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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Land induced ERCs on average last for a shorter time I believe than naturally occurring ERCs in a cyclone that has not had land interaction.  The cycle of life where Ian had this ERC was a tad earlier than normal as it really only took off in intensity 24 hours ago so it was probably caused by the Cuba landfall

Interesting. I realized this was land induced, but did not realize that those type are usually quicker. I'll know why if I miss a round of intensification. 

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12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Just goes to show how unpredictable they are. I mentioned in the other thread that Hurricane Matthew had an EWRC where the inner eye wall bounced around the outer eye wall like one of those old DVD screen savers for what must have been for over 24 hours. Ian seems to have completed this one in around 8-10 hours.

I remember during Matthew (I think), we saw essentially perfect conditions for Hurricane development: 

Two things I remember

1) We saw continual ERCs

&

2) The ERCs were relatively rapid and resulted in explosive RI after.  

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Winds really picking up here, gusting to 30-40 mph even without being in a squall line. Probably because there is an intense spiral band parked just west of me. 

NE quadrant filling out with storms suddenly, so SE FL is gonna start getting bigger impacts shortly. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The pressure rose another 2 mb, to 954 mb, per the latest recon pass.

That's kind of conflicting based on satellite presentation improving. Interesting. I guess still residual effects from EWRC. May be a while before we see any intensification or maybe not potentially. Radar presentation now is amazing and lightning going nuts in sw eyewall

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3 hours ago, Martytdx said:

I'm an amateur - how does one read this chart? Thanks in advance. 

The wind speeds are the bright colors, regardless of wind direction. in this case, it is a slice from west to east across the hurricane, so west is to the left. The 64 knot winds (hurricane force) are purple and higher, and the 96 knot winds (category 3) are light pink and other pink colors. The isotherms (0 degree C, -12 degree C, -18 degree C) are the small dashed lines that bump up in the middle of the storm. Hurricanes concentrates the warmer air at the eye, due to the latent heat release at the eyewall. The solid black lines are a little confusing as it represents potential temperature. When they dip down, then it is warmer. The 96 knots to maybe 115 knots on the east side of the eye reach very high into the air, about 35000 feet. Winds weaken at 40000 feet. The west side of the storm has some slightly different qualities in terms of how the winds change with height. The gray bump is due to the fact that the sea level pressure is around 950 mb, which is much different than the typical 1000mb.  The highest winds are above the surface, but certainly winds of up to 120 knots are not far from the surface.

 

This is a 12 hour forecast from the HWRF, for 06z

 

hwrf_Winds_10m_18_012_88462627_cross_weathernerds.png

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Um... okay?

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC
WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
from Big Pine Key westward to Key West.
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Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge 
Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West. 
The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased 
to 3 to 5 ft.

No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.
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0Z UKMET: landfall a bit north of the 12Z and is near Punta Gorda. Exits FL at Cape Canaveral. Then landfall a little north of Charleston:

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2022

             HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N  83.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2022    0  24.3N  83.0W      961            72
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   12  26.0N  82.6W      959            83
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   24  27.2N  81.8W      979            58
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   36  28.1N  81.0W      990            47
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   48  29.4N  79.9W      986            60
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   60  31.1N  79.5W      984            51
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   72  33.4N  79.7W      986            40
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   84  35.0N  80.6W     1001            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   96  36.0N  80.1W     1006            20
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  108              CEASED TRACKING

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Based on the radar, ERC is still wrapping up, which explains pressure increase.

In my view, it looks like another round of RI about to begin, especially cause convective DMAX is starting. 

The angle of approach and potential friction Ian is feeling would likely enhance any RI process that commences. Correct me if im wrong, given what I just said and the environment Ian is in, this is not the time to have a major hurricane undergo RI. There's little real estate between Ian and Florida now. Also, the classic limiting factors like dry air and shear have done nothing to limit/hinder Ian. With the deep convection primarily located upshear like what was noted by someone else in here earlier, Ian will continue to be resilient to dry air/shear.

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