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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GFS goes from 48 to 29 and snow from 12z Saturday to 18z Saturday.  FUN!

Oh boy, all we need is a 20F drop in 6 hours of daylight in mid March. Lock this up!

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh boy, all we need is a 20F drop in 6 hours of daylight in mid March. Lock this up!

Only 19...big difference :wub:

 

I've never been more confident in something not happening...lol

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17 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Only 19...big difference :wub:

 

I've never been more confident in something not happening...lol

As we know it is rare to happen but if any set up can do it this is the one. Saturday is far from impossible. @MillvilleWx talked about how potent this front is. Since his post the models have trended much colder. 

As always we'll see!

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15 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

As we know it is rare to happen but if any set up can do it this is the one. Saturday is far from impossible. @MillvilleWx talked about how potent this front is. Since his post the models have trended much colder. 

As always we'll see!

Well, it's pretty clear that we'll have some blast of cold come in on Saturday.  The key is, does the frontal wave develop "in time" for us or not?  That low does blow up as it moves rapidly northeast.  But we'd need it to be in a place that is still giving us precip when it does cool off.

ETA:  Best example offhand that I can think of is March 5, 2015.  Which was probably about as perfect a scenario as you can get.  Cold front moved through early in the morning with rain, there was a lull, and then the wave moved through dumping 6"+ snow on us in about 6 hours or so.

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Just now, CAPE said:

1647108000-b2c9TeGPfmc.png

good trends....and arctic air...good combination to end winter on a high note. A few more good trends like this and this could be a winter storm warning event lol

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, it's pretty clear that we'll have some blast of cold come in on Saturday.  The key is, does the frontal wave develop "in time" for us or not?  That low does blow up as it moves rapidly northeast.  But we'd need it to be in a place that is still giving us precip when it does cool off.

ETA:  Best example offhand that I can think of is March 5, 2015.  Which was probably about as perfect a scenario as you can get.  Cold front moved through early in the morning with rain, there was a lull, and then the wave moved through dumping 6"+ snow on us in about 6 hours or so.

I can think of several other examples. Unfortunately I have to run out on an appointment. If I remember I'll list a few later.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

you're such a baby ;) 

It really was a fantastic storm. 

Jan 1996 was amazing too. And I can remember that one very well because I had just gotten over the chicken pox, and then it snowed and school was out for a week. So I got to play with friends, while both my sisters were stuck at home with the chicken pox I had given them. :lol: 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro and gfs look pretty cold for Sunday morning 

Snowcover enhanced to be sure, but the airmass looks cold. And transitory. Seems like 10s are a good bet for areas outside the metro corridor even without snowcover. Inside metro corridor, probably need snowcover to get that cold Sunday. 

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh boy, all we need is a 20F drop in 6 hours of daylight in mid March. Lock this up!

Actually… 19 degrees in 6 hours is really not a huge deal. March, April, July. Doesn’t matter. It happens and happens pretty often. Especially up this way. 

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9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Actually… 19 degrees in 6 hours is really not a huge deal. March, April, July. Doesn’t matter. It happens and happens pretty often. Especially up this way. 

It's not like where you live is all that much different than where many of the rest of us live. You drop 19 degrees, we drop 19 degrees. It's just that you might start a few degrees lower than others and the front comes through your area earlier than it does farther south and east.

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It's not like where you live is all that much different than where many of the rest of us live. You drop 19 degrees, we drop 19 degrees. It's just that you might start a few degrees lower than others and the front comes through your area earlier than it does farther south and east.

C'mon dude, Carroll County is the northern hinterlands. Way up north. With mountains and stuff.

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