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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. 

Ya that was ridiculous, some of the public let their guard down for sure.. Unfortunately Marco Island to Sarasota under the gun for catastrophic storm surge and wind with only 24 hours to prepare now.  Tampa metro looking to dodge a bullet being north now with potentially moderate storm surge, however now euro and gfs forecasting 25-50" of rain and widespread 80-100mph winds through a large part of western Florida. 

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that was ridiculous, some of the public let their guard down for sure.. Unfortunately Marco Island to Sarasota under the gun for catastrophic storm surge and wind with only 24 hours to prepare now.  Tampa metro looking to dodge a bullet being north now with potentially moderate storm surge, however now euro and gfs forecasting 25-50" of rain and widespread 80-100mph winds through a large part of western Florida. 

I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal 

6z GFS basically stalls near the coast for 24-36 hours. Don't think any other model has such an extreme stall. However, the NW quad is at risk of some excessive rainfall.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. 

That was contingent on a further north track. The more southern LF changes things because it doesn't encounter the hostile conditions prior to LF.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining to much latitude, but that is by the boards.

What are your thoughts about the track adjusting further east after LF, putting it back out (briefly) over the Atlantic? Seems more viable today than yesterday, but still a relatively low likelihood compared to it meandering just inland. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What are your thoughts about the track adjusting further east after LF, putting it back out (briefly) over the Atlantic? Seems more viable today than yesterday, but still a relatively low likelihood compared to it meandering just inland. 

I haven't really even considered it because I'm not really interested in that part of it. It was never an option up here, aside from remnant rains.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fair enough. I respect the consistency on avoiding things not of interest to you. :lol: 

No, I mean...its fair game to discuss and certainly relevant. I just have zero interest in what this does beyond FL....conditions don't look favorable for regeneration, and I'm not in the habit of tracking moist carcasses. Its going to bring rain to the se, I'm sure....WHOOP DE DOO. lol

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