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May 2022


bluewave
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Parts of the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s and 90s today. Temperatures included:

Baltimore: 90°
Norfolk: 94°
Philadelphia: 87°
Raleigh: 96° (old record: 94°, 1938)
Richmond: 97° (old record: 96°, 1934)
Washington, DC: 89°
Wilmington, NC: 95° (old record: 94°, 2000)

That heat will expand into the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Some additional showers and thundershowers are likely overnight as the warm front pushes across the region.

Following the frontal passage, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +15.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.530 today.

On May 18 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.264 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sorta. I was shoeless, shirtless and had all the windows (and roof) open. This was before I had cars with electric windows so I had to stop and run around the car closing stuff barefoot in heavy snow. It kinda sucked :) The 85° difference in an hour was pretty cool though ;)

It's why Rapid City and Spearfish fascinate me, they get all these extremes in a short time.

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

In today’s climate the stars don’t have to be perfectly aligned for mid/upper 90’s. Granted it’s only May, but still.

Not getting to 100 is rather annoying.

How much climate change do we need to get at least 1 100 day every year on Long Island?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(62/82) or +6.

Month to date is  60.7[-1.1].     Should be  64.0[+0.9] by the 29th.

Reached 68 here yesterday.

Today:  88-94, wind w., cloudy, foggy till Noon, then m.suuny, -10 degrees for coastal areas, 73 tomorrow AM.

btw: That 'Nutty' T outburst from last evening, is down 15 degrees across the board now.    Still 97,95 this weekend however.

61*(99%RH) here at  7am FOG<0.1mi.    68* here at 10am., hazy blue and about 5mi. visibility.     Could not even see the early arrivals passing my building in the half-marathon till 9:30am.        72*(95%RH) at Noon.      74* at 1pm.     71*! at 2pm.      69*! at 3pm.      75* at 4pm.     Finally hit 80* at 5pm.      Reached 83* at 5:30pm.        79* at 7pm.

 

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11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i am quite sure this fog was not predicted for this morning it looks more dense then yesterday morning..

The dense fog this morning was predicted by the models and we were discussing it.  The HRRR forecast from yesterday is below showing the dense fog for this morning.

9C2197BD-9C59-4C82-ADB8-EC34D5BEAD63.thumb.gif.168c04533ac8efdb37dbcb3299111d11.gif

 

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds and fog will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s along the Connecticut shore to middle 90s in parts of New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 95°

Philadelphia: 95°

Tomorrow will be another hot day before a cold front brings noticeably cooler weather starting Monday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 74.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.7°; 15-Year: 76.4°

Daily Records for May 21:

Baltimore: 96°, 1934

Harrisburg: 95°, 1941

New York City-JFK: 90°, 1962 and 1996

New York City-LGA: 93°, 1996

New York City-NYC: 93°, 1996

Newark: 96°, 1996

Philadelphia: 95°, 1934

Washington, DC: 95°, 1934

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