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February 25th Wintry Mix OBS THREAD


The 4 Seasons
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m kidding, but you’re using recent confirmation bias to come up with this assumption. 

I'm just thinking about it.....we really don't know exactly how climate change will manifest....we have theories. If more latent heat creates ore frequent and stronger coastals, it stands to reason that there could be more sinking air inland immediately adjacent to said bonanzas.

Sure, if I get 80"+ next three years, while you struggle to 35", then we can laugh it off.

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

warmer SSTs could argue for stronger systems off the coast, and bigger storms, but why interior SEMass as the bullseye. I sorta like the theory of the warmer SSTs promoting more dual low systems chasing convection vs wound up inland runners but that could also be a recency bias observation

I’d argue the south shore is probably most anomalous. 

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Would the shift east in snowfall as you've been discussing be related to warming, not just the AGW type but natural variability from the 1961-90 average to 1991-2020, upstream at Toronto I have that calculated to be around 1.5 F deg almost none of which would be urban heat island and only a fraction AGW (but even if all AGW, same argument) -- with less intense cold draining out of eastern Canada, cold air damming over southern New England in today's type of storm would be less robust on average. Of course there could be specific exceptions. Can somebody give me one or two good examples of heavier snowfalls in CT from similar coastal transfer type synoptics? I could have a look at what was happening upstream in those cases. If you wanted an even larger scale explanation, the temperature changes for Toronto probably reflect changes in the Pacific anomalies. 

This really wasn’t a coastal transfer. It was overrunning. There are no examples of heavier snowfalls in CT in these events. They simply don’t occur. Stellwagen bank is getting crushed though. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The old days of the 80’s growing up . NW CT always jacked . There were never the E  Mass jacks other than the rare blizzard of 78 type storm . It was always the deep interior. So something has definitely shifted over these past 25 years. Even my area now.. I have done better than I ever used to do . I’d always get like 14-16 in the biggies . Over the last decade I have jacked or come close more than ever . The pattern has definitely shifted east 

You are absolutely correct. I never knew about the NE hills until the December 1992 event where the first part was all elevation dependant in CT

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That if the area I would choose to benefit most...CJ areas.

Yeah even just SE of me. Rockland to Marshfield. 
 

But 30 years from now, I doubt we’d see this anomaly continue.  
 

I will say today’s event is a weird one. The thump really helped near pike and just south. 

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50 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

LOL In NNE, anything is possible in the winter...until the evidence thaws in the spring.

That is a stone cottage we had built on our land by this great old-timer stone mason.  He can barely walk his knees are so bad, but he is a great guy and fantastic with stone.  All built from on old stone pile at the bottom of a field.  We did this before we were sure we would build a house, so we would have a place to hang out on the land.  It was our whiskey cottage, where we would keep a really good single malt scotch and some nice glasses.

that’s pretty awesome. I’m jealous 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah even just SE of me. Rockland to Marshfield. 
 

But 30 years from now, I doubt we’d see this anomaly continue.  
 

I will say today’s event is a weird one. The thump really helped near pike and just south. 

Well, what is your average since 2000-2001? Bet its waaay above average, where as mine is normal, so we have already seen in for like 22 years....

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1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

dude, finally someone who gets it, it's all wavelengths man, even traffic moves in waves, I've finally gotten my wife to understand this too, and reasons why we either get along with people or don't because of phase shift... anyway back to weather, wind is roaring here now, definitely looks and feels like winter out there, 25/17 with 15 sustained and a 25 gust last five minutes

The ocean taught me a lot.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

LOL In NNE, anything is possible in the winter...until the evidence thaws in the spring.

That is a stone cottage we had built on our land by this great old-timer stone mason.  He can barely walk his knees are so bad, but he is a great guy and fantastic with stone.  All built from on old stone pile at the bottom of a field.  We did this before we were sure we would build a house, so we would have a place to hang out on the land.  It was our whiskey cottage, where we would keep a really good single malt scotch and some nice glasses.

That's a great story. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s leaf blower snow after a “denser” 10:1 to begin with, ha.  J.Spin’s last 6 hour reading of 6.9” on 0.22” water for a 31:1 ratio was widespread this afternoon… sparkling fluff.

I'll take my next core after dinner, but it'll probably be in that 30:1 ballpark.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It shifted east in the grand scheme . Your location does well but proximity to ocean and natural oceanic influence limits how well you do in relation to areas in general proximity to you where the ocean doesn’t hinder them as much as it does you . But you still avg above normal .. it’s all relative 

It all starting shifting east when I moved to Moosup in 2000. AGW All Ginx Warming

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