May 2022

[Rtd208]

 

NWS Philadelphia/Mt.Holly's take on Fridays heavy rain and severe weather potential.

On Friday, the main synoptic system will begin impacting the local  
  region with deep southerly flow advecting considerable moisture  
  poleward from the Gulf of Mexico. There does not look to be a well- 
  defined cold front with this system, but it will probably have more  
  of a convective cold pool driven surface boundary slowly approaching  
  the area later in the day. Convection is expected to be ongoing  
  along this boundary as it approaches throughout the day. As  
  previously mentioned, the general trend in the latest guidance has  
  been overall slower with this progression, and thus I have slowed  
  the onset of the higher PoPs from west to east. 
   
  As far as impacts go, we are still anticipating that there will be  
  at least a marginal severe weather threat with any more robust  
  thunderstorms that are able to organize. Deep layer effective shear  
  values will be around 30-35 kts, which will support at least some  
  organization of convection, especially into the afternoon and  
  evening when surface based instability will likely be the highest.  
  Instability will likely not exceed 1000 J/kg or so, but there will  
  be plenty of forcing. So even a few hundred J/kg of instability will  
  be sufficient in supporting organized/sustained convection. Wet  
  microbursts with locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be the  
  most probable severe weather threat. The deep stacked southerly flow  
  will support training and back-building of convection as well. With  
  PWats rising into the 1.4"-1.8" range (potentially record breaking  
  values for May 27th), heavy rain and thus flash flooding will likely  
  become an increasingly probable threat with this system somewhere  
  across the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. However, there is still  
  too much uncertainty regarding placement and timing of this potential  
  threat to get into the details. We are currently forecasting  
  widespread QPF around a half inch, but totals could locally exceed  
  one inch where ever convection trains over the same area. SPC 
  has introduced a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms in our 
  area for Friday and WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive  
  rainfall. 

[Rtd208]

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny. It will be cool for the season. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 74°

Cool weather will persist through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.0°; 15-Year: 75.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.8°; 15-Year: 77.4°

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of May are averaging 70degs.(62/78) or +3.

Month to date is  62.5[+0.2].       May should end near  64.2[+1.0].

Reached 67 here yesterday.

Today: 64-68, wind e. to s., clouds and sun, 56 by tomorrow AM.

As nutty as GFS Ts are, it is the EURO with a HW from 5/31---6/05-----about the time of the GFS TS.

57*(74%RH) here at 7am.          61* at Noon.      63* at 3pm.       64* at 4pm.      Reached 68* at 7pm.      59* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

Memorial Day weekend is on track to follow the post 15-16 super El Niño script. At least one day with rainfall. Best chance for rain this year appears to be on Saturday with improvement by Sunday or Monday. 
 

Memorial Day weekends at Newark with Memorial Day bolded

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2021-05-29	52	0.58
2021-05-30	53	1.15
2021-05-31	76	T

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2020-05-23	71	0.79
2020-05-24	68	T
2020-05-25	73	T

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2019-05-25	70	0.00
2019-05-26	90	0.20
2019-05-27	82	0.00

 

Go

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2018-05-26	92	0.00
2018-05-27	78	0.87
2018-05-28	71	0.00

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2017-05-27	74	0.00
2017-05-28	71	T
2017-05-29	61	0.14

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Precipitation
2016-05-28	96	0.00
2016-05-29	88	0.03
2016-05-30	83	1.57

 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

record heat for early June would be near 100

hopefully deep westerly flow or some more of this onshore stuff?

Yep, when it comes to early June heat there's 1925 and then there's everything else.

 

[LoboLeader1]

60 here as of 9AM. High yesterday here was 67.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Yep, when it comes to early June heat there's 1925 and then there's everything else.

The benchmark for early June heat in our area was 2011 when the Newark suburbs hit 103°.

Data for June 1, 2011 through June 10, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	103
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	102
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	101
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	99
NY	BRONX	COOP	97
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	97
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	96
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	96
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	96
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	95
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	95

[nyrangers1022]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first few days of June  could be hotter than this past weekend was. 850mb temperatures topped out closer to +20C. The 850 mb temperature forecast to start June is +22 to +24C with a 592 -594 dm heat dome.

  

Oof, work should be fun.  Next week we will be milling and paving 2 roads. Nice, hot and dusty milling,  and then laying blacktop a day later.  Hopefully my work dumptruck AC keeps up 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, are the lack of these deep westerly flow events due to the high now pushing further north?

Also, for the past two springs in particular, we've had a long stretch of dry low humidity weather, and as a result my allergies came to an early  Is that because of more spring blocking in the last two years?

 

Yeah, the extension of the ridge into SE Canada has been pushing extreme severe storms further north than usual for this time of year.

 

[FPizz]

47 this morning

[Rjay]

Dropped down to 49 last night. 

[ForestHillWx]

48 at my place. Enjoying these days before the heat miser returns. 

[winterwx21]

12z GFS and GGEM have some rain for saturday, but clear it out for sunday. Obviously it would be great to have all 3 days nice, but 2 out of 3 for a holiday weekend isn't too bad.

[MJO812]

Cape cod is beautiful 

In Provincetown right now 

[nycwinter]

so cool last night had to have heat on...

[forkyfork]

21 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

so cool last night had to have heat on...

wow that's amazing

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Friday will be unsettled days with some showers and thundershowers, especially on Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and then warm up on Friday.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.0° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +25.45 today. The old record was +19.32, which was set in 2018.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.735 today.

On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.814 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.742 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and still cool for the season. A shower is possible during the evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 74°

Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. It will turn warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 74.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.3°; 15-Year: 76.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 77.7°

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of May are averaging 75degs.(64/85) or +8.

Month to date is  62.5[+0.1].       May should end at  64.9[+1.7].

EURO has recovered from the fever and the GFS has caught it----- ending May at 101!

Reached 68 here yesterday.

58*(79%RH).        63* at Noon.          66* at 3pm---has clouded over      Reached 68* at 5pm, sun reappeared.         64* at 7pm.

[bluewave]

Memorial Day may make a run on 90° in the usual warm spots.

[Brian5671]

16 hours ago, nycwinter said:

so cool last night had to have heat on...

[SnoSki14]

Looks hot next week for a few days then blocking kicks in and we cool for a while. 

[MJO812]

Martha's  Vineyard 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Memorial Day may make a run on 90° in the usual warm spots.

And as usual it’s probably too cool in much of NYC/N Shore unless there’s a strong onshore flow. We hit low 90s up here last weekend which was above any model I saw and it’s a consistent theme. 

[nycwinter]

it was in the 50's again last night in the city that is cool for me maybe i should close the windows so i don't have to have the heat on?

[FPizz]

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it was in the 50's again last night in the city that is cool for me maybe i should close the windows so i don't have to have the heat on?

Ummm yeah.  

48 last night here.  

[forkyfork]

knyc's low was a whole 4 degrees below average. brrr

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Martha's  Vineyard 

Good morning Anthony. As frugal children of the early 70’s the best my lost love and I could do was the Poconos. We never lost the precious memory. A lovely photo of you and your love. If the forum still exists you should repost it during the nations tri centennial year as your celebrating your 54th. Stay well, as always ….

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And as usual it’s probably too cool in much of NYC/N Shore unless there’s a strong onshore flow. We hit low 90s up here last weekend which was above any model I saw and it’s a consistent theme. 

It may be related to the coarse model resolution unable to pick up where the actual sea breeze front is located. The Euro had low 90s near Commack on Saturday. But it missed the 90° at ISP. It will be interesting to see how the model performs when they increase the resolution to around 4km in the coming years. 

One of the features of the raw Euro 2m forecast is that it sometimes limits the 90° temperatures to Monmouth County like it has on Monday. But when the flow is SW, those 90° readings often end up expanding north from EWR to LGA and the North Shore. The mid 90s it forecast for CNJ on Saturday made it up to EWR and Central Queens. The raw ECMWF also has too much of an onshore flow bias at Newark .

The NWS MDL lab used to generate ECMWF MOS. So it corrected the raw 2m and wind direction biases. Similar to the GFS and NAM MOS. I am not sure if they still have that on their AWIPS terminals.

Most model raw 2m temperature forecasts are too cool when there is strong WAA and full sun away from the immediate sea breeze. So we can get a better idea of the high temperature potential from the 850mb temperatures.

The future of all modeling may be machine learning automatically correcting model biases beyond what the current MOS does. So in the meantime, we have to try and adjust the models manually to correct their known biases.