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June 2022


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If NYC can drop below 55° Sunday morning, then it would be the first time this late in the season between 6-19 and 6-30 since 1995.

 

Latest lows under 55° in NYC since 1950

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1963 07-09 (1963) 54 08-25 (1963) 53 46
1979 07-06 (1979) 54 09-19 (1979) 53 74
1988 07-01 (1988) 53 09-06 (1988) 50 66
1995 06-28 (1995) 54 09-11 (1995) 53 74
1992 06-23 (1992) 52 09-13 (1992) 52 81
1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99
1986 06-18 (1986) 54 08-28 (1986) 52 70
1959 06-18 (1959) 53 09-16 (1959) 52 89
1950 06-18 (1950) 48 09-05 (1950) 54 78
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Under a partly cloudy to mainly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s across much of the region. Some locations could see the mercury dip below 50°. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek next week before warmer air returns.

Meanwhile, near record and record heat prevailed in parts of the Gulf Coast Region. High temperatures included:

Jackson: 97°
Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1913, 1944 and 1953)
Montgomery, AL: 98°
New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2011)
Pensacola: 100° (tied record set in 1953)
Tallahassee: 99°
Tampa: 98° (old record: 96°, 1975, 1998, and 2009)

Across the Atlantic Ocean, a record early-season heatwave continued to scorch parts of western Europe. High temperatures included:

Basel, Switzerland: 96°
Biarritz, France: 109°
Biscarosse, France: 107°
Cap Ferret, France: 107°
Cognac, France: 104°
Lyon, France: 101°
Offenbach-Wetterpark, Germany: 97°
Paris: 98°
Tours, France: 102°

During June 16-18, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +28.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.883 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.071 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.888 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.0° (normal).

 

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1655575200-equxDOsQPNc.png                         When Dallas  "Cools Off"  late in period---------the GFS goes bonkers in the 100's for us during July 04 Weekend.       Shades of 1966, 1999 or 2010 for the Holiday?

An average high for Dallas of 104 during period!

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Gust fronts ahead of squall lines can be interesting along the South Shore. I can remember a summer day in Long Beach with a strong sea breeze and temperatures in the low 80s. The outflow from a squall line rapidly shifted the winds to offshore. The temperature jumped from 83° to 96° in about 3 minutes. It had been in the upper 90s most of the day away from the sea breeze around NYC.

Along the water, anything is fair game.

Even when we used to get strong storms along the North Shore when I was a kid, you could see it coming on the water. Simply amazing how fast the weather changes

 

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I could see this kind of weather (maybe not quite this extreme) happening in several episodes over the next 2-3 weeks. There are some indications we might heat up a little at some point over the July 4th holiday weekend time-frame but most of the time the ridge is out west and we have cool high pressure systems moving e-se from central Canada and a stalled out frontal boundary setting up just offshore with waves of low pressure developing along it. We may squeeze in a day or two of warmer more summer-like conditions here and there but at the moment I'm not seeing any heatwaves prior to the second or third week of July. If this pattern were not to change, we could go the whole summer without a heatwave. I do not think that will happen but you never know.

WX/PT

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Down to 55 here.

LGA is 56, at least tying the record low set in 1958. Don't know if they went below btwn hourly observations or may still drop a degree..

JFK is 55, the record is 54 in 1965.

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On 6/18/2022 at 5:20 AM, LibertyBell said:

That can happen at JFK too!

 

This was one of the greatest temperature drops on record for JFK in late June. The chart below only uses hourly temperatures. So add another degree since the high at JFK was 94° between hours.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&hours=39&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

BDC8FCA4-9295-40EA-9E23-E1B012CC75AD.thumb.png.819bb142eb8a511b57c9ff7535041f84.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(63/81) or -1

Month to date is  70.9[+0.6].          Should be  71.3[+0.1]. by the 27th.

Reached just 68 here yesterday, but high was 79* back at midnight.

Today:  71-75, wind nw. and breezy, m. clear.

55*(53%RH) here at 7am.       58* at 9pm.       60* at 10:30am.       63* at Noon.       70* at 3pm.       72* at 4pm.       73* at 4:30pm.       Reached 78* briefly near 7pm.         72* at 8pm.

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First time that LGA tied or set a record low in late June since the 1990s.


 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
544 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 56 WAS TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 1958.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF A LOWER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

6/19 56 in 2022 56 in 1958 57 in 1959
6/20 55 in 1959 56 in 1940 57 in 1956
6/21 53 in 1940 55 in 1968 56 in 1970+
6/22 53 in 1992 54 in 1940 57 in 1963
6/23 53 in 1940 54 in 1992 54 in 1972
6/24 53 in 1947 55 in 1972 56 in 1940
6/25 55 in 1940 56 in 1979 57 in 1974+
6/26 56 in 1985 56 in 1979 56 in 1974
6/27 56 in 1972 56 in 1940 57 in 1985
6/28 55 in 1995 56 in 1970 57 in 1940
6/29 59 in 1995 60 in 1983 60 in 1970+
6/30 57 in 1996 58 in 1988 60 in 1940
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Morning thoughts…

Today started out with near record and record cold. At Binghamton, the temperature fell to 43°, which set a new record low for the date. The old record of 44° was set in 1956. It will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 76°

Tomorrow will see a continuation of the cool weather.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.8°; 15-Year: 80.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.6°

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