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July 2022


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Happy Fourth of July

A tremendous day on tap.  Sunny, dry and warm - its been a while since we had one of these.  Down to 57 here. Now 70/49.

Parts of the  central / NE - NJ may get 90(+) again for 6 straight days as heights remain elevated into the EC, otherwise mid / upper 80s for the area.  Great fireowrks viewing dry and in the 60s. 

Warmer overall through Wed with push of more warm/hot Tue (7/5)and Wed (7/6, where only storms, showers or clouds will prevent more 90s, especially in the warmer spots.  Still a matter of timing any pop up and more areawide rain/ showers.   Tue/ Wed look to see mainly pop up / scattered storms before Thu (7.7) /Fri (7/8) more widespread.    

Ridge remans anchored into the Rockies with heat dome centered near the mile high city through the week of  Mon 7/11).  Trough builds into the G/L and North east wrap around E/NE flow keeping it near or below normal.  By the Tue (7/12) / Wed (7/13) a chuck of the Denver doozie is heading east and may scrape the area for a 2 day blast of stronger heat, before next front.  

 

Looking in the way beyond and Western heat may expand and link with Western Atlantic Ridge near the other side of mid July.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 88°

It will be variably cloudy with some scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.1°

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7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think maybe I do actually. I do not know exact timing. But given the computer model output of the last few days it seems to me that the pattern is trying very hard to change. The blocking has to decrease to allow that to happen and something has to trigger the blocking to break down. And I can now see several ways that it might occur. The maps go back and forth and I think the GFS frankly is in a bit of a rush trying to change the pattern, it might be slower and later on. But the GEFS has been trending warmer with less blocking for the passed several runs and the EPS towards the end of its runs has begun trending that way as well. There is uncertainty and the blocking could return quickly. But if we're in a different spot in the flow and the blocking returns with our being under WAR, it's a whole new ballgame. And that's how we'd get a very long duration heatwave.

WX/PT

Great post-thank you for the discussion.

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Blue Skies - nothing but blue skies

Good Vibrations kind of day

Don't think you can ask for a better combo of days between yesterday and today.  Perfect weather for the 4th, deep blue skies.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal issued back on June 5th is doing a pretty good job so far for July. Notice the main theme was the ridge remaining to our west since June. It will be interesting to see what it comes up with for August when the forecast is updated tomorrow. We will also get a hint of how the fall pattern and La Niña could progress. 
 

July forecast issued on June 5th


E225C6C6-3970-421C-AE24-AF1ECA6321D6.thumb.png.fc1684298c5569a6f816482a8cc3a9ab.png


Current forecast for the next 2 weeks 


252A804C-12C0-4787-B863-78BEA7EAC220.thumb.png.1ccb93802246235f3d63d17794d9689f.png

9471BA14-21FE-46C8-9943-3829FE71289C.thumb.png.28d5649d7772e8487e6d3c25284a894c.png

62D45E22-E721-4E74-A6AA-D71F19AA6057.thumb.png.55927138f107e2413cbadf4ee849a225.png

 

 

@donsutherland1This also may play a role. This solar cycle is way outperforming expectations by a lot. Scientists are calling it an unusually high amount of solar activity. There has been high solar/sunspot activity well beyond what was expected so far this year: https://www.sciencealert.com/the-sun-is-way-more-active-than-official-solar-weather-predictions/amp

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16 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Don't think you can ask for a better combo of days between yesterday and today.  Perfect weather for the 4th, deep blue skies.

Top 10'er

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50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This also may play a role. This solar cycle is way outperforming expectations by a lot. Scientists are calling it an unusually high amount of solar activity. There has been high solar/sunspot activity well beyond what was expected so far this year: https://www.sciencealert.com/the-sun-is-way-more-active-than-official-solar-weather-predictions/

The West Pacific warm pool is also the warmest that it has ever been this time of year.

 

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fwiw and unsure whether others on here notice:  D1, D2 qpf generally closely follows SPC HREF.  In summer am not sure that is a good idea, thinking that there must be some stats that show other convective modeling can improve on SPC HREF; especially in normal or above normal PWAT situations.  This is where I think SPC HREF has a consistent failure to recognize qpf above what it predicts in the MEAN.

Additionally,  I thought this image would demo at least one part of the SPC checks for SVR D2. Exampled HRRR expectations of SVR vs the SPC 2.  NW flow driven convection.  

Am rooting for rain that has missed this part of Sussex County..about 0.2" since June 23. Checking back, noticed it's been pretty dry eastern NYS and much of NJ the past month generally 25-50% of normal. 

 

See attached for use of HRRR guidance and click for more details.  

 

On 7/6 around 10z-619AM EDT, I added the SPC sir reports for comparison.

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-07-04 at 11.58.22 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-07-06 at 5.50.01 AM.png

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Tomorrow will variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The newest EPS weeklies suggest that a sustained period of above normal temperatures could develop after mid-July.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +9.17.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.296 today.

On July 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.243 (RMM). The July 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.103 (RMM).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

Tomorrow will be fair and very warm, but unsettle3d weather will develop for Thursday and Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.3°

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No heatwaves yet east of the Hudson through July 4th. Mostly just 1-2 days at a time of 90s before we cool off. Newark and Harrison are the only stations with an official heatwave so far.


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
  2 2022-07-02
- 2 2022-06-26
- 2 2022-05-22
  1 2022-06-17

 


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
  1 2022-06-17


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
  1 2022-06-17
- 1 2022-05-31



 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 1 2022-07-01
- 1 2022-05-31

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
  1 2022-07-01
- 1 2022-06-25
- 1 2022-05-31


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 2 2022-05-22
2 1 2022-07-01
- 1 2022-06-26

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
  6 2022-07-04
  2 2022-06-26
- 2 2022-05-31
- 2 2022-05-22
  1 2022-06-17


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 4 2022-07-04
2 2 2022-06-27
- 2 2022-06-01
- 2 2022-05-23
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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The West Pacific warm pool is also the warmest that it has ever been this time of year.

 

Another point to make is that even though we have entered into a strong -PDO cycle, we still have yet to see any cooling effect on global temps. Despite the hypothesis by some that global temps would drop with a -PDO, they haven’t so far…..at all, in fact the warming continues despite the -PDO.  IMO this proves something else is definitely going on (AGW?). Since the 15-16 super El Niño the already impressive warming has accelerated even more. Would like to get your thoughts and @donsutherland1thoughts on this? 

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The next 8 days are averaging  77degs.(69/86) or just Normal.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:  82-86, wind s. and breezy late, cloudy, rain late, 74 tomorrow AM.

For reference the year to date 2mT wise:      Texas/S.E. were hotter than this in June.

cdas_all_conus_tmp2m_anom_ytd_back_69144

Unless the MOS has been corrected on the GFS---it is looking a little anemic here:

1656979200-B0q3EcUAL10.png

71*(75%RH) here at 7am.        78* at 11:30pm.        71* at 6pm.

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Tue (7/5) More clouds than sun with some showers/storm later today into tonight.  Mostly mid 80s If we get longer breaks of sun perhaps an outside shot of some upper 80s 87- 90 in the warmer spots.  Not a whole lot of rain.  Wed (7/6) looks like the drier/warmer day this work week with increasing clearing and partly sunny and warm upper 80s / low 90s.  Th (7/7) and Fri (7/8) a bit unsettled with showers each day with a larger widespread rainfall on friday morning.  We'll see how much rain we can cash in on.

 

The weekend looks very nice on the latest modeling and next week a warmer / humid with temps hovering in the mid / upper 80s and with enough sun spots will break 90 especially by the 12-14.   

Some hints now that the W. A.R will build back in the mid month timeframe perhaps pulling a longer sustained fringe of the western furnace into and up along the east coast to end July on a hotter note.  We will see how it progresses.

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Another point to make is that even though we have entered into a strong -PDO cycle, we still have yet to see any cooling effect on global temps. Despite the hypothesis by some that global temps would drop with a -PDO, they haven’t so far…..at all, in fact the warming continues despite the -PDO.  IMO this proves something else is definitely going on (AGW?). Since the 15-16 super El Niño the already impressive warming has accelerated even more. Would like to get your thoughts and @donsutherland1thoughts on this? 


We had the super El Niño jump in 2016 which established the new higher baseline. Then a drop in temperature from 2017 to 2019 with the La Niña. The weak El Niño in 2020 was enough to almost reach  the 2016 record. Then the La Nina in 2021 and 2022 has prevented a challenge of the 2016 record. We will probably see the 2016 record surpassed the next time we get an El Niño.

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago. It’s showing a more defined La Nina 500 mb pattern for August. Typical La Nina WAR pattern  with warmer temperatures for us in August.


3A38E9FF-5D53-4026-B8E2-995A0297DA0B.png.a2b12861e0ab1d207630092b21b5b316.png

98E2A214-D66C-4043-8B3C-F68F94ABBD62.png.63a107760e24e7a118f5ef53e79a6305.png

It was just a matter of time before the WAR/SE ridge popped back up given the La Niña/-IOD/-PDO forcing in place. It is very well coupled with the atmosphere (SOI/MEI). It would not be surprising to see August and September torch, given the upcoming Niña strengthening expected 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago. It’s showing a more defined La Nina 500 mb pattern for August. Typical La Nina WAR pattern  with warmer temperatures for us in August.


3A38E9FF-5D53-4026-B8E2-995A0297DA0B.png.a2b12861e0ab1d207630092b21b5b316.png

98E2A214-D66C-4043-8B3C-F68F94ABBD62.png.63a107760e24e7a118f5ef53e79a6305.png

That's an ominous look with the tropics heating up. 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is beginning to show the SE Ridge/WAR pattern developing in mid to late July. So that’s probably when places like NYC and LGA see their first heatwave. The Euro has a classic endless summer pattern from August into October. 

47D5DA28-2EFB-4442-816F-F9BE18F40A8A.thumb.png.286b642afdafc988438de27a449d4488.png

3F18E559-59B8-4419-AD84-7DBECC6D3014.thumb.png.0a246615c136d966c201740012abff58.png


B6F24229-E3BE-4612-B4B1-1888659AD02D.png.de076d2203a1f34c202b1be3736aa193.png

70959202-29E0-481F-B692-139A601C6C8E.png.789ba58d728d1a706b85e0219b398989.png

5BE1963E-BE80-4EB6-A095-E033878802DE.png.04fb5d55d5841d0d1f7b7049ab2ae463.png

 

 

Yeah, the Euro has enhanced probabilities for Gulf and East Coast landfalls. 

A4CFFC13-9C30-408D-B484-E07563F55360.png.73dbf503a80176c4650ba99722bd45ac.png

 

It was just a matter of time. That La Niña means business and all the factors (-IOD, etc.) are in place for it to strengthen yet again….I don’t think a moderate peak in early winter is that far fetched. And yea, that new Euro is an ugly look if you don’t like heat. Aug-Oct looks nasty, SE ridge city. I think the things to look at going into winter will be 1) How strong does the La Niña get? 2) What does the stratosphere do, given the recent volcanic eruptions and the record water vapor that was introduced along with the volcanic ash and sulfate aerosols?  3) How strong does the +QBO get? 4) Does the high solar/sunspot activity continue? 5) What does the -IOD do? A -PDO/-PMM is pretty much a certainty, not much question there

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