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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's not the GFS, but the 12z Euro does have more development of that wave in just a few days time. 

 

Honestly, not that far from what the 12z UKIE showed as well. I'd side with slower development over the next several days. This really could be one to watch since we're in that time of year when anything with some spin can absolutely take off in the WCARB.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-vort850_200barbs-4107200.png

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20 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Honestly, not that far from what the 12z UKIE showed as well. I'd side with slower development over the next several days. This really could be one to watch since we're in that time of year when anything with some spin can absolutely take off in the WCARB.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-vort850_200barbs-4107200.png

And sure enough, it took off on the 12z Euro. 

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Well we need the AEW to spawn a surface low before I get too excited, but obviously if we do see genesis out of this, the modeled potential is worth the superlatives. It appears the Atlantic got tired of the whining and woke up. If this and a few other systems pan out, we should push ahead of normal climatological ACE into an active season. But unless the Caribbean goes bonkers in October, I am pretty confident we won't eek out a hyperactive season at this point.

Here a nice tweet describing the setup for the potential future TC into the Caribbean.


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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Since we have reached quite a remarkable consensus, a lot could still change, but this would be a big win for the GFS. GFS has been sniffing this system out since the 12z run of September 15th. If it were to form, would be about 10-12 days of lead time which is excellent. 

 The Euro had this earlier than the GFS (back to 0Z 9/13 run) and it had a TS SE of the DR on the 0Z 9/14 run, which you can see here at 240 hours (with Fiona well to the north). It is the same wave:
 

8C38B860-2676-42CC-B2ED-21E468E29904.thumb.png.ef7ad7597d25e8d22fda6d243b447cbb.png
 

 Aside: the ICON and JMA also sniffed it out before the GFS on 9/14.

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7 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

6z GFS says Farewell and Adieu to Tampa/St Pete area.

Not far off from worst case track and surge scenario, albeit less intense.

We’ll see lots of these super bad simulations jumping around the map over the coming days.

As someone who has taught probabilities, there is no such thing as 'being due' for a storm or anything else.  But Tampa, well, its due..  

 

At this point, NOLA to hit Cuba and then OTS is possible.  If it even forms.

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18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET (12Z) has this as a TC per the textual output for the second time* as it was also on the 12Z 9/14 run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N  76.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.09.2022  144  13.6N  76.4W     1006            26

*Corrected to say this is the 2nd UKMET run with it rather than the first run

Regarding the AEW E of the Windwards, the 0Z UKMET is the 3rd run overall and 2nd run in a row with TC genesis. This has it occur 30 hours earlier than the prior run:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.8N  71.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.09.2022  108  13.6N  72.9W     1007            28
    0000UTC 25.09.2022  120  13.7N  75.0W     1005            26
    1200UTC 25.09.2022  132  13.3N  77.4W     1004            28
    0000UTC 26.09.2022  144  13.8N  79.7W     1002            29
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 8 AM TWO up to 10%/50% within 2/5 days now from 10%/40% on the 2 AM for the wave a few hundred miles east of the Windwards while 97L is up to 80%/80%.

 

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph.  Gradual 
development of this system is forecast during the next several days 
as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical 
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system 
moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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 The ACE for Sept to date is now up to 35.5, which isn't far from the average 1991-2020 MTD of low 40s. The 30 year average for the full September is 56. Looking at the model consensus, there's a very good shot at exceeding that. What a turnaround from the August shutout!

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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The ACE for Sept to date is now up to 35.5, which isn't far from the average 1991-2020 MTD of low 40s. The 30 year average for the full September is 56. Looking at the model consensus, there's a very good shot at exceeding that. What a turnaround from the August shutout!

This is why you never give up in regards to the tropics in August.

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