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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Then of course, Charley moved further east and was much stronger. Just food for thought.

Thank you Floyd for the NHC track plots on Charley. The earlier forecast was remarkably accurate not only for the Florida Coast but also for the second landfall (I watched the eye pass directly overhead on Cape Fear, N.C.) The more updated forecast not only missed the Florida landfall but also had no second landfall at all! Charley is a good reminder that depending on trajectory a small error can rapidly magnify. 

While here let me thank you for the good work you do on your videos.

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3 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thank you Floyd for the NHC track plots on Charley. The earlier forecast was remarkably accurate not only for the Florida Coast but also for the second landfall (I watched the eye pass directly overhead on Cape Fear, N.C.) The more updated forecast not only missed the Florida landfall but also had no second landfall at all! Charley is a good reminder that depending on trajectory a small error can rapidly magnify. 

While here let me thank you for the good work you do on your videos.

18 years in modeling advancements 

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Given the large uncertainty in LF track it appears many Florida coastal communities (in South and Southwest) are choosing to delay preparations.  Residents there are not getting too focused yet on securing their property/ getting storm ready. 
 

 I hope this does not mean that by the time the LF track is locked in to a few counties we have inclement weather upon us that discourages those folks from evacuating and getting the supplies they will need to mitigate flooding/wind damage and loss of utilities etc.  

 

latest recon fix for Ian:

New recon fix for AF301 0909A IAN @ 2022-09-25 13:16:00 UTC: Lat/Lon 15.06,-79.66, MSLP 1005 mb

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Perhaps soon we can see some RI motivation. 

From @WxAtom

The most recent passes from both our recon planes (at 925mb and 700mb in pressure) seem to suggest Tropical Storm Ian has properly stacked it’s centers. 
 

A8EC78FC-188C-4C77-BD12-516E36AAD3CB.png

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10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

^That's a good thread right there thanks for sharing.  Perhaps the multiple vorticies yesterday brought the dry air in?

That's certainly possible. Also, I believe most thought that Ian would be a more "closed" system (literally and figuratively) by now, so some dry air/subsidence makes sense at the moment. 

Could change in a hurry if we see deep convection pop over that center. 

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Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning.  Surprised by lack of organized convection.  First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector.  Shear is light and water is warm.  Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve.  Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see.  Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall.  Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period.  Interesting overall situation to watch unfold.  Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward.  Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play.  No real cut answers this morning.  Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall.  Interesting to watch it unfold.

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1005mb? They might  be generous  calling this a tropical storm. Unless  it takes a hard right and hits south of Tampa it will come  in as a tropical storm with no sustained tropical storm winds  on land. If  it  hits  south of Tampa  i predict  it  will come  in at  105knots. Panhandle 50 knots

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12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning.  Surprised by lack of organized convection.  First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector.  Shear is light and water is warm.  Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve.  Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see.  Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall.  Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period.  Interesting overall situation to watch unfold.  Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward.  Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play.  No real cut answers this morning.  Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall.  Interesting to watch it unfold.

Euro, ICON and UKMET has been steadfast against the GFS and all the others that head it up the panhandle. Will be interesting to see what unfolds. 

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4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Euro, ICON and UKMET has been steadfast against the GFS and all the others that head it up the panhandle. Will be interesting to see what unfolds. 

Euro drops below 1000 mb about the latitude of Jamaica. GFS is 985 at that point. I hadn't seen intensity on UK or ICON. Seems GFS continues to underperform on short term intensity forecasts. 

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17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure looks like it’s still heading due west, not NW like forecasted 

I wondered last night what happens if Ian doesn't clear CA and never reemerges in the Atlantic Basin.  Board reaction would be interesting.  Edit- recon is WNW, which was last advisory direction.  Pressure is rising though per TT recon.

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I'm curious why everyone thinks Ian is less organized today than yesterday.  Recon found an actual defined low level center which wasn't present yesterday so the structure is significantly better than it was.

All the convection in the world doesn't mean anything if the structure isn't there to deepen. 

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa…

Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point.

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No change in TPC forecast cone with 11am advisory.  They did drop peak intensity from 120 kts. to 115 kts. not really a notable change.  They note changes in the day 3-5 track will "likely" require adjustments.  Landfall location will make a big difference in landfall intensity.  Further south stronger or central / eastern panhandle a weaker system at landfall.  EURO / UKMET have been solid on taking Ian into west coast FL.  We'll see how 12Z runs today evolve.

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12Z ICON hour 51 ~50 miles NE of 6Z at 57, which implies to me a further south landfall on FL vs prior run, which went just west of Tampa and then had landfall north of there, which would be potentially a really bad scenario for Tampa. Perhaps this run will landfall south of there, which wouldn't be nearly as bad.

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Plenty of members show a Tampa area hit, not sure I would call that “wishcasting”. Nothing is off the table at this point.
It's not even just any member. Granted, the ECMWF may come back west, but there is a notable concern for more track adjustments if it does not. We do not even yet have a well established stacked TC to feel deep layer steering as intensification modeling is behind schedule, so plenty of unknowns remain.
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24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa…

People are just following real time obs and trends. It's called weather forecasting. And the cluster has moved east, probably because models are trending faster. Might not pan out but something to watch. 

Screenshot_20220925_113107.jpg

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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