Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,186
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    AtlanticWx
    Newest Member
    AtlanticWx
    Joined

Hurricane Ian


Scott747
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The stall over FL appears dead too-more models taking it steadily NE now....

That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. 

Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

image.png.0410b59c731aba9e6a5acbfe555a75c2.png

Yep, entirely different animal than it coming to the Northern Gulf coast ingesting dry air.  Much more classic scenario and favorable conditions for a major landfall.  Not good.  EURO track verbatim coming in near or a tad north of Charlotte Harbor would bring terrible surge and wind damage.  Like Charley but over a much wider area.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course

4cde05100d16c02c69de7c195157981e.jpg

I noticed this too.  I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side.  Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I noticed this too.  I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side.  Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls.

I thought maybe concentric eyewalls too, but want to wait for recon to make a pass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I noticed this too.  I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side.  Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls.

Yeah, i think the recon will shed some light on this feature.  it's also possible that the moat is a relic of the land interaction, as an earlier poster suggested.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall 

 

ian eye lit.gif

This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm.  Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course

4cde05100d16c02c69de7c195157981e.jpg

That’s what I was thinking earlier, radar out of Key West appeared to show dry air working in from west side

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Treckasec said:

3-D4-D0-C08-7-CC1-46-F4-890-D-486-C27002
 

The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing.

I would agree with you, just the west edge seems to be eroding which is concerning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Treckasec said:

3-D4-D0-C08-7-CC1-46-F4-890-D-486-C27002
 

The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing.

If correct not a good time to have that happen.  It will have time to "recover" / tighten up before landfall.  If it did not tighten up then the result would be a much more spread out wind field.  We'll have to see how this goes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm.  Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit.

Agreed. I think we may also be witnessesing the first stages of an attempted EWRC. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today:
1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas
2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall
3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC.
4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.

Definitely watching in Charleston. Wouldn’t be shocked to see even at Cat 1 run up in here
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...