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February 2022


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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be a massive squeeze play second week of March in the east. If that epo keeps pushing east will send the tpv south 

If only we had blocking for this event in Friday .

I remember we scored on a SWFE  along time ago. Not sure what year it was.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Clouds will begin to increase during the evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 58°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and mild with some periods of rain likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 45.5°

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If only we had blocking for this event in Friday .

I remember we scored on a SWFE  along time ago. Not sure what year it was.

Will depend where the epo ridge sets up. To far west it won’t matter how strong it is as systems will cut west. 
 

For Sunday Monday it will depend on the tpv diving in. It could kick the system out to sea 

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If only we had blocking for this event in Friday .

I remember we scored on a SWFE  along time ago. Not sure what year it was.

I think the larger issue is the preceding air mass. If we had an entrenched deep cold layer in advance we would easily get 3 to 6 before the changeover. 

In this case the cold barely gets in (and not that far south) before the storm arrives. 

Still a chance of 1 to 3 LI to 84. However, at this moment in time it could be less. 

Only time will tell.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will be interesting to see if this wave makes it to phase 7 by the 15th.

1886658444_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(3).gif.22c50e20a504a1c04773ee919bfb348b.gif

Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead

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1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

Finally found something but here's Wednesday record highs for a bunch of areas. 

KLGA:  66-1985

KJFK: 62-1990

Islip:  61-2012

Central Park: 72-1874 (wow) 

Upton: 50-2017

Newark: 68-1985

Bridgeport: 60-2012

 

Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. 
 

I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. 

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17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. 
 

I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. 

Yeah it's crazy looking back at history with how large scale volcano eruptions affected the world for a bit, along with crazy temp swings.

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16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah it's crazy looking back at history with how large scale volcano eruptions affected the world for a bit, along with crazy temp swings.

It’s a very fascinating subject I wish more people looked into with interest. It’s actually incredible how many regional and worldwide events were influenced by large scale volcanism, and completely unknowingly until recent times. 
 

The easy ones are Thera (the Minoan eruption) and Vesuvius 79AD, but there have been many away from population centers that completely borked the climate for several years and caused massive crop failures leading to famines, disease, and political unrest. 

The Tierra Blanco Joven eruption around 530’s (Wiki) AD lead to one of the worst climate disasters in history, the massive Samalas / Rinjani eruption in 1257ish AD, the speculative Kuwae eruption in the 1450s, Huaynaputina in 1600, and then of course Laki, Tambora, and Krakatau. There are many more as well, most with slightly lesser effects. Pinatubo was the most recent significant volcanic climate alteration for a couple years in the 90s.

It’s the most interesting earth sciences topic I’ve ever studied, personally (along with paleo-geology / tectonics and of course meteorology). 

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