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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We shall see. Just like in sports, the fun part is the game is played and we get to see what happens.

It would be great if this played out like the Bills/Chiefs game.....Bring the goods late. :-)  I know that won't happen, but it's always good to wish. 

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5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah, good point. But at least in MBY inside the beltway, the ground has actually been frozen this year. That did not happen this year. Fingers crossed for an inch or two on the grass at least tomorrow afternoon/evening.

If you want decent accumulation during the day w temps at/just below freezing a good rule of thumb is having visibility under a mile. Light Snow with .75 mile visibility and 32f will accumulate while light snow with 2 mile visibility and 30f will struggle to accumulate ~10-3pm. 

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Obviously we're getting too close for major changes, but small shifts can bring some of us into a little more moisture from the coastal.

12z ICON is a little sharper than 06z. 12z RGEM is very similar to the decent 00z run.

I think every inch helps with relation to Fridays stuff even if we miss the main coastal (very likely).  I'll take positive tics the right way if it helps get friday to something like 2-4"

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6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I think every inch helps with relation to Fridays stuff even if we miss the main coastal (very likely).  I'll take positive tics the right way if it helps get friday to something like 2-4"

For sure.

I don't think anyone west of the bay should hang their hats on getting significant precip from the coastal. Anything to help wring out as much moisture as possible on Friday evening is the way to go.

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50 or so miles further west and the 12K NAM and would have dumped 8+ along 95 instead of 3. Likely 6+ on the Canadian as well.   

To say we know for sure what’s coming just isn’t accurate. Yeah, Baltimore and dc aren’t seeing a foot, but when VERY minor changes are the difference between 2-3” and 8-9”, that’s uncertainty. 

Sure, it’s much more likely than not we get either fringed or whiff, but it’s not a certainty at this point with so much volatility happening run to run; with the heavy stuff sliding JUST east of the bay. Especially not with 36 hours left before game time.

Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, down 3… will we win? Doubtful... but it sure as sh*t still happens from time to time when the stars align just right. 

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

50 or so miles further west and the 12K NAM would have dumped 8+ along 95 instead of 3”

To say we know for sure what’s coming just isn’t accurate. Yeah, Baltimore and dc aren’t seeing a foot, but when VERY minor changes are the difference between 2-3” and 8-9”, that’s uncertainty. 

Sure, it’s much more likely than not we get either fringed or whiff, but it’s not a certainty at this point with so much volatility happening run to run; with the heavy stuff sliding JUST east of the bay. Especially not with 36 hours left before game time. 

I'd like to think we can make up that 50 miles, but I think that's a lot to ask at this point given the convergence on a solution that we're seeing now. I agree, though, that if we could get things to go neutral/negative/closed off just a bit west/earlier then we could see much better snows form the coastal west of the bay.

I'd love to be wrong, but it seems a really tall order.

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