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April 2022


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Fast pattern changes coming up on the models. Cool weekend is followed by a brief warm up next week. Then the blocking returns for a cooler week 2. So a stormy pattern for the US with a clash of air masses. Looks like the CONUS is already off to the fastest start to the spring tornado season in the Doppler era with the big temperature swings.
 

EPS 

Apr 11-18

2C53255E-71F2-4A3B-974B-579BBA033702.jpeg.6e4e96068c3cb3788eba08519a96e25c.jpeg
 

Apr 18-25


28E8CEDC-5C01-419C-BA04-B81C655C447A.jpeg.76021f7312b86d63b14f989052ad988a.jpeg

 

 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

Yeah I have no idea what he is talking about.  The metro isn't just NYC.  Not a bust at all, in fact you could say it was a high bust for some of us if anything.

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48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

I had alot of rain last night 

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when i went to sleep last night nyc had less then 2/3 of rain.. the forecast said rain should end about midnight.. all of a sudden checking the numbers this morning more than a half inch of rain and in some places fell since then in manhattan..

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

Yeah, the SPC HREF did another very good  job. It had 3.00”+ in NNJ which verified. The heaviest totals were always forecast to be just NW of NYC. But upper Manhattan managed to sneak in 2.00. The best we can ask for with convection is to get the general area of the max and amounts correct. Outside the max, it doesn’t really matter that much if the totals don’t exactly match up since the flood potential was lower in those areas anyway. The important part is that the guidance is good enough for the flood potential to outlined ahead of time. 

 

44B71D51-71AA-49D5-9DFF-308FC64975C6.thumb.jpeg.290d2d50f8f9ba2a23c2317f4b0da862.jpeg

 

Ridgewood                    3.79 in   0235 AM 04/08   CWOP
Lyndhurst                    3.75 in   0348 AM 04/08   Trained Spotter
Ridgewood                    3.67 in   1200 AM 04/08   Trained Spotter
1.8 N Wyckoff                3.49 in   0210 AM 04/08   COOP
Fair Lawn                    3.27 in   0240 AM 04/08   CWOP
Oakland                      3.10 in   0230 AM 04/08   CWOP
Paramus                      3.01 in   0245 AM 04/08   AWS

 

Washington Heights           2.02 in 
  0240 AM 04/08   AWS

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

jersey got slammed

You're not kidding.  I had to pull over a couple of times on my way home.  The rain was coming down so hard that you could hardly see in front of you and there was no way to tell which lane of traffic you were in.  Vivid and frequent lightning also.

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

I got 3.5 inches over the 2 days. Opposite of a bust here.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Fast pattern changes coming up on the models. Cool weekend is followed by a brief warm up next week. Then the blocking returns for a cooler week 2. So a stormy pattern for the US with a clash of air masses. Looks like the CONUS is already off to the fastest start to the spring tornado season in the Doppler era with the big temperature swings.
 

EPS 

Apr 11-18

2C53255E-71F2-4A3B-974B-579BBA033702.jpeg.6e4e96068c3cb3788eba08519a96e25c.jpeg
 

Apr 18-25


28E8CEDC-5C01-419C-BA04-B81C655C447A.jpeg.76021f7312b86d63b14f989052ad988a.jpeg

 

 

I'm getting different signals from the other models. Next week doesn't look like it'll be as warm as it did in the models released earlier in the week. On the other hand Week 3 doesn't look like it'll be as cold as this week was.

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EKE!    This is our warmup next week?       I think this is the warmest 5-Day period in the next 30 days too.      Week 3 looks real cold east of the Mississippi River.       Then,  as these LR entities must do mathematically, it comes closer to normal with time----but retains the same overall look through the rest of its output......

  1650153600-I7qbsF8ZDts.png

Week 3: (of April)

1650585600-IJzl7CDza1E.png

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we could see 70s on Tuesday with the warm downslope flow. Then a possible backdoor for Wednesday. This is followed by a warm front for Thursday. 

624C7DBB-C376-4C44-BDEF-CFE8DAF59255.thumb.png.f46b83a2e30fc3b6112a6e09c2d47fb4.png

772C98C9-328E-47E8-984E-3DE2178EE1D4.thumb.png.7cdc83ad5e83cfd291fa75db8dc8c3d5.png

C73BDB91-12F5-482C-B428-C2066A20FB04.thumb.png.d628b536bf45ba77f18b70562bffd113.png

 

Hard to call Thursday a "warm" day in that scenario. The models virtually all have given up on any warmth on Thursday as clouds are starting to get in the way, and Wednesday's looking increasingly unlikely to be warm as well. Still a shot for Tuesday though.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we could see 70s on Tuesday with the warm downslope flow. Then a possible backdoor for Wednesday. This is followed by a warm front for Thursday. 

624C7DBB-C376-4C44-BDEF-CFE8DAF59255.thumb.png.f46b83a2e30fc3b6112a6e09c2d47fb4.png

772C98C9-328E-47E8-984E-3DE2178EE1D4.thumb.png.7cdc83ad5e83cfd291fa75db8dc8c3d5.png

C73BDB91-12F5-482C-B428-C2066A20FB04.thumb.png.d628b536bf45ba77f18b70562bffd113.png

 

With the trough hanging strong east of here/the Maritimes it’s more likely than not we have a back door front at least nearby. They always seem to be more sweeping than advertised 4-5 days out as well. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

First 70+ day for JFK on Tuesday?

 

Possible if the seabreeze can be held off. You really need the west/NW wind this time of year for any warmth at the coast. Today was great here for once with temps in the mid 60s. 

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30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite all this "blocking" I'm still willing to bet we score another AN month.

I'm gonna guess some places hit 80F next week on one or more days

GFS is an outlier with a very warm Thursday. They're going all in on no low clouds to block the warmup.

Other models have the warmth peaking on Tuesday in the low 70s.

The 2nd half of April would have to resemble 2020's to get to BN.

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Rain will return tomorrow. Showers and periods of rain are likely. Readings will be confined to the 50s tomorrow and Sunday, even Sunday is partly to mostly sunny.

Noticeably warmer air will likely move into the region early next week. The warmth will likely continue through much of the week before cooler air returns.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +22.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.038 today.

On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.516 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.530 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.9° (0.2° above normal).

 

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Mondays and Thursdays are by far the most important days for me on the forecast, given that's when I go to classes. There's also Wednesdays but I'm usually just there for a morning class and out so it's considerably less important to me.

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The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(47/63) or +2.

Reached 65 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today: 54-56, wind w., quick AM shower, improving skies, 45 by tomorrow AM.

50*(74%RH) here at 7am.     53* at 9am.      52* at 10am.      Reached 62* at 5pm.      49* at 9pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy with some showers. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 59°

Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 60.0°; 15-Year: 60.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.2°; 15-Year: 62.8°

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