qg_omega Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Amazing outside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: more of a linked up ridge look on today's guidance While we get the more linked up look, energy is trying to sneak underneath. So we get more onshore flow with high pressure east of New England next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 67/51 off a high of 93 yesterday. Clouds pushing into the area from NYS. Cooler 60 hours before warmer/humid and some unsettelled weather moves in Tue (6/21) through next Fri (6/24) as ridge refires into the Plains and we are fringed. Euro cut off a ULL in the weakness along the east coast and its onshore city for 72 hours next week while the low meanders near the coastal Carolinas and we have onshore/clouds and storms. That bucked the prior trend of pushing the heat in for 24/36 hours on previous 6/17 12z guidance. We'll see where we go today but the seasonal tendency would argue another battle with onshore along the NE and EC. Beyond there next weekend 6/25 look to see flow go flatter and some of the heat come through. Plains ridge is a bit flatter as we open July on the longer range guidance so normal/bias warm would be the call as it stands now for the open of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's cold aloft and will continue getting colder. Self destructive sunshine so anything above 70F will be a struggle Not getting much sun either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 beautiful outside 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 And we have lost the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: While we get the more linked up look, energy is trying to sneak underneath. So we get more onshore flow with high pressure east of New England next week. that looks like the lead up to the late may over the top heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: That is so interesting! How much did it warm up? Jfk went from 83 to 94 in about 90 minutes when the winds shifted from south to west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: That is so interesting! How much did it warm up? Isp jumped only 6 degrees iirc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 it feels like a late september day passage of cold front a gusty breeze .. refreshing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that looks like the lead up to the late may over the top heat The GEPS has a middle ground between the GEFS and EPS. The high east of New England late next week becomes the Bermuda high a few days later. So the SSE flow becomes more SW and gives us a warm up in late June. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: Isp jumped only 6 degrees iirc It’s such an interesting phenomenon because you lose the offshore breeze. Very unique setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Pretty impressive for mid June. Temp has been holding steady at 68 for the past few hours with mostly sunny skies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It’s such an interesting phenomenon because you lose the offshore breeze. Very unique setup Gust fronts ahead of squall lines can be interesting along the South Shore. I can remember a summer day in Long Beach with a strong sea breeze and temperatures in the low 80s. The outflow from a squall line rapidly shifted the winds to offshore. The temperature jumped from 83° to 96° in about 3 minutes. It had been in the upper 90s most of the day away from the sea breeze around NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: Gust fronts ahead of squall lines can be interesting along the South Shore. I can remember a summer day in Long Beach with a strong sea breeze and temperatures in the low 80s. The outflow from a squall line rapidly shifted the winds to offshore. The temperature jumped from 83° to 96° In about 3 minutes. It had been in the upper 90s most of the day away from the sea breeze. Almost like a mini Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 70 and beautiful here Beautiful weekend on tap Off to Cherry Picking with my wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 I love this weather but I'm sure there's a lot of unhappy people about the very non summery, blustery 70F day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 kinda brisk i may have to close the window i do not want to catch a draft and get a cold... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 This picture has no heat. Maybe raw easterly winds, lots of clouds and dare I say rain. But it's the GFS which has been a joke so maybe these maps are a joke too. Plenty of heat out west. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Temperature went nowhere since this morning, actually dropped a degree or two, 67 now. Going to be a very chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 56 here as of 1:30 this afternoon, great day to go hiking here in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Temperature went nowhere since this morning, actually dropped a degree or two, 67 now. Going to be a very chilly night. Yes impressive for it to happen under a non onshore flow pattern a few days from the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Euro has temps in the 90’s on Tuesday in central Pa while we are stuck in the 60’s. Next weekend looks ugly on the euro with a cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 67 and cloudy. Average high for October 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 What a great day 66 and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Clouds have finally moved in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 If NYC can drop below 55° Sunday morning, then it would be the first time this late in the season between 6-19 and 6-30 since 1995. Latest lows under 55° in NYC since 1950 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1963 07-09 (1963) 54 08-25 (1963) 53 46 1979 07-06 (1979) 54 09-19 (1979) 53 74 1988 07-01 (1988) 53 09-06 (1988) 50 66 1995 06-28 (1995) 54 09-11 (1995) 53 74 1992 06-23 (1992) 52 09-13 (1992) 52 81 1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99 1986 06-18 (1986) 54 08-28 (1986) 52 70 1959 06-18 (1959) 53 09-16 (1959) 52 89 1950 06-18 (1950) 48 09-05 (1950) 54 78 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 clouds have finally moved in and now its pretty chilly with the wind. impressive for june. 63F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Under a partly cloudy to mainly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s across much of the region. Some locations could see the mercury dip below 50°. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek next week before warmer air returns. Meanwhile, near record and record heat prevailed in parts of the Gulf Coast Region. High temperatures included: Jackson: 97° Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1913, 1944 and 1953) Montgomery, AL: 98° New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2011) Pensacola: 100° (tied record set in 1953) Tallahassee: 99° Tampa: 98° (old record: 96°, 1975, 1998, and 2009) Across the Atlantic Ocean, a record early-season heatwave continued to scorch parts of western Europe. High temperatures included: Basel, Switzerland: 96° Biarritz, France: 109° Biscarosse, France: 107° Cap Ferret, France: 107° Cognac, France: 104° Lyon, France: 101° Offenbach-Wetterpark, Germany: 97° Paris: 98° Tours, France: 102° During June 16-18, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.883 today. On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.071 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.888 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.0° (normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now