bucket here.  Last of the clouds will likely come through the area east in the next 1 to two hours as we dry out.  Gorgeous weekend on tap. sun , dry upper 60s / low 70s.  Monday (10/17)  front comes through doesnt look like much rain.  Chill arrives Tue (10/18) - Thu (10/20) before moderating on Fri (10/22).  Ridge builds into the easy but low my get traped under the ridge and we may be overall warm but could turn wet.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Sometimes, but often I think they are much closer to reality than this past event. My guess NWS does too, since they use this info to initiate FFW/FLW's for basins and sub basins. 

I've seen them be closer but I haven't really started looking at them again until recently.  These maps will definitely be on my radar again...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

JFK 1.22. CP 0.99. Others will contribute more and please click the CoCoRaHs map for more detail.  Will post the two day in 5 min.  Thanks, Walt

Thanks looks like about an inch and a half sounds about right for me, being 5 miles east of there.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

JFK 1.22. CP 0.99. Others will contribute more and please click the CoCoRaHs map for more detail.  Will post the two day in 5 min.  Thanks, Walt

LGA around 1.75" Walt (based on the maps)?

 

[winterwx21]

Only 0.37 here, but not too disappointed since we got plenty of rain in recent weeks.

Three chilly days next week before it warms back up. Hopefully we can avoid the frost so the growing season can continue. It's going to be close.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We lucked out in Nassau/W Suffolk in how the second offshore batch of rain came about due north vs more east. According to radar (which might be low) I had about 0.9”. Places east of me clearly had more. 

I had 0.65"

[SACRUS]

Sun out now. 

[scootmandu]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

on RadarScope I checked the accumulated rainfall IMBY with the KDIX, KOKX, KENX and KBGM and none were even close to the 1.15" I recorded.  As has been stated many time before, those radar accumulation maps are less than accurate for many, if not all, locations. 

We got 2.25" here in NW Suffolk.. The radar accumulation totals were way off. 

[scootmandu]

The storm gave us 2.25" of rain. 1.23" before midnight and 1.02" afterwards. Radar was showing a continuous line of rain training over our area after midnight. It was a relatively narrow band over Eastern Nassau and Western Suffolk. I know my totals are fairly accurate, because my neighbor has a reporting station and his rainfall total was even slightly higher than mine.

I decided to experiment yesterday with storm forecasting totals. I used 2 weather apps predictions, and combined them with 5 weather models forecasts, whose localised rainfall forecast I got by going to Windy.com, using their map to pinpoint my exact location, and then went through the 5 models they have posted, which will show you the predicted precipitation amount, specifically for your area. These were the 24-hour predicted totals as of 6 PM last night (before our rain began later that hour):

Predicted totals

ECMWF 1.63   GFS 1.02   HRRR 1.03   NAM 0.99   ICON 0.24

And from the apps:

Weather Underground 0.86  Dark Sky 1.73

They were all off by at least a half-inch, some much more than that.

 

[nyrangers1022]

Another picture perfect afternoon.  Get them all while we can until a depressing dark gloom sets in for 4 months 

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Another picture perfect afternoon.  Get them all while we can until a depressing dark gloom sets in for 4 months 

Yep!  DST ends in a few weeks...4:30 sunsets

[nyrangers1022]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep!  DST ends in a few weeks...4:30 sunsets

Terrible.  

[nycwinter]

next year we will have 8:17 sunrise in late december awful..

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

next year we will have 8:17 sunrise in late december awful..

Why is that?  Did they pass the bill to keep DST all year round?  Have not heard much about it since it was proposed.

That 8:17 sunrise does not sound appealing.

[nycwinter]

No more moving clocks in the U.S. The measure passed by unanimous consent in the Senate…. This is the closest Congress has ever been to actually making this happen.”Mar 17, 2022 the house has yet to even discuss the bill but i am sure in the lame duck session after the elections it will pass..

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

No more moving clocks in the U.S. The measure passed by unanimous consent in the Senate…. This is the closest Congress has ever been to actually making this happen.”Mar 17, 2022 the house has yet to even discuss the bill but i am sure in the lame duck session after the elections it will pass..

Will be interesting to see what happens.  Thanks for the info.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Terrible.  

Weather should stay warm though. Looks pretty mild after a 3-4 day cool down next week. 

Mostly 60s and even a few 70s...indian summer galore. This weekend also looks fantastic 

[donsutherland1]

The sun returned and today wound up becoming a mild autumn day. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week.

Out West, it was a tale of two seasons. At Portland, the temperature soared to 82°, which tied the daily mark set in 1991. It was also Portland's 10th 80° day this month, easily surpassing the old record of 6 days. At Minneapolis, a daily record 0.4" of snow fell. The last daily measurable snowfall prior to October 15th occurred on October 14, 2018 when 0.3" fell.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +23.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.533 today.

On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.626 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (1.9° below normal).

 

[nyrangers1022]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather should stay warm though. Looks pretty mild after a 3-4 day cool down next week. 

Mostly 60s and even a few 70s...indian summer galore. This weekend also looks fantastic 

Agree.  Great golfing weather.  Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry

[thunderbolt]

8 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Agree.  Great golfing weather.  Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry

My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find

[bluewave]

This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14	Missing Count
1	1935-10-14	52.4	0
2	1945-10-14	53.5	0
3	1987-10-14	53.7	0
4	1965-10-14	54.1	0
5	1988-10-14	54.4	0
-	1981-10-14	54.4	0
6	1996-10-14	54.6	0
7	1964-10-14	54.9	0
-	1934-10-14	54.9	0
8	1977-10-14	55.1	0
9	2022-10-14	55.2	0

 

[nyrangers1022]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find

Leaves are the worst.  Hit a nice ball down the fairway, or even just off the fairway is very hard to find.  But the woods are a magnet for the ball

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(50/64) or Normal.          The 8 days after this are averaging  62degs.(55/67) or +8.

Month to date is  57.7[-3.3].        Should be  57.4[-2.1] by the 23rd.         Maybe  AN by the 30th.----after a head start of  45 negative degrees with those first 5 days.

Reached 70 here yesterday.

Today:  65-69, wind w. to s., m. sunny, 55 tomorrow AM.

54*(74%RH) here at 7am.       56* at 8am.      58* at 9am.     60* at 10am.       62* at Noon.        65* at 2pm.      Reached 66* at 4pm.        63* at 6pm.