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February 2022


cleetussnow
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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead

Major is 6" or more to you correct?  4" happen infrequently but not a complete fluke up to the first 10 days of April.  6"+ events are very rare after 3/20 though

 

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3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. 
 

I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. 

the 1930s were awesome except for that darned Dust Bowl era lol

 

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3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s a very fascinating subject I wish more people looked into with interest. It’s actually incredible how many regional and worldwide events were influenced by large scale volcanism, and completely unknowingly until recent times. 
 

The easy ones are Thera (the Minoan eruption) and Vesuvius 79AD, but there have been many away from population centers that completely borked the climate for several years and caused massive crop failures leading to famines, disease, and political unrest. 

The Tierra Blanco Joven eruption around 530’s (Wiki) AD lead to one of the worst climate disasters in history, the massive Samalas / Rinjani eruption in 1257ish AD, the speculative Kuwae eruption in the 1450s, Huaynaputina in 1600, and then of course Laki, Tambora, and Krakatau. There are many more as well, most with slightly lesser effects. Pinatubo was the most recent significant volcanic climate alteration for a couple years in the 90s.

It’s the most interesting earth sciences topic I’ve ever studied, personally (along with paleo-geology / tectonics and of course meteorology). 

Maybe we need to develop technology to start controlling volcanoes so we dont go extinct one day

 

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Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential

one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block

there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that

this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5963200.thumb.png.d06223b28ed4b080fbeac1ed1fb41dca.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1645444800-1645920000-1646092800-20.thumb.gif.3d10e09bd8db54d72004193edb67236c.gif

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39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential

one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block

there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that

this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5963200.thumb.png.d06223b28ed4b080fbeac1ed1fb41dca.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1645444800-1645920000-1646092800-20.thumb.gif.3d10e09bd8db54d72004193edb67236c.gif

I think there was a storm in the early 90s with that setup. Front came south and juiced up to a 7 inch accumulation.

Have not seen it since.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Major is 6" or more to you correct?  4" happen infrequently but not a complete fluke up to the first 10 days of April.  6"+ events are very rare after 3/20 though

 

Hi

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1930s were awesome except for that darned Dust Bowl era lol

 

Please

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I am glad you are interested in this, Don!

Use

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That just means it will be a progressive storm and favor coastal areas.

by the way what is causing it to be so positive?

 

The

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

youve had double digit snowfall events there with a raging pos nao already this year lol

 

Multi-quote

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we need to develop technology to start controlling volcanoes so we dont go extinct one day

 

Function

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Milder weather has returned to the region. The above normal temperatures will persist until Thursday. Wednesday could be exceptionally mild.

Late in the week, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-2" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +12.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.172.

On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.817 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.4° above normal).

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Milder weather has returned to the region. The above normal temperatures will persist until Thursday. Wednesday could be exceptionally mild.

Late in the week, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-2" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +12.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.172.

On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.817 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.4° above normal).

 

 

 

Maybe more info on that possible snow event coming for early next week in future updates, Don?

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