Hurricane Ian

[SnowGoose69]

CMC is east this run

[CamSE-Wx]

0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run

[turtlehurricane]

2 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said:

0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run

Can you please post link to where you get cmc runs this early. Or at least pic of new forecast

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Btw....just an FYI....not sure if anyone is following Super Typhoon Noru but it just completed an explosive intensification process that saw it gain 85kts+ in the last 24 hours. Upper echelon event for intensification processes worldwide

woah that's the other RI?  I wonder if it'll make it to Cat 5

 

[Kleimax]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Can you please post link to where you get cmc runs this early. Or at least pic of new forecast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022092500&fh=0

[TradeWinds]

5 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said:

0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run

Big jump east. Faster movement probably feels the effect of the trough more. Landfall at 12z was Destin to just N of Cedar key at 00z. 

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

Starting to think this is coming to the coast of bama. Sucks, literally just moved here. I'm in a rental and don't have a generator so I guess I'll be towing the boat and valuables and getting out of here and praying for the best. Stay safe folks 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022

        TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N  76.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 25.09.2022    0  14.7N  76.9W     1006            28
    1200UTC 25.09.2022   12  14.3N  79.4W     1004            25
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   24  15.7N  80.6W     1001            31
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   36  17.5N  82.2W     1000            33
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   48  19.6N  83.0W      998            37
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   60  21.8N  83.7W      995            36
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   72  23.9N  83.9W      994            41
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   84  25.4N  83.5W      992            49
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   96  26.1N  83.2W      991            54
    1200UTC 29.09.2022  108  26.6N  82.7W      991            49
    0000UTC 30.09.2022  120  27.4N  82.0W      990            49
    1200UTC 30.09.2022  132  28.6N  81.6W      990            43
    0000UTC 01.10.2022  144  30.2N  81.0W      989            44
 

[eyes2theskies]

Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Starting to think this is coming to the coast of bama. Sucks, literally just moved here. I'm in a rental and don't have a generator so I guess I'll be towing the boat and valuables and getting out of here and praying for the best. Stay safe folks 

Seems to me the models are shifting eastward. You should be in the clear. Curious to see what king euro does.

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface.  They will have to look farther west.

[TradeWinds]

00z ICON Sarasota landfall then rides due N over TPA. 

[CamSE-Wx]

Looks like the GEFS is shifting east as well, tad quicker

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface.  They will have to look farther west.

"Center" looks just a smidge S of NHC's 14.7N

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

5 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

Seems to me the models are shifting eastward. You should be in the clear. Curious to see what king euro does.

I'm a believer in the GFS so as much as I'd like to buy into the euro it's hard to. We really won't know until Monday I feel 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

"Center" looks just a smidge S of NHC's 14.7N

The center is still a mess and may reform, I'm still open anywhere MOB to TPA until the definite center is, well, definite.

[MattPetrulli]

GEFS east shift, still mainly west however

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET landfalls near Port Charlotte vs near or just north of Tampa on runs of 12 and 24 hours ago. So, this is 75+ miles south of those runs.

[Amped]

Lots of lightning on the NW side. Looks like a band is forming there. 

[Radtechwxman]

Like people were saying before, the longer this stays weaker and disorganized the more likely it will track further south and east which also could also a stronger landfall versus the alternative quicker strengthening system that gets more west and north and weakens rapidly before landfall due to dry air and shear from incoming jet/trough. 

[Floydbuster]

I recall with Charley the NHC had the EXACT final Florida landfall track nailed on an early forecast days before:

 

 

But then the computer models kept insisting it would move further west or ride up the coastline. So they shifted the track west.

 

The models were also insisting on fast weakening right before landfall:

MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
CHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS
TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.

 

Then of course, Charley moved further east and was much stronger. Just food for thought.

[MattPetrulli]

Curious what recon finds in the next pass. They found a circulation way to the SE of it with no convection so assuming its an old circulation or MLC that is severely decoupled. Looks ugly on satellite still, although evidence of convection firing towards end of the loop near the center near or slightly above 15 degrees, as placed by NHC.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NHC is almost a full degree latitude off between last forecast current position and where recon is finding it.  Not shown by models, but it could hit Central America and *never* reemerge in the Atlantic Basin the way it is looking.  Assuming it is strong enough to feel the trough, Eastern Louisiana to the Panhandle seems more likely as it is already S of the NHC initial position.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Hmmm.

 

[StantonParkHoya]

0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta.

overall pretty similar to 12z

[TradeWinds]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta.

overall pretty similar to 12z

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Honestly between 0z run yesterday of the Euro and 0z today, it’s maybe a 40 mile difference in track. Noise.

Split the difference with GFS is right where NHC has it. Big bend to central GA.

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon is finding the surface flow pretty similar to what it was early Saturday.  There is a weak center at 14.6N, south of all the convection.  Ian still has a lot of work to do before it can strengthen.

[Floydbuster]

Watching the satellite, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a reformation somewhere closer to the deep convection more around 15.5N/78.3W.

[Floydbuster]

I hate to say it, but the EURO looks more accurate as far as Ian's initial organization. It keeps it as a 1000 mb storm over the next 24 hrs, and then strengthens rapidly once in the Gulf. Right now that seems more realistic given it's current state.

 

[Radtechwxman]

Should be tropical storm train wreck instead of Ian because that's what it looks like. Lol. Tomorrow is the day NHC really expects Ian to take off but unless something majorly changes structurely I don't see it happening.