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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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11 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”)

Like when the news reports the findings of a medical study that has been published. Most people have no idea what it means. Great, but explain it!

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20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I think it got stuck...lol If it is indeed wrong that would take it from a winning g record to about .500...lol 

I’m fairness to the Gfs this is not the kind of setup where it should be used anyways. We wouldn’t even think to use it to place meso scale features in a larger scale storm. This is no different just makes it look worse since there is no larger synoptic feature to hide its meso scale deficiencies within. 

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner.

Dunno I still think it’s been less jumpy since the upgrade. It still has flaws but if you know when to adjust for them it’s been less prone to crazy tangents. Those are what used to drive me crazy. I can account for a models errors so long as it’s somewhat consistent.  But it’s back to being second best to the euro that’s for sure. It was always more the euro had a rough patch making the Gfs seem better by comparison. That said I do think the Gfs is incrementally better now. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno I still think it’s been less jumpy since the upgrade. It still has flaws but if you know when to adjust for them it’s been less prone to crazy tangents. Those are what used to drive me crazy. I can account for a models errors so long as it’s somewhat consistent.  But it’s back to being second best to the euro that’s for sure. It was always more the euro had a rough patch making the Gfs seem better by comparison. That said I do think the Gfs is incrementally better now. 

It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not.

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6 minutes ago, Hawk said:

Chris is a solid Philly area Pro Met.  We all fear this in La Nina.  

You know what bring the spring.   Faster we get there the faster we get to next winter and hit the reset.  Just gotta get through the next 9 months.  

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not.

 

It sucks with mesoscale events...this is an event which 30 years ago the forecast would likely have no snow except for probably SE MA with the coastal...no models back then would have had the resolution to see the band of snow generated from DC up to NYC.  The modern day GFS can sort of see that band but its misplacing it or thinking its going to be less significant.  The NGM/LFM/AVN  though probably would have had a totally dry forecast

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

CWG Isn’t enthusiastic. Coating to 2” with 3-6 possible in the mountains. 

1-2” seems to be the general consensus among all local media. Wbal, despite their chief met tweeting a model showing 3-6, went 1-2 for tomorrow. Will probably be areas that see more depending on banding, however. 

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