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May 2022


bluewave
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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Extremely heavy downpour .... coming down in buckets. The storm isn't severe though. Maybe some 30mph gusts, and a few rumbles of thunder. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good watering though. Man is it coming down out there.

Really bad flooding all over union county

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3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

More sun and warmth than I expected today here in the City.  Not sure if that means anything regarding the severe potential later on.  Got my eyes peeled for a @forkyfork post.  :)

was at the beach. these ne moving lines tend to do well for nj/nyc and today was another example

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region. Some locations could again approach or reach 80°.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Galveston saw the temperature reach 93° today. That broke the daily record of 90°, which was set in 1922. Galveston has now had 6 90° or above days this month. The old May record of 4 days was set in 2011. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +3.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today.

On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.185 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.463 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

 

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