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Major Hurricane Fiona


GaWx
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53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't really think they jumped. The explanation in the 5am disco was compelling to me. It does look borderline now though. 

 

SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02

I would have to agree. This is not a major hurricane right now.

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I was apart of a research group on Sable Island this summer, so it holds a very special place in my heart. If you don't know where Sable Island is, it's that small crescent Island south of Nova Scotia about 200 miles off the coast.

I can't imagine what the scene will be on that island this coming Saturday. They've seen quite their fair share of storms, but this will be truly special. If I had to place a Webcam anywhere, it would be there. The surge could be unheard of. Wind is less of an issue due to minimal infrastructure and blowing of debris. But I am super interested to see how this plays out for Sable and mainland Nova Scotia

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm.  Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right?

Sell the verbatim pressure, for sure. Regardless of that fact, models are showing a large, powerful storm undergoing ET transition as it approaches.

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6 minutes ago, Newman said:

I was apart of a research group on Sable Island this summer, so it holds a very special place in my heart. If you don't know where Sable Island is, it's that small crescent Island south of Nova Scotia about 200 miles off the coast.

I can't imagine what the scene will be on that island this coming Saturday. They've seen quite their fair share of storms, but this will be truly special. If I had to place a Webcam anywhere, it would be there. The surge could be unheard of. Wind is less of an issue due to minimal infrastructure and blowing of debris. But I am super interested to see how this plays out for Sable and mainland Nova Scotia

Thanks for sharing, I was just researching the island this morning, noticed the speck on the NHC map. There actually is a webcam on the island:

https://www.windy.com/en/-Webcams/Canada/Nova Scotia/Sable Island/Sable Island Station/webcams/1408056380?43.930,-59.985,5

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50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm.  Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right?

Yeah I’m thinking it’s probably in the 940-50mb range which is already big time. It is extraordinary to see the ensemble members of the EPS be so deep though. 

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44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m thinking it’s probably in the 940-50mb range which is already big time. It is extraordinary to see the ensemble members of the EPS be so deep though. 

Expected pressure at landfall:

12z Euro is at 932mb

12z GFS is at 928mb

12z CMC is at 942mb

These are all at 96 hours with the storm at Nova Scotia/ Cape Breton Island.

Euro first saw this possibility early Saturday.

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This map is blowing my mind. I get the extreme high latitude in association with the Gulf Stream current for catagorical cyclone intensity potential. But the upper portion of the map seems impossible, as though those SSTs are running above normal, they're still very cold and way below the threshold to support a tropical surface low.


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