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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this went from a plains dominated heat blast to war dominated dewpoint heat 

Right on cue as the Western Atlantic SSTs are back to near all-time warmth for this time of year. We had a brief cooling from June into early July before the rapid rebound. Seems like the models have been consistently underestimating the WAR/SE Ridge beyond 120 hrs since around 2015. This is when the warm pool along with the perma-ridge began setting one new record after another. 
 

6CBDD43C-97DD-482E-8CFE-EFA3AD1D3437.thumb.jpeg.fe4d8a4a7794628e6b1780c014d93f55.jpeg

 

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25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

80 degree dewpoint watch fri through tues

 

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to imagine we all go dry with dewpoints like that....

Whatever storms we do get will be capable of dropping some very heavy rain with a DP like that.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has 75°+ dewpoints and 2.00+ PWATS from Friday until next Tuesday. So there there will be very heavy convection potential with the daytime heating. It will probably start out focusing along the daily sea breeze fronts and prefrontal trough. Then with the slow moving cold front next week that gets closer. But the heaviest rainfall locations each day probably won’t be known until the short term when we get inside the range of the high resolution meso models. 

Good potential for urban flash flooding IMO. It wouldn't surprise me if some places pick up a few inches of rain in a fairly short period of time. 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has 75°+ dewpoints and 2.00+ PWATS from Friday until next Tuesday. So there there will be very heavy convection potential with the daytime heating. It will probably start out focusing along the daily sea breeze fronts and prefrontal trough. Then with the slow moving cold front next week that gets closer. But the heaviest rainfall locations each day probably won’t be known until the short term when we get inside the range of the high resolution meso models. 

especially with leftover boundaries from convection the previous day(s)

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49 minutes ago, Cfa said:

All I want for Christmas is a Sept 2010-style macroburst/tornado event centered on KNYC.

Good evening Cfa. Considering the incidents of extreme events, Christmas may not be a bad call. Stay well, as always ….

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31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@winterwarlock

warm Muggies coming 

Such is August 

 

Today was pretty rough heat index wise

We are getting some lawns in that have turned ratty after 2-3 weeks without a cut

 

Also did one full tarp of leaves and blew a ton of leaves into the woods

 

Will probably work Wednesday  and Friday and take Thursday off

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Some showers developing over NE NJ now headed towards NYC/Queens...its possible we could see a couple of them become a TSTM

Was it forecast today?

Anyway..in the Bx, at the track in Pelham Bay Pk it's partly sunny with moderate rain..a few heavier bursts. Home thermometer says rain and 90. Very FL like.  High was 93. 

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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will be another very warm day with similar temperatures.

The heat will likely peak on Thursday with temperatures rising well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall.

The SOI was +25.79 (old record: +20.20, 1998).

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.195 today.

On July 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The July 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.661 (RMM).

 

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Suffolk Water Authority expands water emergency to 4 East End towns

Suffolk County Water Authority officials have expanded water emergency conditions declared in Southampton Village to its customers in the entire town, along with Southold, East Hampton and Shelter Island. 

 

The declaration of a Stage 1 Water Emergency for those towns was made to ensure there is sufficient water for firefighting and other emergency purposes, Water Authority and municipal officials said at a Tuesday morning news conference. It comes just days after the state designated Long Island and more than 20 other counties to be on drought watch.

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